Buy Low
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Quarterback
Jameis Winston – Winston took over for Ryan Fitzpatrick in week four and will start for the Buccaneers after their week five bye. Considering what Fitzpatrick was able to accomplish in the first three weeks of the season, there is reason to be excited about Winston. With a poor defense, an ineffective run game, and a bevy of talented receivers, Winston should be effective for fantasy. I expect the Buccaneers to be involved in some shootouts this season, and Winston should be available on plenty of waiver wires and may be easy enough to acquire in 2QB leagues as well.
Running Back
Leonard Fournette – It’s clear what the Jaguars want to do with Fournette on the field as he toted seven carries on the Jaguars first drive before injuring his hamstring again later in the game. Fournette owners will likely grow impatient, especially if he missed the week five contest. I’m certainly concerned when a running back has repeated soft tissue injuries, but if my team is in a good position now, acquiring Fournette for a postseason push could be a league-winning move.
Wide Receiver
Doug Baldwin – Baldwin returned in week four to post five catches for 41 yards. Considering it was his first game back, 9.1 PPR points shouldn’t be disappointing, but won’t create confidence for Baldwin owners, opening the buying window. Once ranked inside of my top ten wide receivers this season, I loved the opportunity Baldwin would see with Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson with new teams. The Seahawks are in desperate need of some consistency in their passing offense and Baldwin can provide that. In PPR especially, I’m buying Baldwin as a WR2 for the rest of the season.
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski – This may be too obvious, and it also may be too difficult to acquire Gronkowski, but I’m at least starting a conversation with the Gronk owner in every league I’m in. The Patriots offense sputtered in the first three weeks, and then played in a blow out in week four where Gronk wasn’t needed. I prefer Travis Kelce to Gronk at this point, and Zach Ertz is in the same tier, but after those three, there is a big drop off. With how shallow tight end has become, having a clear advantage at the position each week can create some mismatches against your weekly opponents and Gronk is as cheap as he’s been all season.
Sell High
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Quarterback
Mitchell Trubisky – Trubisky topped all quarterbacks in fantasy scoring in week four. He scored 43.5 points on only 26 pass attempts and three carries. Trubisky’s career touchdown rate is 3.3%. He had a touchdown rate of 23.1% in week four. After some projected a breakout season for Trubisky, there were questions about his ability in the first three weeks. Even after an efficient week four, I have questions whether Trubisky can sustain any type of meaningful production for fantasy. At best, Trubisky is a low-end QB2 so I’m selling for anything more than that.
Wide Receiver
Calvin Ridley – Ridley is one of the most obvious sell-high candidates this season. He’s scored more touchdowns in the last two games than Julio Jones has over his last 25 games. Matt Ryan is on pace for 5,264 passing yards and 40 passing touchdowns, both would be career highs. Even with Ryan’s volume, Ridley’s expected touchdown production given his opportunity is 1.5 touchdowns, 4.5 lower than his actual total this year (according to Mike Clay’s OTD stats on ESPN). Sell Ridley as a young, emerging talent and take any established WR2 that comes your way.
Tight End
Eric Ebron – Ebron has solid PPR performances in each of his first four games, hauling in three touchdowns during that stretch. He’s been heavily targeted, especially with Jack Doyle out. Tight end is shallow this season, especially with multiple injuries at the position, so while Ebron is an obvious sell overall, it may not make sense for your team. Andrew Luck started with an average yards per attempt of 5.33 through the first three weeks, turning him into “Captain Checkdown.” In week four, his average yards per attempt ballooned to 7.48. It looks like Luck is becoming more comfortable throwing downfield which could allow him to skip the tight end check down more frequently. Even while receiving 21 targets over the past two weeks, Ebron caught just 10 passes and recorded only 77 yards. He remains a touchdown or bust option each week and that’s before Jack Doyle comes back, even if Doyle’s return is a few weeks away.
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