1. Christian Kirk is a sneaky PPR play.
The San Francisco 49ers are one of the best defenses in the NFL, that’s not up for debate. They give up the least passing yards per game (128.7), are tied for second-lowest passing TDs allowed (2), and are allowing the second-lowest points-per-game to opposing offenses (11). So why am I recommending Christian Kirk as a PPR play? Simply put volume and opportunity. In the games he’s played (Kirk missed weeks 5-7 with an ankle injury) he leads the Cardinals in targets (47), receptions (32), and receiving yards (321). The Cardinals also field one of the worst defenses in the league, ranking bottom-three in points-per-game (27.9), dead last in yards-per-game (296.5), and have given up a league-worst 20 passing touchdowns on the season. I’m not expecting a huge game by any means, but Kirk is averaging 9 targets a game on one of the fastest-paced offenses in the league who is expected to be playing from behind. Fire up Kirk as a WR3 or flex play who I expect to score at least double-digit PPR points based on catches and yards, who could exceed expectations if he’s able to catch a touchdown. There will be garbage time aplenty.
2. Jaguars passing game in line for a big day in London.
I don’t have to tell you to start DJ Chark, he currently ranks at the WR5 on the season in PPR scoring. Gardner Minshew has been a revelation this season, he’s been startable as a low-end QB1 or solid QB2 option in Superflex. This week, however, he’s locked-and-loaded as a top option across the board. Minshew and the Jaguars are facing a Houston defense that is has given up the third-most passing touchdowns (18), fifth-most passing yards per game (276.8), only has 3 interceptions on the season, and just lost J.J. Watt for the season to a torn pectoral muscle. The Jaguars wide-receiver corps is banged up, Dede Westbrook left and didn’t return Week 8 versus the Jets due to neck and shoulder injuries, and Marqise Lee is out for the year after being placed on IR. If Westbrook plays he’s a solid flex play, but it’s not trending in the right direction. Chris Conley is a name to keep an eye on if Westbrook is out, a burner who found the end-zone in Week 8 on a 70-yard touchdown versus the Jets. Conley has 7 targets the past two weeks, compiling at least 80 yards in those games and has double-digit points games in which he’s received at least 5 targets, scoring over 20 points twice. If Westbrook is out, Conley takes his place as a solid flex play who has upside for a huge week in a potential shootout.
3. Matthew Stafford: QB1.
Many still shudder at the thought of having to start Matthew Stafford, but this year he’s been a diamond in the rough. He ranks as a top 10 fantasy quarterback, has thrown for 250 yards five out of seven games (one of which he threw for 245) and has 16 touchdowns to 4 interceptions on the season. With the injury to Kerryon Johnson, the backfield is a mess, which should lead to the Lions leaning more on the pass versus the run. That’s great news for Stafford with the Raiders up next, who have given up multiple touchdowns in all but two games this season (ELITE Joe Flacco and early season Kirk Cousins were the two unable to score more than once). The Raiders have gotten torched the past two games, giving up a combined 708 passing yards and 9 total touchdowns (eight passing, one rushing) to Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson. While I don’t this Stafford is in the same tier as those two, he is locked in as a QB1 and is in prime position to have a big game against a struggling Raiders pass defense.
4. Avoid the Lions backfield all together.Â
If Week 8 is any indication of what the plan is without Kerryon Johnson, the Lions running backs should be avoided altogether. The heir apparent everyone was blowing their FAAB on was Ty Johnson, who provided 25 rushing yards on seven carries to go along with one catch for 13 yards. The dark-horse PPR value people scooped up was J.D. McKissic, who rushed for a grand total of -1 yard on one carry and chipped in three catches for a whopping two yards. The back who had the most attempts and rushing yards? Tra Carson, who was claimed off waivers October 17th, compiling 34 rushing yards on 12 carries. Paul Perkins even chipped in 3 carries. This has the looks of a full-blown committee approach, and Detroit ranks in the bottom half of the league in rushing yards per game as well as only have 2 rushing touchdowns on the season. It’s in the realm of possibility that one of these backs (outside of Perkins, who was cut on 10/30/19) could have a productive game and return flex value, but good luck figuring out and starting the right player on the right week. This is a (very) poor man’s Patriots backfield, and one I’m avoiding completely.
