2017 Fantasy Football: The “Too Early for a Top Ten, Top Ten” WR Edition

1. Antonio Brown, Steelers

Brown had a down year in 2016. He finished second in receptions with 106, fifth in receiving yards at 1,257 and tied for second with 12 TD receptions. Okay, so I was being a little facetious when I said he had a down year, but by his standards it was a down year. His 106 receptions and 1,284 receiving yards was his lowest total since 2012, back when he wasn’t even a full time starter.

Any time your down year is good for “second best” in the league, you will continue to be fantasy’s top wide receiver.

2. Mike Evans, Buccaneers

My love for Evans paid off handsomely last season. I wrote last year that I thought Evan’s 2016 would be a combination of his rookie year in which he had 12 TDs and his second year in which he had more than 1,200 yards receiving — and I damn near nailed it. He had 1,321 yards and 12 TDs last season despite being the only real receiving threat on the field.

This year he will have the speedy off-season addition DeSean Jackson lining up on the opposite side of him, which should take some pressure off of Evans. I’ve heard the pundits claim that Jackson may take away some of Evans’ targets, but I disagree. Jackson isn’t a volume receiver and won’t need to get many targets in order to be effective.

Point and case, Jackson had the fewest receptions of any 1,000 yard WR in 2016 with only 56 receptions. Kenny Britt had the second fewest with 68, a full 12 more receptions — basically two extra games worth of catches.

With Jackson running his favorite route — the go route — the safeties will be forced to respect Jackson’s speed, leaving the middle of the field wide open for Evans to dominate.

3. Julio Jones, Falcons

It is well documented that I was down on Jones going into 2016. I thought match ups with the Broncos, Seahawks, Cardinals, Chiefs and Panthers (twice) would severely limit Matt Ryan’s numbers and ultimately Jones’ ability to put up top three WR numbers.

I was wrong.

Jones was second to only T.Y. Hilton in receiving yardage despite only having 83 receptions. The only WR to have a higher yards per catch average was DeSean Jackson, but Jackson only had 56 receptions and barely cracked 1,000 yards. Jones was also the only wide receiver to average over 100 yards per game.

The only thing that scares me away from Jones, and why he is ranked No. 3 and not No. 2 is his touchdown production. Jones has been in the league since 2011 and only has one year with double digit touchdowns. Yes, that’s right. One. And even that year he barely reached double-digits. He didn’t catch his 10th touchdown until the second-to-last week of the year.

4. Odell Beckham Jr., Giants

I’m a little worried about OBJ this year with the addition of Brandon Marshall to the Giants receiving corps, but I couldn’t realistically rank him any lower than four. I do, however, think he will not have the type of season he has had over his first three years in the league.

The addition of Brandon Marshall gives QB Eli Manning a huge target in the red zone, and he will likely look his way a lot this year which could hurt OBJ’s touchdown numbers somewhat. I also think his reception total will suffer a bit with Marshall and the promising second-year WR Sterling Shepard taking some looks away from Beckham.

5. A.J. Green, Bengals

Green had a 2016 to forget. He only played in 10 games, failed to reach 1,000 yards for the first time in his career, and had a career low in touchdown receptions with only four.

With that said, he was having a great season before getting hurt in Week 11. If we exclude the Week 11 game in which he was injured early on and failed to even catch a pass, he played in nine games on the season catching 66 passes for 964 yards and the aforementioned four touchdowns. If we extrapolate those numbers over a 16-game season, he would have finished with 117 receptions 1,713 yards and seven TDs.

In other words, he would have led the league in both receptions and yards by a substantial margin and may have ended the season as the No. 1 WR in fantasy PPR leagues. Assuming he is healthy to start the season, and there has been no indication that he won’t be, then I think Green picks up right where he left off. His injury status and the fact that he always seems to be given no respect as a top-tier fantasy WR, he will likely go later in drafts then he probably should, but I, however, will not pass on him.

6. Jordy Nelson, Packers

After missing the entire 2015 season with an ACL injury, Nelson returned in 2016 and picked up right where he left off. He led the league in TD receptions with 14 to go along with 1,257 yards on 97 receptions. He played and started all 16 games last season, and there was no sign of him slowing down.

It doesn’t hurt that his QB is among the best, if not the best, in the league. The departure of Eddie Lacy to Seattle could mean the Packers will have to continue to be a very pass heavy offense, and Nelson has long been the favorite receiver for Aaron Rodgers. He could easily put up similar numbers in 2017.

7. Michael Thomas, Saints

Thomas is going to be this year’s Allen Robinson. What I mean by that is, the hype machine has already started with Thomas, and by the time we draft in August, he could end up being a first round pick. Much like Robinson last year, Thomas is the only “new” face in the Top 10 of wide receivers and I’ve seen him ranked as high as five and as low as 12.

Everyone assumes that with the departure of Brandin Cooks to the Patriots that Thomas immediately becomes a WR1 in fantasy, but as someone who was burned by Robinson last year, slow your roll a little. The “second-year slump” for wide receivers is a legit thing, and being the No. 1 WR on an NFL team means he will see the opposing teams No. 1 cornerback more often than not.

8. Dez Bryant, Cowboys

I struggled with this choice. I almost left Bryant out of the Top 10 entirely, but ultimately I think he and Dak Prescott get on the same page and Bryant goes back to being his normal dominant self — if he can stay healthy.

Bryant has dealt with injuries over his last two seasons and those injuries are starting to pile up on a WR that will be turning 29 in November of this year. I still think Bryant has one or two really good fantasy seasons in him, but I think his draft stock will be hurt by his inability to stay on the field.

9. Amari Cooper, Raiders

Cooper’s numbers from 2016 are nearly identical to his numbers as a rookie in 2015. He had 83 receptions 1,153 yards and five touchdowns last season, and while those are good numbers, anyone who drafted him last year had hoped for more.

He didn’t take that big step forward that everyone had hoped he would, but in his defense, some of it wasn’t his fault. First off, the Raiders have a dominant offensive line — and would probably be considered the best if not for the media hype the Cowboys’ O-line gets — and with that dominant line, they became a “run first” team in 2016, especially at home where they handed the ball off 30 times a game on average.

Secondly, Michael Crabtree’s emergence as a solid No. 2 WR also hurt Coopers’ stock. In fact, it was Crabtree, not Cooper, that led the team in receptions and receiving touchdowns.

With all that said, traditionally year three has always been the “breakout” year for wide receivers. We have been spoiled over the last five-plus years with rookies and second-year receivers putting up monster numbers, but I think Cooper takes that third-year leap and propels himself into the Julio Jones and Odell Beckham, Jr. conversation.

10. T.Y. Hilton, Colts

To be honest, when I set out to write this column, I had no intention of putting Hilton on this list. I had completely overlooked him in my initial ranking and it wasn’t until I started to do some hard research that I realized he led the league in receiving yards last season.

Hilton has always been a boom or bust fantasy WR. Point and case, he had six games in 2016 with 100 or more receiving yards but had five games with fewer than 45 yards. Personally, it’s not likely that I’ll own Hilton in any of my leagues because I think he will be over-drafted. He pads his overall season stats with huge 170-plus yardage games — something he did twice in 2016 — but will put up too many duds for what will likely be a lot of owners WR1 in fantasy.

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