During week 11 the NFL reached heights that it may never attain again. That Monday Night game between the Chiefs and Rams was arguably the game of the year (especially for fantasy purposes). How do we possibly follow that up? Well, we have no choice but to look toward week 12 and the race to the fantasy playoffs. Here are 10 things that we learned in week 11.
Practice…You’re Talking About Practice?
Don’t worry, I will not go all Allen Iverson on you, but I will say that practice time in the NFL is important. This is especially true for the QB-WR relationship when it comes to aspects such as route timing and scramble drills. For Aaron Rodgers, these two aspects are very important to his game. Since the knee injury that he suffered in week 1, the Packers QB has not gotten very much practice time. This would not be so bad if receivers that he already had good chemistry with were available. We seeing that with Davante Adams who has certainly not skipped a beat with Rodgers’ limitations. However, with injuries to Geronimo Allison and Randall Cobb, Rodgers is having to put a lot of trust in rookies. While Equanimeous St. Brown and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have had some great games, there are times where neither is on the same page as their QB. Rodgers still managed 332 passing yards and 2 TDs so he should be fine. Adams and RB Aaron Jones are must-starts every week. What we learned in week 11, is that all the other Green Bay receivers are risky plays. In the difficult upcoming matchups (Vikings, Bears) St. Brown and Valdes-Scantling should remain on the bench.
Run the Bal(ti)More
Mark week 11 of the 2018 season as the time when the last of the first-round rookie QBs got his first start. Lamar Jackson produced a victory for the Ravens, but it was not in the fashion of most who play the position. Jackson was not spectacular in the passing going 13 for 19 for 150 yards and 1 INT. Those are really not great passing stats at all. His favorite weapon was Willie Snead who caught 5 of 8 targets for 51 yards. Unfortunately, Ravens receivers will probably not be playable in fantasy football if Jackson continues to start for Baltimore. However, the QB more than made up for it with his production on the ground. With even more carries (27) than he had pass attempts, Jackson gained 117 yards running the football. If those rushing attempt totals seem elevated, it is because they are. Cam Newton, who most would probably consider the best rushing QB in the NFL, has never run more than 14 times in a game. Jackson, almost doubled that it is career debut. His ability to run the football opened things up for the Ravens running attack in general. The biggest beneficiary to Jackson’ presence was…
Anyone’s Best Gus
…Gus Edwards? Ok, so that happened. I, like a lot of people, advocated for Alex Collins and his week 11 matchup in fantasy football. I wrote in my Yahoo DFS article that the Bengals were already one of the weakest run-stopping teams in the NFL. Add in a QB like Jackson who would require constant defensive attention, and you had a perfect recipe for Collins. Or so it seemed. Part of my prediction came true as the Ravens running attack operated with incredible efficiency. As a team, they gained 265 rushing yards in that game. What I had wrong was that Gus Edwards was the RB who got the biggest workload. The rookie RB carried the ball 17 times after only getting 15 rushing attempts in the team’s first 9 games. Edwards made the most of his opportunities by producing 117 rushing yards and 1 TD. It was not as if Edwards played simply because they are blowing out Cincinnati. This was a tight game until the end, and if the Ravens used him that often, it must be because they believe in him. He may have even usurped Collins as the lead RB in Baltimore. Collins only had 7 rushing attempts, and while he scored a TD, his 18 yards gained in very disappointing. Collins is a risky fantasy football play down the stretch. Edwards however, may have just made his way onto fantasy managers’ starting lineups next week as he takes on the Raiders.
For Whom the Bell (Doesn’t) Toll
Throughout the 2018 season, I have been tempted to write about James Conner in this article. He has performed quite well during LeVeon Bell‘s absence. What we learned during week 11 is that Bell will holdout for the entire season. We can now say with certainty that Conner will be a workhorse back for the remained of the season, including in the all-important fantasy football playoffs. What a week for me to select him as part of this article as he gained his second lowest yards from scrimmage total of the year. However, even with his struggles, Conner still received 15 touches. Coming off a concussion suffered in week 10 and the fact that the Steelers were down 16-0 in the 3rd quarter, probably played into the fact that Conner saw his third fewest touches of 2018. With a couple of great matchups against the Broncos and the Riders upcoming, Conner is a lock in fantasy lineups for the remainder of the season.
Detroit Rock City
We learned several things about the Lions defense. First off, we saw Kenny Golladay dominate the Lions’ target share. I was worried that as the main option, Golladay would see extra coverage and would not be able to produce. Instead, Golladay turned his 14 targets in 9 receptions for 113 yards and 1 TD, proving that he does not need another high-caliber receiver drawing away coverage. In the absence of Marvin Jones, both Bruce Ellington and T.J. Jones were on the field for over half of the Lions offensive snaps. Jones played in a season-high 69.2% of snaps. However, all of that extra playing time did not translate into production. Jones was only targeted once, which he caught for a 2 yard gain. Meanwhile, Ellington performed very well in his Detroit debut after being released by the Texans following week 3. He was second on the Lions in targets (9) receptions (6) and receiving yards (52) during their week 11 victory. After gaining Matthew Stafford‘s trust so quickly, I expect Ellington to cement his role as the #2 WR on Detroit for as long as Marvin Jones is out. I do preach a little caution as this could still be a rocky road in Detroit.