5. Jordan Howard will run all over the Bears.
Jordan Howard gets to face his old team in Week 9, and this is not the Bears defense of old. This Bears defense has been fantasy-friendly to the running back position since losing Akiem Hicks, giving up 169 rushing yards to the Raiders, 151 to the Saints, and touchdowns to both Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler last week. Howard has proven to be the between the tackles early-down option for the Eagles, getting double-digit carries every week since Week 3. Miles Sanders banged up his shoulder Week 8, and Howard would get an even bigger bump if Sanders was forced to miss this game due to the injury. Howard is a high-end RB2 this week who jumps to a low-end RB1 if Sanders does indeed sit this week out. Howard is in a blowup spot and if Doug Pederson decides to feed Howard as he did against the Packers, Howard could wind up the RB1 overall this week. Start him if you have him.Â
6. Derek Carr will slay the Lions.Â
It’s been an interesting season for Derek Carr to say the least. He seems to finally be getting past the Antonio Brown drama and heating up the past two weeks, throwing for a combined 578 yards and 5 touchdowns against the Packers and Texans. His hot streak should continue this week against a Lions defense that gives up a league-high 289.7 passing yards per game and has given up 14 passing touchdowns on the year. The Lions also shipped their starting safety Quandre Diggs to Seattle, weakening an already suspect secondary and turning Detroit into a match-up fantasy owners are looking forward to for their quarterbacks. This game has shootout potential with suspect defenses and passing games that can put points on the board. Carr is a low-end QB1 who is a great stream for bye weeks, and a must-start in Superflex leagues.
7. Double-down on D.K. Metcalf.Â
Although there wasn’t much yardage last week, D.K. Metcalf delivered with two touchdowns on three catches. Metcalf has proven to be Russell Wilson’s favorite red-zone target and is among the league leaders with 11 red-zone targets through eight weeks. On deck is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who rank second-worst in passing yards per game (285.9), have given up 14 passing touchdowns, and has allowed an opposing receiver to score 17 or more PPR points in five of seven games. That includes over 20 three times and a monster 41 point performance to Michael Thomas in Week 5. Metcalf hasn’t accumulated a lot of yardage but is tied for the team lead with four touchdown receptions and is second in targets with 43. Don’t be surprised if Metcalf adds to his touchdown total this week, and fire him up as a WR2 who has boom potential for a very big day.
8. Passing of the torch in Cincinnati and Denver.Â
In a season that feels like every team in the league has started more than one quarterback this year, two more new starters were announced. Joe Flacco is out indefinitely with a neck injury, and Andy Dalton was benched. Ryan Finley will be the starter for the Bengals from this point on, and Brandon Allen for the Broncos. While both players have zero regular-season snaps, it may not be all doom and gloom. No, I’m not expecting either to be the next Tom Brady, but neither Dalton or Flacco was exactly lighting the world on fire. Dalton was performing much better than Flacco, throwing for 2,252 yards to Flacco’s 1,882. But both have thrown for less than 10 touchdowns on the year and have eight or more turnovers. I wouldn’t sell all your Broncos and Bengals just yet. I would actually put out a few feelers to see if a panicked owner is willing to sell the likes of Courtland Sutton, A.J. Green, and others for pennies on the dollar. This is a time to practice patience and let the situation unfold before cutting bait. In both cases, they can’t be much worse than their predecessors.
9. Start all your Jets.
The lucky winners of the weekly game “Who do the Dolphins play?” is the New York Jets, and it couldn’t come a better time for the sputtering offense. Much has been made of Sam Darnold “seeing ghosts” against New England Week 7, and he threw three more interceptions against a Jalen Ramsey-less Jaguars defense in Week 8. Miami is a cure for what ails, however, and all of the Jets are startable in some form or fashion. The Dolphins are tanking and are one of the worst defenses in the league, giving up the most points per game (34), and just placed their best CB Xavien Howard on season-ending IR. I’m not starting Darnold in 1QB leagues, but he’s an easy superflex/2QB start against a Miami defense that has given up multiple touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks in every game this season, including Case Keenum and Mason Rudolph. Robby Anderson is a WR3, while both Jamison Crowder and Demaryius Thomas (yuk) are both flex plays. The Dolphins give up the second-most yards per game on the ground (160.4) and have given up eight rushing touchdowns. Le’Veon Bell is locked in as an RB1 with potential for the top RB overall this week in a game where the Jets look to shake the cobwebs off from a difficult few weeks and get this offense back on track.
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10. Handcuff your studs.
At this point in the season its time to make sure you have your stud running back handcuffed. Don’t hesitate to drop low upside players who are a dime a dozen on the waiver wire (ex: Cole Beasley) to secure a handcuff, whether it’s yours or someone else’s. Thankfully no stud running back has had a season-ending injury so far, but there have been difference-making backups who have made noise the past few weeks. Chase Edmonds had standalone flex value even before David Johnson got hurt and put up 34 points in relief of DJ in Week 7. Latavius Murray put up 31 and 36 points in Weeks 7 and 8 in relief of Alvin Karmara. Heck, even Wayne Gallman was productive when given the touches, putting up 27 points when filling in for Saquon Barkley in Week 4. Volume is king in fantasy football, especially for the running back position that has very few bell-cow backs anymore. Whether you own the starter in front of the handcuff or not, Murray, Gallman, Tony Pollard, Alexander Mattison, Reggie Bonnafon, Rashad Penny, ALL need to be owned (Edmonds would be included if not injured). Dion Lewis, Gus Edwards, and Gio Bernard are guys who would step into a significant role but lack the volume potential and upside of those mentioned previously. If someone in your league doesn’t, pick up their handcuff and you could have a potential starting RB for free.
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