2017 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Jesse James

TE Jesse James | Pittsburgh Steelers | 3rd Year
2016 Stats: 39 receptions, 338 yards, 3 TDs

With some prominent mouths to feed in the Steelers’ passing game, it’s somewhat noteworthy that tight end Jesse James finished fourth on the team in targets (60) during the 2016 regular season. Of course wide receiver Antonio Brown (154) and running back Le’Veon Bell (94) were the target hogs, so James did not put up big numbers (39 catches for 338 yards and three touchdowns).

But James did emerge a bit during last year’s playoffs, with 10 receptions (on 13 targets) for 131 yards in Pittsburgh’s two games. The Steelers acknowledged a mistake from last offseason a few days ago, releasing tight end Ladarius Green with a failed physical designation. So the door is now open for James to be the team’s clear No. 1 tight end, but what does that mean for his fantasy prospects this year?

Penn Live.com was quick to note that both James and Xavier Grimble played more snaps when Green was not in the lineup last season. James averaged 9.5 more snaps per game when Green was out, while Grimble’s snap count more than doubled when Green was absent(14.2 per game, from 6.3 per game when Green played). David Johnson has been retained as a blocking tight end, as he had just seven catches for 80 yards in 2016.

James was essentially the top tight end for Pittsburgh last season, with 13 starts and the most production the team got at the position. The return of Martavis Bryant and the drafting of JuJu Smith-Schuster adds more competition for targets, but those additions stand to impact the Steelers’ wide receiver pecking order more than any particular impact on James’ target total.

Though he’s not at the same level as a blocker, as reflected by Pro Football Focus, James reminds me of former Steelers’ tight end Heath Miller. Over 11 seasons (2005-2015) Miller finished as a TE1 (12-team leagues) five times, with two more seasons just outside that territory. His touchdown total declined toward the end of his career, but Miller had at least 58 catches in each of his final four seasons with a catch rate that never dropped below 70 percent over that span.

Even for those of us who like to wait on the tight end position, James is probably not draftable in 12-team leagues. He will be worth monitoring as a waiver wire addition though, with appeal as a possible bye week fill-in or streaming option. A full-on breakout into weekly fantasy starter territory is highly unlikely this year.

2017 Projection
50 receptions, 445 yards, 6 TDs

Breakout Percentage: 15%

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