2018 Fantasy Football Bust Candidate: Tyreek Hill
WR Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs
2017 Stats: 75 rec., 1,183 yards, 7 TD; 59 rush yds
After being more of an all-purpose threat/gadget player as a rookie in 2016, Hill became a legit No. 1 wide receiver last year. He finished as a top-10 fantasy wide receiver (WR8 in ESPN leagues; PPR scoring), spurred in part by Alex Smith suddenly becoming a prolific deep ball thrower. The Chiefs traded Smith away, but Patrick Mahomes comes with a strong arm and the promise of a seamless transition in terms of letting it fly down the field.
The Chiefs did not lose much target share from last year. But a big chunk of what they did lose was from No. 2 wide receiver Albert Wilson, who had 62 targets in 2017 and left for the Miami Dolphins in free agency. In Wilson’s place is Sammy Watkins, who the Chiefs gave a nice contract to as at least a hypothetical upgrade opposite Hill.
Hill was outside the top-20 among wide receivers with 105 targets last year. But he led the league in yards per target (11.3) and 40-plus yard catches (nine), while finishing top-10 in the league in yards per catch (15.8).
After getting 15 red zone targets in 2016, Hill had just four red zone targets last year. With tight end Travis Kelce and Watkins (eight touchdowns for the Rams last year) around, and running back Kareem Hunt in line for a good dose of red zone work, Hill is down the pecking order in the scoring area of the field.
Hill’s shortest touchdown last season was from 30 yards out, and five of his seven receiving scores were from 50-plus yards out. Those five catches accounted for 28.6 percent of his yards for the season. Add the other two touchdowns, and it goes up to 34.5 percent of his yards on 9.3 percent of his catches.
Hill is being drafted like a WR1 in 12-team standard scoring leagues (WR12, pick 3.09; Fantasy Football Calculator), and just outside of that in full-point PPR (WR15, pick 3.11). But the boom-or-bust nature of the big plays that boosted him last year, and an almost certain erosion of targets as Watkins commands more than Wilson did, gives Hill some serious downside to go with the upside he showed last year.
Tyreek Hill 2018 Projection: 62 rec., 950 yards, 5 TD
Bust Percentage: 66%
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