2019 Fantasy Football Week 1 Buy Low/Sell High (#FantasyFootball)

Buy Low

Quarterback

Jameis Winston – My quarterback choice was going to be Kyler Murray until he racked up enough points in the fourth quarter and overtime to put him at QB12 for the week.

Instead, I’ll choose Jameis Winston. He looked bad, but I don’t believe the Buccaneers will be able to run the ball this season. They lack a quality running game, but have a plethora of top-notch receivers. I believe in Bruce Arians’ offense, and I have a hard time believing Winston will continue to struggle with the ability to throw to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and O.J. Howard. Winston hasn’t shown the ability to limit interceptions, but he doesn’t need to be a good NFL quarterback to be a good fantasy quarterback. Winston is my top buy-low quarterback after week one.

Also buy – Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers

Running Back

Instead of highlighting one running back this week, I’ll list a few and give a brief reason why I’m buying.

Sony Michel – He split work with James White and Rex Burkhead, but he still saw 15 carries. The Steelers set up well for White with their blitz-heavy scheme and while Burkhead stole more carries than I expected, I still see Michel as a flex play in PPR or RB2 in standard leagues. There will be games, especially next week against the Dolphins, where the matchup and the game script will set up perfectly for Michel.

Miles Sanders – The Eagles found themselves down 17 points before they started to produce on offense. This put them in a pass-heavy game-script and limited Sanders’ workload. Alshon Jeffery also ended up with a 2 yard rushing touchdown. Sanders finished with 48% percent of the snaps which should increase with positive game scripts, giving him plenty of upside in this Eagles offense.

Aaron Jones – The Packers offense looked absolutely terrible on Thursday night and the play-calling was frequently sub-optimal. I don’t see Jones as an RB1 but he’s an RB2/flex with significant upside. Considering the Packers really didn’t play together during pre-season, there is reason to believe the offense can get it together as the season progresses, and there will be game scripts in Jones’ favor yet this year.

Also Buy – handcuffs – Ty Montgomery, Chase Edmonds, Jaylen Samuels, Ryquell Armstead, Tony Pollard, Alexander Mattison – This is the point of the season where people become impatient with zeros on their bench even if the utility of the handcuff is still there. Buying handcuffs (even if you don’t own the starter) can be a way to build bench depth for later in the season as players get worn down. This is only a strategy for deeper bench leagues, but is a league-winning way to build rosters.

Wide Receiver/Tight End

Buccaneers receivers  – Mike Evans/O.J. Howard – If I’m buying Winston, I’m clearly buying the talented receivers in the offense as well. I would also include Chris Godwin in this, but his late touchdown makes it more difficult to buy.

Sell High

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Running Back

Marlon Mack in PPR – Mack finished the week as the RB6 in PPR and the RB4 in standard. I’m more likely to believe in his production in standard leagues, but will explore selling options in PPR leagues. Mack had zero targets in week 1, making him a perfect sell candidate in PPR. In a game where the Colts were trailing, he busted off a 63-yard touchdown run that inflated his stats. Without involvement in the passing game, Mack needs multiple touchdowns or a big play to reach this level of production. I’d prefer to bet on pass-catchers and will look to sell Mack this week.

Derrick Henry in PPR – I was not high on Henry this off-season for many of the same reasons as Mack. I don’t expect the Titans to win a ton of games, and Henry doesn’t catch many passes, so he isn’t game-script proof. In week 1, Henry saw just two targets, but had a 75 yard TD catch, inflating his stats. Game script was perfect for Henry for most of the game, as the Titans destroyed the Browns. If someone is buying Henry after this performance, I’ll gladly sell for a pass-catching RB2.

Wide Receiver

DeSean Jackson – As we mentioned in the buy-low section, the game script for the Eagles set up perfectly for Carson Wentz and the receivers. Jackson went crazy, finishing as the WR3 in PPR leagues. It’s typical for Jackson to have a few spike weeks throughout each season, but it’s usually difficult to predict. The Eagles traditionally spread the ball around and this year is no exception. Eight different Eagles pass-catchers had multiple targets this past week. This will likely be Jackson’s best game of the year, so I’ll sell for a more volume-based WR3.

Also sell – John Ross III, every Baltimore pass-catcher, Chris Conley, DJ Chark

Tight End

Delanie Walker – Walker is likely a top 10 TE this season, but I have a hard time buying this type of production. He saw only 6 targets and scored twice. I don’t believe the Titans are a good offense, and the 43 point performance in week one will probably be their highest total of the year.  Don’t sell Walker for nothing as he’s still one of the better fantasy tight ends, but if he’s your second tight end (possible, considering where he was drafted), and you can get a solid return for the two-touchdown performance, consider moving him before week two.

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