QB Brock Osweiler | Houston Texans | 5th Year
2015 Stats: 1,967 passing yards, 10 TD, 6 INT, 61 rushing yards, 1 TD
After seeing the first meaningful action of his career last year with the Denver Broncos, Osweiler cashed in with a four-year, $72 million contract with the Houston Texans this offseason. He’ll be the unquestioned starter in Houston, with no future Hall of Famer over his shoulder, and increased expectations means Osweiler will be on the radar of fantasy owners from the start this year.
Osweiler had a touchdown pass in seven of the eight games he appeared in last year (seven starts), but let’s take a closer look at the six games he started and finished from Week 11-Week 16. Over that span, Osweiler completed 62 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and three interceptions while averaging 264.8 passing yards per game. His best stretch game from Week 14-Week 16, as Osweiler threw for at least 296 yards in all three games (over 300 once) with four passing touchdowns (three in Week 15) and one rushing touchdown at a key time for fantasy owners that added him.
In Houston, Osweiler has a talented No. 1 wide receiver at his disposal in DeAndre Hopkins (111 receptions for 1,521 yards and 11 touchdowns last season). The Texans also added Lamar Miller as the their new No. 1 running back in free agency, and drafted two wide receivers (Will Fuller and Braxton Miller) to further bolster their new quarterback’s supporting cast.
The Texans have had a run-heavy offense, ranking No. 1 and No. 5 in the league in rushing attempts over the last two seasons, and offensive coordinator George Godsey has suggested a focus on the run will remain in 2016.
It’s easy to anoint Osweiler as a breakout candidate for 2016, due in part to his salary and more specifically looking at a promising new situation. But just because the Texans are paying him like a top-tier quarterback doesn’t mean fantasy owners should automatically think he is one, and Osweiler is nothing more than a risk/reward QB2 for me this year.
2016 Projection
3,700 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, 15 INT, 75 rushing yards, 1 TD
Breakout Percentage
20%
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