WR Randall Cobb | Green Bay Packers | 8th Year
2017 Stats: 66 rec., 653 yards, 4 TD
After a real breakout season in 2014, with 91 receptions for 1,287 yards and 12 touchdowns, Green Bay Packers wide receiver got a lucrative four-year contract extension. But he’s been on a downward trend since, and while he has at least 60 catches in each of the last three seasons he has totaled just 14 touchdowns and set a career-low by averaging 9.9 yards per catch last year.
The Packers faced a decision this offseason about what wide receiver to offer a pay cut to or cut. They chose Jordy Nelson over Cobb, and after what was reported to be a low-ball financial adjustment Nelson was cut. Age was a factor there, as Cobb will turn 28 just before the season starts and Nelson just turned 33. But Cobb is still heading into the final year of his contract, with something to prove.
This side of Nelson, no Packers’ receiver was effected by Aaron Rodgers essentially missing 10 games last year as much as Cobb was.
In the five games Cobb played and completed with Rodgers, he had 30 catches for 302 yards and two touchdowns (six catches and 60.4 yards per game). In his other 10 games, all or almost all without Rodgers, Cobb had 36 catches for 351 yards and two touchdowns (3.6 catches and 35.1 yards per game). The essential 50 percent drop-off in per-game production with and without Rodgers under center extended to Cobb’s target volume, with 45 targets (nine per game) in his complete games with Rodgers and 47 targets (4.7 per game) in the other 10 mostly with Brett Hundley.
Nelson is leaving behind an 88 target void from last year, with tight end Jimmy Graham coming aboard in free agency to fill some of that gap. But more pass attempts with Rodgers hopefully healthy for all 16 games is a given, and Cobb is no worse than No. 3 on the pecking order for targets.
In current Fantasy Football Calculator 12-team mock drafts, standard (WR40, pick 9.06) and PPR (WR39, pick 8.12) scoring has not made a real difference in Cobb’s ADP as a solid WR4 in both formats. But there’s PPR upside here, and if his scoring area involvement trends back up toward 2014 and 2015 levels (48 combined red zone targets, 22 inside the 10-yard line, 11 inside the 5-yard line) a touchdown boost could come too.
Randall Cobb 2018 Projection: 75 rec., 775 yards, 6 TD
Rebound Percentage: 55%
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