1. Chiefs to lean on Shady Sunday Night.
The world held its breath last Thursday night as Patrick Mahomes lay motionless on top of his lineman, writhing in pain. Luckily it was the best-case scenario (dislocated kneecap with no ligament tears) and Mahomes will be back this season. Although Mahomes is participating in practice this week, it’s all but assured he won’t play. Matt Moore is a capable backup who can throw a solid deep ball, but Kansas City is likely to lean more on the run then it has so far this season. That spells good things for LeSean McCoy, especially facing a Green Bay Packers run defense that ranks bottom-10 in rushing yards allowed per game (128.9) and rushing TDs allowed (7). Green Bay has also allowed an opposing running back to score double-digits (PPR) in every game this season. McCoy leads the Chiefs backfield with 38.5% of the offensive snaps, and the past two weeks McCoy has doubled Damien Williams‘s rushing attempts (20 to 10), and out-gained him 120 total yards to 26 for Williams. With a solid match-up and a firm grasp on lead-back duties, McCoy can be fired up as back-end RB2 as a bye week replacement or a rock-solid flex.
2. Now is your chance to sell Todd Gurley.
Todd Gurley has scored double-digit points in all but one game this sesaon but is far from the fantasy force he has been in the past. He hasn’t been especially productive this year, failing to rush for 100 yards in a single game so far, relying on a lofty TD total (6) to get him to a rank of RB18 through seven weeks. With that being said, a match-up with the Bengals league-worst rush defense is the perfect opportunity to sell Gurley while he still has value. The Bengals give up the most rushing yards per game (189), have given up the second-most rushing TDs (9), and has allowed four opposing running backs to score at least 20 points (five if you count Lamar Jackson rushing for 152 yards and a TD) and had a running back score at least 15 points every game this season. Gurley is a top-10 option this week and will likely have a productive game, but has a bye in week 9. I would recommend using the Bengals match-up as a bargaining chip to get out from under Gurley while you still can.
3. Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams both solid starts.Â
Last week I wrote the Packers backfield is going to be a headache with Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams splitting the backfield. Both had solid-yet-unspectacular games against a tough Oakland rush defense, both scoring double-digit points (PPR) but failing to score. This week however is a different story facing a Kansas City Rush defense that gives up the fourth-most rushing yards per game (148.9) and tied with Cincinnati for the second-most rushing TDs given up (9). Both contribute in the passing game as well, averaging 4 catches each in the past two games. Aaron Rodgers is scorching hot right now and the Kansas City defense will focus on trying to stop the passing game. Jones is a top-10 RB this week and Williams is a back end RB2 or a rock-solid flex. Both should have very productive games and I wouldn’t be surprised to see both score a TD.
4. Upgrade Corey Davis and A.J. Brown, Downgrade Derrick Henry.
With Ryan Tannehill under center in Week 7, Corey Davis and AJ Brown both had a season-high in targets (Davis – seven, Brown – eight) and receptions (Davis – six, Brown – six). Davis also caught a TD and scored 20 points for the second time this season. Next on the schedule for the Titans in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who rank dead last in passing yards allowed per game (304.5) and have given up 11 TDs through the air in six games. Both have had their value come back from the grave with Tannehill as the starter. As bad as the Buccaneers passing defense has been, the rush defense has been quite the opposite. Tampa Bay ranks as the top rush defense in yards per game (68) and hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher so far this season. Derrick Henry is still getting 19 rushing attempts per game, so the volume is there for a potentially solid game. But the match-up is a downgrade, going against Tampa’s elite rush defense.
5. Downgrade the Panthers offense.
You’re not benching Christian McCaffrey, even if he was going against the ’85 Bears. But he could be in for a long day against the 49ers, along with the rest of the Carolina Panthers. The San Francisco defense is one of the best in the league, second only to the Patriots in yards allowed per game (223.5), points per game (10.7), rank top 5 in sacks (20), fumble recoveries (6) and top 10 in interceptions (7). San Francisco is coming off a shutout of the Redksins in Week 7 and held their opponent under ten points every week since coming off of bye Week 4. D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel are both flex options at best, Greg Olsen is only startable because TE is a wasteland, and I would only start Kyle Allen if you have no other option. The 49ers are an elite defense and I’m benching every Panther not named McCaffrey this week.
