2016 Fantasy Recap
Last year the Colts finished a disappointing 8-8. Despite the not so good record the Colts still had a top five fantasy quarterback in Andrew Luck and a top ten fantasy receiver in T.Y. Hilton, and at running back Frank Gore went over 1,000 yards. What hurts the Colts last season was injuries, poor defense, and an o line that could not create room for runners or protect their quarterback. Donte Moncrief missed seven games, Dwayne Allen was banged up most of the year and missed a couple of games, and even Andrew Luck missed a game and played many more at less than 100%. As a result four of their eight losses were five or less than points. Hoping for a better year they focused on their defense and offensive line this past off season.
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Key Additions and Losses
- Kamar Aiken
- Malik Hooker (Draft)
- Marlon Mack (Draft)
Quarterback Fantasy Outlook
Last year Andrew Luck played just about every game banged up and even missed a game. Despite all of that he still threw for over 4,200 yards and over 30 touchdowns and finished in the top five in quarterback standings. If he can get healthy before week one, which I think he will, he could be in line for a fantastic season. A season similar to his 2014 season where he threw for over 4,700 yards and 40 touchdowns is within reach. I know there are concerns about the offensive line and defense, and they did address both in the off season. One of the biggest reasons I am high on Luck is his schedule this season. Based on last year’s record and the Colts have the easiest schedule. Luck can easily finish in the top three in 2017. His current ADP has him going late in the fourth round, which I think is a little early to take any quarterback. Someone will take him there and they will not be disappointed in his performance, but they will miss out on more valuable pieces.
Running Back Fantasy Outlook
Entering his 22nd season Frank Gore remains the starting running back for the Colts. Obviously, I am kidding about the 22nd year thing its really 13th, but I am not kidding about the starting. The Colt do not have good fantasy options at running back this season, to put it bluntly. Gore barely broke 1,000 yards last year and it took 263 carries to do it. He won’t get enough carries this year to break 1,000 yards. Currently, Gore’s ADP is 85 and I personally think that is way to high for him this season. I would not be drafting until double digit rounds. The reason why is Robert Turbin. I know last year his numbers were pretty sad except touchdowns, which he had seven of. I expect he gets an increase in carries to lighten the load on Gore, but not enough to make him draftable. The Colts also used a fourth round pick to draft Marlon Mack, who currently is slated as the future running back in Indy. I suspect as the season progress Mack will see more and more playing time, but never enough to roster him. I really see this as a transition year for the Colts backfield. Gore will get the most, with Turbin helping. Then as the year progress, we will see more and more of Mack, thus making all of the running backs virtually worthless. Your best bet is some early good games by Gore, but he will fade as the season progress. The only other back worth mentioning is Josh Ferguson who could emerge as a passing down back, but like Mack, he might have to wait for Gore to step aside before he can have value in that role.
Wide Receiver Fantasy Outlook
In five years T.Y. Hilton has only missed two games, and in the last four years, he has caught 324 passes for 5,000 yards. Hilton is averaging 81 receptions for 1,250 yards per year. The only stat hurting him is his touchdown production, which is a little under six a year. This has to be to quietest top ten production there is. Currently getting drafted early second round and I am comfortable with that as I expect him to match his average at minimum. After Hilton is where things get complicated. Everyone knows Donte Moncrief is a talented wide receiver, but injuries derailed his coming out party last year. Going into the final year of his rookie deal he is finally healthy. If he stays healthy he should be able to justify the fifth round ADP he is currently trending at, which puts him squarely in the solid WR3 or flex category. After Moncrief, many people are saying the next guy to own is Kamar Aiken. While I like Aiken, I think the next best wide receiver is Phillip Dorsett. While Dorsett had a poor season last year I think it was mainly because Moncrief was in and out of the lineup. Too many time Dorsett was asked to fill in for Moncrief and that is not his skill set. This is where Aiken fits in. If Moncrief does go down it will be Aiken starting for him, not Dorsett allowing Dorsett to stay as the teams WR3. With the consistent role, I can see Dorsett pulling in around 40/700/7. Bottom line Hilton is a sure fire top ten wide receiver, Moncrief, if he stays healthy, will be a WR3 or flex play for you, Aiken will hold more value if Moncrief goes down, and Dorsett has sneaky value in standard league and spot starting in PPR leagues.
Tight End Fantasy Outlook
Many time last year whether in my waiver wire articles or sit start articles, I was a big fan of Jack Doyle when Dwayne Allen was out or not 100%. Well, now Allen is off to New England leaving Doyle the number tight end on the Colts roster no questions asked. Depending on scoring system Doyle finished as a high TE2 or maybe a low TE1. His current ADP has him going in the 10th round and the 12th tight end off the board, which is an absolute steal, considering he has great potential to be a top ten tight end this season. Even if he only sees an increase of one target per game, at his catch rate which is an amazing 79% that is 12 more receptions, for another 120 yards and one more touchdown. You add that to what he scored last year and you have a top six tight end. So if the 10th round rolls around and you waited on your tight end and Doyle is there consider yourself a winner because you just got a tight end that might return fifth round value. Many people are high on Erik Swoope, but I just don’t see him jumping over Doyle on the depth chart. He should have no problem taking the TE2 spot on the team, but if will have no value as long as Doyle is playing.
Defensive Fantasy Outlook
The Colts spent a lot of draft picks on defense this year. Some of which should see plenty of playing time this year. Will this translate into a draftable defense? No. But truth be told if you are not a top eight defense I am not interested in drafting you. I would rather just stream a defense at that point. I will say with the easiest schedule this year there could be times when you would stream the defense if they can look good early in the season. They do have games against San Fran, Buffalo, and Jacksonville twice.