Derrick Henry is an RB1 for championship week in fantasy football.
Henry had 31 carries for 170 yards following his Week 14 17 carries for 238 yards. The Titans seem to want him to be the focal point of the offseason. We have seen Henry heat up late in the season before so maybe he just needs a half a season to get going. Anyway, he plays the Redskins in Week 16 who gave up over four yards-per-carry to Leonard Fournette and David Williams in Week 15. The Titans defense should keep the Redskins from scoring putting them in a run-first game script similar to Week 15 against the Giants.
Jamaal Williams is back to being the lead back for Packers.
Aaron Jones went down with an injury in Week 15 leaving the Packers with Williams as their lead back. Williams was the only player to get carries following the Jones injury in the game. We know Williams isn’t the best runner, but Aaron Rodgers will put the team in scoring position. It also helps that Rodgers got a little banged up in Week 15 so the Packers would be smart to lean on the run against a susceptible Jets defense. Williams is an RB2 in championship week with upside considering the Packers have no one else to run within their backfield.
The Vikings don’t want to pass the ball.
Early in the season, Adam Thielen looked like he would be the best fantasy WR in the league. With the firing of OC John DeFilippo, the Vikings attempted a season-low 21 pass attempts. To make matters worse Stefon Diggs ran the same percentage of routes from the slot as Thielen. The slot has been identified as a plus matchup for wide receiver across the league. Thielen is no longer the focal point of the offense. The Lions have been susceptible to the pass all year, but don’t expect the Vikings to try and take advantage of that. If the Vikings get out to an early lead expect them to become very run heavy and win with defense.
The Vikings do want to run the ball.
I just talked about how the change in offensive philosophy is hurting Adam Thielen and the other Vikings pass catchers. Well someone has to benefit from the change and that man is Dalvin Cook. In his last three games, he has seen 17, 18, and 20 touches. He has been particularly dangerous in the passing game where he as seen 10, seven, and two targets in the past three games. If the targets drop due to lack of passing plays, they are going to be made up for in additionally carries as we saw last week against the Dolphins. Week 16 the Lions without two defensive lineman starters in Ezekial Ansah and Da’Shawn Hand.
Christian McCaffrey has missed 21 snaps all season.
McCaffrey is the one and only do it all running back in the NFL. He can run, catch passes, and apparently even throw touchdowns as we saw in Week 15. Obviously, you are playing McCaffrey this week against a Falcons defense that loves to give up receptions to the running back position. I wanted to bring him up though because I don’t want people to forget how great he has been this year. Early discussions seem to talk about Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, James Conner, Melvin Gordon, and possibly Le’Veon Bell as the obvious top draft picks in fantasy next year. While all of those guys are very good there is a real argument to make McCaffrey the number one choice assuming Norv Turner is his OC again. We saw the Panthers bring in a veteran backup in C.J. Anderson and that didn’t remotely hurt McCaffrey’s value. Make a note to yourself now about how good McCaffrey was in 2018.
Nick Foles has the most success when targeting Alshon Jeffery.
When news broke that Carson Wentz was going to miss the Eagles Week 15 game, just about every offensive weapon besides Zach Ertz became unplayable. Well to the lucky people that starting Jeffery anyway were rewarded with eight receptions and 160 yards. Jeffery hasn’t topped 50 yards since Week 8. Foles has a 75% completion rate, 11.1 yards per attempt and an 8.3% touchdown rate when targeting Jeffery. All of those stats are better than the rest of the offensive weapons on the team. The Texans were a tough defense for wide receivers early in the season, but over the past six weeks, they are 25th in points given up to the wide receivers. Jeffrey has to be back in your lineup this week.
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Dak Prescott’s home passer rating is 111.3 vs. 78.9 on the road.
Prescott has been a bit up and down all year, but adding Amari Cooper was a big boost. The Dallas offense put up zero points as a team against the Colts in Week 15 on the road. Week 16 is a matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home. Dak and the passing offense should be able to put up points this week making Prescott a worthy streamer. Amari Cooper is also a WR2 after a down week last week.
The highest over/under of the week is the Steelers and Saints.
The Steelers head to New Orleans this week to take on the Saints. Vegas currently has the over/under at 53 points after opening at 56 points. Both these teams have only scored over 30 points once in the past four weeks. It seems like better are thinking this could be a trend and are taking the under. At least for the Saints, their under 30 games came on the road. The Saints have only not scored at least 30 points at home once this season. The Steelers don’t have a similar trend which means they may not put up the points people are expecting. The Steelers will have to throw to keep up with the Saints, but it may be tougher to run.
Josh Allen is a better play at quarterback over Tom Brady.
The Bills take on the Patriots this week. It is crazy to think that the better fantasy quarterback is rookie Josh Allen over future hall of famer Tom Brady. Allen’s rushing has been huge for his value every week. He has only thrown a maximum of 231 yards over the past four weeks, but add in three rushing touchdowns and an average of 87 rushing yards and you have a QB1. Brady, on the other hand, has only one game with three touchdowns over the same span. The Bills have been the number one team against fantasy quarterbacks over the past six weeks, and the Patriots are the middle of the pack.
The Seahawks may not be able to be run heavy against the Chiefs.
The Seahawks have somehow won games this year while being one of the league’s most run-heavy teams. Teams like the Chiefs win by passing and putting up large amounts of points. Even with the game in Seattle, the Chiefs will put up points on the Seahawks with their one seed and division title on the line. If the Seahawks can’t slow down the Chiefs offense they are going to have to unleash Russell Wilson as they have in years past. Wilson rarely passes much more than 20 times a game so we aren’t really sure what his production could be. Wilson has one of the higher chances to be the best QB of the week simply because he has been so efficient all year and now his volume should go up as well.
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