2018 Fantasy Football Bounceback Candidate: Eli Manning
QB Eli Manning, New York Giants
2017 Stats: 3,468 passing yds, 19 TD, 13 INT; 1 rush TD
Eli Manning has had an up-and-down-career, but 2017 was the biggest of the downs. He set full season career-lows in touchdowns (19) and yards per attempt (6.1) with a nine-year low in passing yards (3,468). To top it off, former Giants head coach Ben McAdoo ended Manning’s consecutive start streak (210) in Week 13 against the Oakland Raiders, in favor of Geno Smith, only to go back to the two-time Super Bowl MVP the following week.
Pat Shurmur is the new Giants’ head coach, after being offensive coordinator for the Minnesota Vikings. Manning is clearly in decline, at 37 years old. But he played behind a bad offensive line with a non-functioning running game (26th in the league) last year, and without Odell Beckham (12 missed games), Brandon Marshall (11 missed games) and Sterling Shepard (five missed games) for big chunks of the season. Shurmur managed to coax what will probably be a career season out of Case Keenum last year.
Beckham and Shepard are back healthy, and tight end Evan Engram became an exception among rookie tight ends last year with a finish as TE5 in ESPN leagues (64 catches for 722 yards and six touchdowns). Nate Solder was signed to take over at left tackle, and Will Hernandez will step right in at left guard after being drafted 34th overall.
But the headline move came with the second overall pick in April’s draft. Rather than take Manning’s successor, the Giants took Penn State Saquon Barkley to add a dynamic talent to the mix.
Let’s lay out a scenario, but you’ll probably see where it’s going.
Team A has the following players based on average draft position right now (via Fantasy Football Calculator, 12-team standard scoring): RB5, WR3 and TE6. So where is that team’s quarterback in ADP? QB22.
If you haven’t figured it out the team is the Giants, RB5 is Barkley, WR3 is Beckham and TE6 is Engram. And QB22 is Manning. Shift to full-point PPR and Barkley is still RB5, Beckham is still WR3, Shepard edges into more viable draftability at WR47 and Engram is still TE6.
Three players who are in line to be top-10 options at their position would necessarily drag the quarterback up to nearly that level with them. Yet Manning is being drafted as a back-end QB2. A top-10 fantasy finish isn’t necessarily in the cards, but Manning doesn’t miss games and there’s value along with a good bit of upside baked into his draft position.
Eli Manning 2018 Projection: 3,875 pass yds, 27 TD, 15 INT, 1 rush TD
Bounceback Percentage: 80%
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