The Fanatics Sit/Start Advice for Week 1
WELCOME BACK FOOTBALL! The real games are about to start and that means it is time for my weekly sit/start article to help you prepare your lineups for week one of the NFL season. The week is always one of the hardest weeks to project. We all watched preseason, but those games don’t really offer a lot of insight to what a team really plans on doing in regular season action, but if you look closely sometimes you can get a glimpse of what the plan might be. So enough stalling lets get right to it. Remember if you have any other sit start questions you can hit me up in my Facebook group Dynasty League Problems or on twitter @MikeKelleyDLP Good luck this week.
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Quarterback
The Fanatics Starts of the Week
Andy Dalton (CIN) @ IND
I am loving Andy Dalton this year. I know last year was a down year, but in fairness, to Dalton, the whole team was a mess. It amazes me how quickly people forget, but in 2015 going into week 14 Dalton was a top-five quarterback. He was on pace for over 4,300 yards, 34 touchdowns, and only 9 interceptions. Think back to the weapons he had that year. A.J. Green, Marvin Jones, Mohammed Sanu, Tyler Eifert, Giovani Bernard, and Jeremy Hill. With all those weapons Dalton was having a great year. Okay back to 2018. He still has Green and Bernard, and Eifert is looking healthier than he has been in a while. Second-year running Joe Mixon and second-year receiver John Ross looked prime for very solid seasons and even third-year receiver Tyler Boyd looks ready to contribute this year. Plus a new offense that is looking to push the ball and make plays has Dalton looking very impressive to me. Even his preseason numbers were impressive. He completed 22 of 31 attempts for 324 yards with four touchdowns and one interception. Plus he gets the Colts week one, what is not to like about his prospects for production this week? Start him if you have him, get if you need to and expect over 300 yards passing with a couple of touchdowns.
Other Starts
- Matthew Stafford (DET) @ NYJ
- Cam Newton (CAR) vs DAL
The Fanatics Sits of the Week
Philip Rivers (LAC) vs KC
Philip Rivers is one of my favorite quarterbacks to draft. Mostly because you can get him in the later rounds and he usually produces top ten quarterback numbers. But this week I am staying away from him if I can. Last year in typical scoring leagues Rivers only had two games where he produced less than ten points. Week three against the Chiefs and week 15 against the Chiefs. Even if you don’t know the schedule this week I am pretty sure you can figure out who the Chargers are playing for me to put Rivers on the sit of the week list. That is correct the Chiefs. In the two games against the Chiefs, last year Rivers completed 40 out of 76 pass attempts, for a total of 464 yards and one touchdown. The number that really worries me though is the six interceptions he threw in those two games. To help put that into perspective in the other 14 games Rivers only threw four more interceptions. Clearly, the Chiefs had his number last year. Now I know that was last year and this is a new year, but when you have to make decisions for week one we use what data we can and for that reseason alone I am avoiding this week if I can. There are plenty of better options that can get you by week one of the season.
Other Sits
- Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) @ MIN
- Alex Smith (WAS) @ ARZ
Running Back
The Fanatics Starts of the Week
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Jordan Howard (CHI) @ GB
For having a regression year from 2016 Jordan Howard still managed 1,122 yards, with a 4.1 average, and nine touchdowns. The rushing average was not good, but it certainly was not bad either. Word out of camp he worked on his hands all offseason, and I know they have Tarik Cohen, but I think Cohen might actually see some time as a slot receiver since the Bears are a little thin at wide receiver. So even if Howard replicates his rushing numbers, which is very possible, throwing in an additional 15 receptions for 100 yards would be enough to move him into the top ten among running backs. So starting the season against the Packers who have been pretty generous to running backs in recent years just may be the start Howard needs to get a jump on the season. I think we can expect 80 plus yards with two or three receptions for an additional 20 yards and at least one trip to pay dirt.
