Buy Low
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Running Back
Darrell Henderson – Henderson was one of my off-season favorites as I bought him as the 5th overall rookie pick in my main dynasty draft. He started the season stuck behind Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown, but has been more involved now that Brown has missed a few games due to injury. In week 8, Henderson saw 13 touches including three targets, and Gurley saw just ten touches and one target. Even if Brown returns, it seems Henderson has carved out a role in this Rams offense. Henderson may only be worth a flex play right now, but if anything happens to Gurley, there’s a shot Henderson become a RB1. He’s a flex with RB1 upside who you can get for a bench player (or even add from waivers!).
Still buying: Le’Veon Bell
Wide Receiver
Allen Robinson – Robinson hasn’t seen his target count drop below seven this year and has seen as high as 16 targets. Mitchell Trubisky is a major problem when considering buying Robinson, but Robinson is a top-15 PPR wide receiver even with awful quarterback play. Robinson has 49% of the Bears’ wide receiver air yards and 49% of the wide receiver targets this season (via airyards.com). I know Trubisky is the quarterback, but it’s rare to see this much work going to one receiver. I’m buying Robinson before he plays the Eagles this week.
Still buying: Courtland Sutton, Mike Williams, Marquise Brown
Tight End
George Kittle – In a game where the 49ers run game dominated and they didn’t need Kittle in the second half of the game, he still scored 14.6 PPR points. Kittle also had his third touchdown called back this season due to penalty. He’s the 6th best fantasy tight end this year, but could be much better had one or more of those touchdowns counted. It’s comforting to know the floor games for Kittle are still near ten PPR points while the upside remains as high as any tight end. Kittle will play against the Cardinals (everyone’s favorite defense to pick on with tight ends), twice in the next three weeks. Buy Kittle before Thursday’s game.
Still buying – Zach Ertz – Ertz is second in targets and second in air yards among tight ends this year. Like Kittle, he’s scored just once. With three straight games under ten PPR points, the buying window is wide open if you’re not worried about Dallas Goedert’s recent production.
Sell High
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Quarterback
Daniel Jones – Jones finished week eight as the top fantasy quarterback. He scored 28.2 fantasy points and threw four touchdowns. The Lions scored an early defensive touchdown, leading to a great game script for Jones. The Lions defense folded down the stretch, giving up most of their points when they were ahead by double-digits. Saquon Barkley is still the top option to score on the Giants, and the Giants offense is not a powerhouse with paths for 4-5 touchdowns each game. I think there are better options available in redraft leagues, and I don’t believe Jones is a must-hold 1-QB league dynasty asset.
Running Back
Tevin Coleman – Since he returned from injury, Coleman has 75.7 PPR points and six touchdowns in four games. My issue with Coleman is his touchdowns have accounted for 43.2% of his fantasy production. For reference, Leonard Fournette has just 4.2% of his fantasy production from touchdowns. Here are some other notables and their percentage of fantasy points from touchdowns: Christian McCaffrey (28.7%), Dalvin Cook (28.0%), Nick Chubb (26.0%), Saquon Barkley (19.3%), Ezekiel Elliott (26.5%), James Conner (19.3%), Aaron Jones (36.6%), Alvin Kamara (10.9%)
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Without the touchdowns, Coleman averages just 9.9 PPR points per week (Leonard Fournette is averaging 17.2 non-touchdown PPR points per week).
With a coach set on using multiple running backs in the offense, I have a hard time trusting Coleman as more than a flex. I think of him as Sony Michel on a worse offense, so I’m selling before the touchdowns disappear.
Kenyan Drake – Use Drake’s trade to the Cardinals to sell him before Thursday. Drake will play the 49ers on a short week this week. The following week, he’ll play the Buccaneers who rank 1st in rush defense DVOA (via Football Outsiders). Then he’ll see the 49ers again, followed by a bye week. By that time, if not sooner, David Johnson should be fully healthy, and it’s possible Chase Edmonds returns by this time as well.
Wide Receiver
Wide receivers who scored 20+ PPR points last week.
Mike Evans, Cooper Kupp, Kenny Golladay, Julian Edelman, Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chris Conley
I’m not sure you can get anything for Conley, but you can try. Basically, the top WRs in week eight are all elite and this is more of the expectation rather than the outlier. No need to sell high this week on the top wide receivers.
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