Brain over (E)Bron
Speaking of Detroit, a former Lions TE had a rough go in week 11. Not only did Eric Ebron failed to record a reception, but he did not even see a target. His only contribution to the stat sheet was 1 incomplete pass during the victory against the Titans. After scoring at a torrid pace during most of 2018, Ebron finally came back to Earth. His 9 TDs were quite extraordinary considering that he only saw more than 70% of the Colts offensive snaps in 4 games this season. All 4 of those were games that fellow TE Jack Doyle missed due to injury. In games where both played, Ebron had his highest snap count in week 1 (45.1%). Eventually, Ebron would stop defying the odds and clearly that was week 11. This is a lesson on following targets.
Another example of this is Jordan Reed. The Washington TE is leading the team in targets, but only had 1 TD to show for it before week 11. After getting peppered with another 11 targets against the Texans, Reed finally found the end zone for the first time since week 1. Regarding these TE, I feel a lot more confident playing Reed than I do Ebron. With the latter, I can easily see a repeat of what occurred against Tennessee.
Can’t Trust Titans
Speaking of the Titans offense, their offensive problems reared their ugly head once again. For starters, Marcus Mariota left with an injury that plagued him early this season. It finally seemed that this concern was behind him as they defeated the usually stout Patriots in week 10. Coming off of that victory, much was expected of the team going up against the Colts. Instead, they were not able to cope with the departure of their starting QB. As this has been a recurring theme in 2018, it is difficult to trust any Tennessee player in fantasy. In what I expected to be a great matchup, both Corey Davis and Dion Lewis were held to under 35 scrimmage yards each. As long as Blaine Gabbert is under center for the Titans, I would avoid playing everyone in the offense, if possible.
New Receiver for New Orleans
Drew Brees has traditionally been a QB that spreads the ball around. Certainly, he has a favorite target this year in the form of Michael Thomas and with good reason. He has caught 82 of his 91 targets, for a ridiculous 90.1% catch rate. Even in week 11, Thomas caught all 4 of his targets. So far this season, Alvin Kamara is second on the Saints in targets with 72. However, New Orleans operates best when they have a reliable 3rd option either to open up space for other receivers or to take advantage of the extra attention that his teammates are getting. Week 11 was a great example of the later as rookie WR TreQuan Smith saw 13 targets. He made good on those looks with 10 receptions for 157 yards and 1 TD. With two upcoming opponents ranked inside the top 5 in fantasy points per game allowed to WRs, Smith will have opportunities to produce. In games against the Falcons and the Buccaneers, the Saints can look to Smith as a way to exploit those secondaries. Thus, he should be worth starting in those weeks for fantasy football teams.
The Big Trubisky
With the 43 rushing yards that he gained in week 11, Mitch Trubisky became the leader among QBs for running yards this season. The rushing production has helped elevate potentially poor fantasy outputs into an acceptable outcome. In this most recent game, Trubisky only had 165 passing yards with 1 TD and 2 INT. That would equal between 8.6 and 6.6 fantasy points in most formats. The 43 rushing yards that he produced put him in double-digit fantasy points. While still not a great output, it was encouraging to see that he could still run well against a Vikings team that had given up the 9th fewest rushing yards to QBs entering the game. This rushing production will be big for fantasy managers with Trubisky on their teams. The Bears have hat appears to be several favorable matchups for the rest of 2018. That rushing upside mans that Trubisky can probably be started every week until the end of the season.
Rams Receivers Running Rabid
As expected Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods were the Rams top 2 targets. As for the question of who would replace Cooper Kupp in the offense, we learned that there is not one player that will replace him. The player stepping into to his spot on the field is WR Josh Reynolds. Reynold played in 97.5% of offensive snaps during the week 11 victory. He also saw 8 targets which were only 1 more than TE Tyler Higbee. While Reynolds did produce 80 receiving yards and a 1 TD, the biggest fantasy day belonged to TE Gerald Everett. Even on only 4 targets, Everett got into the end zone twice during the Rams victory over the Chiefs. While Cooks and Woods are the every week starters in fantasy, the other three receivers could be interesting plays down the stretch. This offense can explode on any given week. With upcoming games against the Bears and Eagles (even though the latter laid a dud in week 11) there may be games when Everett, Higbee and especially Reynolds are called upon to produce.
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Thank you for reading. For fantastic fantasy football advice, check out the rest of the content on Going for 2. If you have any comments or questions regarding this article, I can be found on Twitter @nyama_ks.
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