Other Starts
- Alex Collins (BAL) vs BUF
- Derrick Henry (TEN) @ MIA
The Fanatics Sits of the Week
Lamar Miller (HOU) @ NE
Last year against the Patriots Lamar Miller had 14 carries for 56 yards with no touchdowns and added one reception for seven yards. Needless to say, it was not a good game for him. The game was also pretty high scoring as both teams were passing often, which of course left Miller out of the equation. I am not expecting much of a difference this year either. This game has all the expectations to be high scoring, especially if the Patriots strike first. Also, most weeks for Miller to have any value requires him to find the end zone and I am not sure he does this week. Miller owners need to hope a deep pass comes down inside the five and Miller gets to punch it in. If he does not get that touchdown I think we are looking at less than 60 yards from him on the day.
Other Sits
- LeSean McCoy (BUF) @ BAL
- Dalvin Cook (MIN) vs SF
Wide Receiver
The Fanatics Starts of the Week
Emmanuel Sanders (DEN) vs SEA
Just like Diggs, it seems like this preseason Emmanuel Sanders is the favorite target of his new quarterback. With seven receptions for 88 yards and even a carry for 27 yards and a touchdown, Sanders seems to be finally healthy and in very good shape. Plus he looked more in sync with Case Keenum than Demaryius Thomas did. The Seahawks appear to be a shell of their former selves, especially on defense, so this could a great game for the Broncos really stretch their legs and see what they can do. I am thinking he can hit the six receptions mark and 90 plus yards. Certainly plenty of value for a guy that you drafted as a sometimes flex play for you.
Other Starts
- Allen Robinson (CHI) vs @ GB
- Tyler Lockett (SEA) @ DEN
The Fanatics Sits of the Week
Doug Baldwin (SEA) @ DEN
I know Doug Baldwin and Russell Wilson have great chemistry, but with virtually no preseason work and a pretty tough matchup with the Broncos, I am not thrilled if I have to start Baldwin this week. Baldwin has already admitted that he will be dealing with this knee issue all season long. It is just not a good series of event for Baldwin. I would rather pass on Baldwin this week and give him some time to prove he can play through this knee issue than risk of four receptions for 35 yards game, which is what I am thinking we are looking at this week.
Other Sits
- Amari Cooper (OAK) vs LA
- Josh Gordon (CLE) vs PIT
Tight End
The Fanatics Starts of the Week
Benjamin Watson (NO) vs TB
Despite the ripe old age of 53 years old, I know its really 37, but it feels like he has been playing forever. I really like Watson this year. He does not look he is slowing down anytime soon and I think Drew Brees is really excited to have a legit tight end back at his disposal. The last time Watson was Brees tight end he produced 74 receptions for 825 yards and six touchdowns, and there is no reason why Watson cannot challenge those numbers again this year. Look for Watson to put up four or five receptions for 55 yards and a slight chance for a touchdown.
Other Starts
- Nick Vannett (SEA) @ DEN
- Trey Burton (CHI) @ GB
The Fanatics Sits of the Week
Evan Engram (NYG) vs JAX
Engram is battling a concussion and facing the Jacksonville Jaguars this week. It is a tough matchup, he is coming off a concussion, Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham Jr and both expected to play and Sterling Shepard has looked good this preseason. Lump all that together and I think we are seeing a limited amount of playing time for Engram and when he does play there will be too many options to rely on him this week. To expect a lot out of Engram this week would be risky. If you are lucky he pulls in four receptions for 40 yards, and I doubt he finds pay dirt against that stout Jags defense.
Other Sits
- Kyle Rudolph (MIN) vs SF
- Austin Hooper (ATL) @ PHI
Defense
The Fanatics Starts of the Week
Cincinnati Bengals @ IND
I really the Bengals front seven and I think the can create a lot of pressure on the quarterback. Over the years getting to Andrew Luck has never been really that hard.
Other Starts
- New Orleans Saints vs TB
- Tennessee Titans @ MIA
The Fanatics Sits of the Week
Houston Texans @ NE
This game will be a shootout. Don’t bother with either defense this week.
Other Sits
- New England Patriots vs HOU
- Oakland Raiders vs LAR
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