WR T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts
2017 Stats: 57 rec., 966 yards, 4 TD
Last year was a roller coaster for T.Y. Hilton, with big games (Week 3, Week 5, Week 9, Week 16) followed by duds (Week 4, Week 6-8, Week 10, Week 12, Week 17). Andrew Luck being out all season was the biggest factor in that inconsistency, along with Jacoby Brissett having a short window to learn the offense and build rapport after being acquired late in the preseason.
All was not totally lost for Hilton in 2017 though, as he averaged 16.9 yards per catch (fourth in the league) while accounting for a 23.1 percent target share. He was also top-10 in yards per target (8.9).
In the last two seasons Luck played at least 15 games (2014 and 2016), Hilton was a top-10 fantasy wide receiver and in 2016 he finished as WR5 in ESPN leagues.
By all accounts Luck is ready to go now, after slow progress to even throwing a normal size football was cause for concern. Even if his shoulder never gets all the way back to where it was, Luck’s return is good news for Hilton and entire Colts’ offense.
Among wide receivers with at least 90% snap share last year (h/t to Jen Ryan of FootballDiehards.com), Hilton was first in points per snap (0.30).
Hilton’s ADP (via Fantasy Football Calculator.com) is on the rise, to WR10 in both standard (pick 3.04) and PPR (pick 3.01) scoring (12-team leagues). That puts him at a fine line between being under or overvalued right now, but a nice bounce-back season is in order.
T.Y. Hilton 2018 Projection: 82 receptions for 1,256 yards, 7 TD
Bounceback Percentage: 95%
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