TE Jordan Reed (Washington Redskins) | 7th Year
2018 Stats: 54 receptions for 558 yards, 2 TD
Injuries are a prominent part of the equation for Jordan Reed, and he didn’t disappoint by missing the final three games last season due to a lingering toe injury. As the Redskins went through quarterbacks after Alex Smith‘s career-threatening broken leg, from Colt McCoy to Mark Sanchez to Josh Johnson, Reed posted the lowest catch rate of his career by far (64.3 percent).
However, Reed did capture a nice target share in 2018. According to ESPN’s Mike Clay, he had a 23 percent target share over the 12 full games he played last year (6.9 per game). That lines up well with his best season in 2015, when he had 20.5 percent target share, and his target share over five fully healthy games in 2017 (21 percent).
The Redskins traded for Case Keenum and drafted Dwayne Haskins, so their quarterback situation is only marginally better right now than it was at the end of 2018. More broadly, Washington’s offense is a solid bet to be the lowest-scoring in the league this year.
Reed’s 84 targets led the team last year, and Washington has 120 vacated wide receiver targets from last year, mostly in the departures of Jamison Crowder (49) and Maurice Harris (47). If Reed can be reasonably healthy, with few other good options, a natural uptick is coming.
Reed accounted for a good share of the Redskins’ red zone targets last year (seven; 16.7 percent ). But he only has 11 red zone targets over the last two seasons, with the caveat he has played in 19 of a possible 32 games, after totaling 47 red zone targets from 2014-2016 (37 total games).
Reed can be had essentially for free in drafts right now. Via Fantasy Football Calculator, he’s coming in at TE17 (164th overall, pick 13.11) in standard scoring and TE19 (167th overall, pick 13.11) in full-point PPR. His Fantasy Pros’ ADP is in the same range, at TE16 (pick 151) in standard scoring and TE19 (pick 160) in full PPR. A 13th or 14th round pick could very well yield a top-10 tight end this year, for those that like to wait to draft the position.
2019 Projection: 68 receptions for 695 yards, 6 TD
Bounceback Confidence Level: 81%
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