2015 Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Outlook

Key Fantasy Relevant Losses

• Dwayne Bowe
• Anthony Fasano
• Donnie Avery (if he remains unsigned by Chiefs)

Key Fantasy Relevant Additions

• Jeremy Maclin

Overview

The Chiefs have a special spot in my heart so I will start my AFC West fantasy outlook analysis with them.  The Chiefs as of now only have one can’t miss fantasy prospect in Jamaal Charles.  The addition of Jeremy Maclin and the increased playing time and experience of Travis Kelce should help the Chiefs passing game but that’s dependent on Alex Smith‘s ability and willingness to stretch the field.  The rest of the Chiefs receiving corps is a huge question mark from a fantasy standpoint, which I will discuss a little later in this article.

Quarterback

Alex Smith is the classic “won’t lose you the game but won’t win it for you either” type of quarterback.  He had fewer attempts of passes 10 yards or more down the field than any other starting quarterback in the NFL last season, which was probably the key factor in why the Chiefs didn’t have a single wide receiver who scored a touchdown last season.  But technically they should’ve had one to Bowe on the last week of the season but he fumbled it away just before he was going to score.  Despite this he still threw for 3,265 yards and 18 touchdowns with only six interceptions.  His low turnover rate helped the Chiefs finish 9-7 despite the low passing numbers.

While I don’t expect Smith to come out and throw bombs next season to atone for these statistics, he probably will attempt more passes down field with Maclin at receiver.  Andy Reid will make adjustments to the offense to make it more formidable outside of Charles.  Only time will tell if the promise of the passing game will be offset by the changes on the offensive line.  As of right now I only see Smith as a bye week replacement quarterback from a fantasy perspective.
Grade: C-

Running Back

The only backs on the roster that are of fantasy relevance right now are Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis.  Charles is arguably the best RB available in fantasy drafts this season.  To the chagrin of Charles owners at the beginning of last season, it seemed like the coaching staff was severely limiting his touches to keep him healthy for the duration of the season, in addition to missing a game early last season.  Toward the end of the season he started to put up Charles like numbers.  With this being a pivotal year for the franchise in terms of making a move in the AFC, expect Charles to get the ball early and often via ground and air.  Charles had five of his 14 touchdowns through the air.

Knile Davis is the perfect low risk-high reward type of pick you should consider taking towards the final rounds of 10 team drafts and a must have late in 12-14 team drafts.  In the one game Charles missed last season, Davis went off for 132 yards and a TD on 32 carries. He isn’t much of a threat receiving but expect Davis to have a more expanded role in the offense this season, especially on short yardage and goal line situations (lots of vulture potential here).  He should also get plenty of carries in lopsided games.
Grade: A

Wide Receivers

A lot of people will probably be nervous about taking any receiver off of this roster not named Jeremy Maclin, and I don’t blame them.  There are no sure things in this group and none of them caught a TD pass last season. Maclin has vertical ability and will make explosive plays throughout the year. I think it’s safe to say he should be good for at least seven TDs this season. Maclin will probably be a mid round selection in this year’s fantasy drafts.  Another former Eagle receiver in Jason Avant will be in the mix as well but for fantasy purposes I see him as a potential early season free agent pickup.

My sleeper at the wide receiver position for the Chiefs is De’Anthony Thomas.  He’s going to spend more time at receiver this season after being a RB/WR last season.  When healthy, the only player with more big play ability on this roster is Jamaal Charles.  Thomas will also give you a lot of points if your league gives credit from return yardage as he’s the Chiefs kick returner.  Thomas will most like score multiple special teams touchdowns this season.  He’s the most explosive returner the Chiefs have had since the days of Dante Hall.
Grade: C

Tight End

Travis Kelce is poised to make a big impact on the Chiefs offense this season.  He amassed 862 yards and five touchdowns last season. While Kelce’s yardage will most likely stay within the 900 yard range, his touchdown total should raise from last season. Health has been a concern with Kelce so that’s something to look out for. His four fumbles (three lost) could also be a concern.  Despite these things Kelce will be a top 10 TE selection in fantasy drafts this season.
Grade: B+

Summary

Overall the Kansas City Chiefs have the making to be a top 10 offense this season.  There is average to above average talent across the board on the offense.  There were big changes on the offensive line this offseason so it may take a few weeks for this offense to get into full gear so don’t get nervous if Charles, Maclin, and Kelce start the year slow stat-wise.  Andy Reid will put these players in the best position to win and I expect Alex Smith to stretch that arm out and have the ball more than 15 yards in the air more than we’ve seen in recent years.  Outside of Jamaal Charles this is definitely a wait and see offensive team.
Overall Grade: B

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