Buy Low
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Quarterback
This week, I’m looking to buy injured quarterbacks such as Matt Ryan and Patrick Mahomes. This strategy will only work if you’re a playoff contender.
When owners have injured players, it’s obvious they need to replace them. During the next few weeks, replacing these players becomes increasingly difficult as bench depth becomes scarce and waivers become bare as bye weeks hit hard. When an owner has to replace an injured Mahomes with a bad quarterback from the waiver wire, it is a great chance to buy low on the injured player. The reason you need to be a contender is you’re likely going to send your current quarterback to receive Ryan or Mahomes. Then you’ll be the person forced to pick up the waiver wire quarterback. If you’re 5-2 or 6-1, this is easy to do even if you lose a week or two until your newly-acquired quarterback returns from injury. If you are 3-4 or 2-5, this is not a trade you should be making, as it will make your team worse for the next couple weeks, effectively eliminating you from playoff contention.
Examples of deals I would offer in this scenario:
Aaron Rodgers + WR3 for Patrick Mahomes
Aaron Rodgers for Matt Ryan
Matthew Stafford + WR3 for Matt Ryan
Matthew Stafford + RB2/3 for Patrick Mahomes
If you have your own trade question about this strategy, ask me on Twitter@fantasybeast15
Running Back
Chris Carson – This may be a difficult buy low based on the last four weeks, but if an owner is simply reacting to last week, Carson may be available. After three straight weeks recording 26+ touches and 120+ total yards, Carson still saw the touches (24), but ended the day with only 74 total yards. In week 7, Carson saw a season-high in snap share with 89% (via Football Outsiders). There is no longer a concern of Rashad Penny or C.J. Prosise stealing meaningful touches. Carson will continue to project for a high touch share each week so if the Carson owner is frustrated by the week 7 performance, now is the time to buy.
Wide Receiver
Courtland Sutton – Lost in Joe Flacco’s incompetence from last Thursday night was yet another solid performance from Sutton. I believe the reason Sutton isn’t taken seriously as a top 24 receiver is due to his quarterback play, but Sutton is a star in the making. He has between 7-9 targets each game this season, with double-digit PPR points in 6/7 games. With the Broncos trading Emmanuel Sanders, it’s likely Sutton will see more work in the near future.
Quick note: Tyler Boyd finished last week with 5 for 55 and a fumble, but he saw 14 targets!
Quick note #2: Keenan Allen finished last week with 4 for 61. He saw 11 targets and 209 air yards (39 more than Allen Robinson who was second).
Tight End
Mark Andrews – Like Sutton, Andrews has seen between 7-9 targets in every game this season. He’s 3rd in the NFL among tight ends in air yards behind only Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz (who are the other two TEs you should try to buy). In week seven, Andrews had eight targets, 93 air yards, but finished with only two catches for 39 yards. He’s also gone three straight weeks without scoring. The buying window is open for Andrews, and I’ll be looking to acquire him, Kelce, and Ertz this week.
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Sell High
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Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers – Rodgers finished his week 7 matchup against the Raiders with 43.8 fantasy points. He threw for 429 yards and scored six touchdowns on 31 pass attempts. Outside of the game against the Eagles this season (who are easy to pass on, but difficult to run on), Rodgers has been held under 300 passing yards in each game this year, averaging just 233.6 passing yards per game and failing to top two passing touchdowns. This will be the best game Rodgers has all season, and I’m comfortable selling him.
Running Back
Sony Michel – Michel scored three touchdowns on Monday night, putting up 22.4 PPR points. He’s now had three straight games with double-digit PPR points and is averaging 19 PPR points per game over that stretch. My issue with Michel is he’s so touchdown dependent that his “floor” games are week-killers for your team. Without the touchdowns on Monday, Michel scored just 4.4 PPR points and recorded just 34 total yards on 20 touches. He averaged just 1.7 yards per touch. As for the three touchdowns, James White actually scored a rushing touchdown that was called back due to a questionable illegal block in the back penalty, then Michel scored a few plays later. In the second half, White dove for the pylon and was ruled out at the one yard line. Michel scored on that drive as well. If White had taken one or both of those touchdowns, we would be having a completely different conversation about Michel. With the lack of involvement in the passing game (0.86 catches per game), a lack of rushing efficiency (3.28 yards per carry) and the potential for Tom Brady to steal a touchdown or two on quarterback sneaks, Michel is one of the easiest sell-highs in recent memory. Will he have another three touchdown game this year? Possibly, but I’ll take that chance to avoid the floor games that come with Michel’s volatile method of fantasy production.
Wide Receiver
Marvin Jones – This is another incredibly obvious sell-high. Jones scored four touchdowns on 13 targets in week 7. He scored 43.3 PPR points, but didn’t even top 100 yards. Per Derek Carty (@DerekCarty on Twitter), Kenny Golladay recorded less than a 5% target share only once before in his career. Golladay is still the clear WR1 in the Lions offense, so I’m selling Jones for some pieces to help me through the bye weeks.
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