Bovada Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Monday, February 26
I don’t know what it is about Friday’s but my NBA picks seem to struggle to close out the week more often than not. Last Friday my Sides were dreadful going 2-6 ATS (-12.3 units). At least my Totals finished in the black going 5-4 ATS (+1.1 units). I have shifted a little more focus toward the last five games in my model starting today as I feel it is a more accurate barometer of how teams are playing late in the season. We’ll see if it allows me to go on a hot streak. Big 10-game NBA slate on Monday with some high Bovada Totals but also some big double-digit favorites.
Each day as part of my NBA DFS process I utilize past statistical data from the season and last five games to calculate a projected the game score for each NBA game. I utilize that predicted game score to help generate my player projections and determine where I disagree with “Vegas” on either which teams or players will perform well or if the game flow will generate more points and thus fantasy points. This information is useful to try to determine where I might be more or less interested in a team or player in DFS than the general public, who often utilized the Vegas lines in their analysis.
In my write-up, I will include a matchup matrix with a variety of data including the Bovada betting line, Days of rest, Season and Last 5 game scoring averages and Pace ranking. Next in the matrix will be a Blended score for the Season and Last 5 games that are derived averaging the Offensive and opposing team’s Defensive points, the Bovada (Vegas) implied game score and finally my Predicted Score that factors in a variety statistics including pace, offensive, and defensive efficiency, and so on.
I will then write up my “DFS Advice” which lists a variety of my thoughts at a high level about the day’s NBA slate from a DFS perspective. Finally, I will list all of my “Bovada Betting Tips” based on my Predicted Score compared to the Bovada line (as of about 1pm EST). I will also rate each “bet” from 0 to 5 stars with 0 being a weak play and 5 being a strong play.
HUGE DISCLAIMER: I only provide my “bets” for recreational purposes. I do not place wagers myself and only utilize this data in my DFS analysis and play. That said, I will compile my results to see how they perform and look to improve on them as the rest of the season progresses.
DFS Advice
Teams in Pace Up matchups:
- Pistons
- Hawks
- Knicks
- Thunder
- Jazz
Teams in Pace Down matchups:
- Raptors
- Lakers
- Warriors
- Magic
- Rockets
Highest Scoring teams according to my metrics:
- Pelicans
- Warriors
- Raptors
- Lakers
- Hawks
Lowest Scoring teams according to my metrics:
- Grizzlies
- Jazz
- Pistons
- Rockets
- Magic
Teams I expect to be more productive than the line:
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- Hawks
- Grizzlies
- Pelicans
- Mavericks
- Knicks
Teams I expect to be less productive than the line:
- Rockets
- Thunder
- Suns
- Timberwolves
- Jazz
General Overview:
- Cash Game targets:
- Pelicans (High Scoring, More Productive)
- Knicks (Pace Up, More Productive)
- Lakers (High Scoring)
- Suns
- GPP targets
- Hawks (Pace Up, High Scoring, More Productive)
- Potential Fades:
- Rockets (Pace Down, Low Scoring, Less Productive)
- Jazz (Low Scoring, Less Productive)
Bovada Betting Tips
Today’s plays
Sides
- Pelicans -7.5 (5-star)
- Magic +10.5 (5-star)
- Kings +5.5 (5-star)
- Grizzlies +12 (3-star)
- Hawks +2.5 (2-star)
- Knicks +12 (2-star)
- Jazz +3 (2-star)
- Raptors -10.5 (1-star)
- Bulls +5 (1-star)
Totals
- Rockets/Jazz Under 214 (5-star)
- Magic/Thunder Under 219 (4-star)
- Bulls/Nets Under 217 (2-star)
- Suns/Pelicans Under 236 (2-star)
- Grizzlies/Celtics Over 204 (1-star)
- Lakers/Hawks Over 222 (1-star)
- Pacers/Mavericks Over 210 (1-star)
- Timberwolves/Kings Under 216 (1-star)
Previous Results
| Sides | W | L | T | Win % | Units |
| 5-star | 15 | 10 | 0 | 60.0% | +20.0 |
| 4-star | 11 | 10 | 0 | 52.4% | 0.0 |
| 3-star | 13 | 9 | 0 | 59.1% | +9.3 |
| 2-star | 17 | 15 | 0 | 53.1% | +1.0 |
| 1-star | 15 | 18 | 2 | 45.5% | -4.8 |
| Overall | 71 | 62 | 2 | 53.4% | +25.5 |
| Totals | W | L | T | Win % | Units |
| 5-star | 3 | 2 | 3 | 60.0% | +4.0 |
| 4-star | 7 | 6 | 1 | 53.8% | +1.6 |
| 3-star | 14 | 9 | 2 | 60.9% | +12.3 |
| 2-star | 23 | 14 | 0 | 62.2% | +15.2 |
| 1-star | 29 | 21 | 4 | 58.0% | +5.9 |
| Overall | 76 | 52 | 10 | 59.4% | +39.0 |
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