6. D.K. Metcalf in a blow-up spot.
The Atlanta Falcons are one of the worst defenses in the NFL, currently giving up the sixth-most yards per game (387.7), tied for most passing TDs allowed (17), the fifth-most passing yards (274), and giving up the second-most total points per game (31.9). Needless to say, whoever is facing them is an automatic start in fantasy. Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, and Chris Carson are already every week starts and locked in as top-10 options at each of their respective positions this week. DK Metcalf is the player who gets the biggest bump. Metcalf is leading the league in end-zone targets (nine) and is coming off a season-high nine targets in Week 7. I expect the Seattle offense to use this game as a get-right game after being held in check by Baltimore. Metcalf is a rock-solid WR2 who’s capable of a huge game against the porous Falcons defense.
7. Don’t give up on Sam Darnold.Â
After upsetting the Cowboys in his return to action Week 6, Sam Darnold was brutal in Week 7, throwing for only 86 yards, no touchdowns, four interceptions, and a lost fumble. Darnold simply ran into the buzzsaw that is the Patriots defense. With that being said, Darnold has an absolute cake schedule coming up and can be picked up of waivers or traded for dirt cheap right now. Darnold’s Weeks 9-14 opponents are Miami, NY Giants, Washington, Oakland, Cincinnati, and Miami. That’s a mouthwatering schedule that should serve Darnold and the offense well. The Jets have a plethora of weapons in Robby Anderson, Jamison Crowder, Chris Herndon, and Le’Veon Bell and will be able to take advantage of the match-ups. Darnold is a solid QB2 the rest of the way who can be picked up for next to nothing. He’s going to have some blow-up games along the way
8. Trade the Patriots DST.Â
There is no doubt that the Patriots defense is one of the best, if not the best in the entire NFL. The DST has been the fantasy MVP so far this season, but they have had a laughably easy schedule. New England has played: Pittsburgh, Miami, NY Jets (without Darnold), Buffalo, Washington, NY Giants (without Barkley, Engram, and Shepard), and NY Jets again (with Darnold seeing Ghosts). I’m not saying swap the Patriots for peanuts, but some owners are willing to give up valuable position players for a DST. After this week’s match-up with the Browns, the Patriots face Baltimore, have a bye, then Philadelphia, Dallas, Houston, Kansas City, Cincinnati, and Buffalo. Granted, facing the Bengals and Bills in the last two weeks of the fantasy playoffs is delightful, but if you can get an every-week flex or better for a DST who’s certainly due for some regression and has a brutal schedule coming up, you jump on that every time. Put the Pats DST on the block and see what you’re able to get in return. Owners are overpaying, and there are plenty of DST’s available on waivers that you can stream.
9. Check into the availability of Nick Chubb.Â
Kareem Hunt is expected to return from suspension Week 10 and has been given the green-light to practice with the team. The panic is setting in for some Chubb owners, and Hunt truthers are starting to shout from the rooftops he’s going to jump right in and steal significant snaps. Take advantage of the panic, because it simply isn’t going to happen. Chubb is fourth in rushing yards (607), has the third-most rushing TDs (6), and ranks as the RB6 in PPR scoring. Not much has gone right for the Browns this season, but Chubb is one of the few things that have. Hunt will certainly get on the field and spell Chubb from time to time, and I wouldn’t be surprised to even see them on the field at the same time. But I expect Hunt to be more of a change of pace option than a significant threat. Chubb has been one of the most productive running backs in the NFL and has a fantastic rest of season schedule, topped off with fantasy playoff match-ups that include the Bengals and the Cardinals, two of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL. Use the pending return of Hunt as an opportunity to acquire Chubb.
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10. Look for options other than Carson Wentz.Â
You’re more than likely not going to have someone you can start over Carson Wentz (especially in super-flex leagues), but I would bench him if possible. He’s coming off an abysmal game against Dallas that saw him throw for only 191 yards, 1 TD, and an interception. His offensive line and receiving corps are banged up, and Philly is headed to Buffalo in what’s expected to be a cold, rainy day, facing a Bills defense that ranks top-5 in passing yards allowed per game (201.3) and only given up 4 passing TDs all season. There are several QBs I’d start over Wentz that I’d normally never consider: Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, Gardner Minshew II, Jacoby Brissett, even Ryan Tannehill. Wentz is in for a very long day in Buffalo, and I’m avoiding him at all costs.
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