Bovada NBA Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Thursday (2/22/18)

Bovada Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Thursday, February 22

The NBA All-Star break is finally behind us so we can get back to the rest of the regular season starting with a six-game slate on Thursday night. I have made a couple minor tweaks to my Score Prediction model but the outcome for Thursday’s slate is still to pound the Dogs and Unders. I will also do some housekeeping by officially removing all the “0-star” picks and results from my write-ups going forward.

Each day as part of my NBA DFS process I utilize past statistical data from the season and last five games to calculate a projected the game score for each NBA game. I utilize that predicted game score to help generate my player projections and determine where I disagree with “Vegas” on either which teams or players will perform well or if the game flow will generate more points and thus fantasy points. This information is useful to try to determine where I might be more or less interested in a team or player in DFS than the general public, who often utilized the Vegas lines in their analysis.

In my write-up, I will include a matchup matrix with a variety of data including the Bovada betting line, Days of rest, Season and Last 5 game scoring averages and Pace ranking. Next in the matrix will be a Blended score for the Season and Last 5 games that are derived averaging the Offensive and opposing team’s Defensive points, the Bovada (Vegas) implied game score and finally my Predicted Score that factors in a variety statistics including pace, offensive, and defensive efficiency, and so on.

I will then write up my “DFS Advice” which lists a variety of my thoughts at a high level about the day’s NBA slate from a DFS perspective. Finally, I will list all of my “Bovada Betting Tips” based on my Predicted Score compared to the Bovada line (as of about 1pm EST). I will also rate each “bet” from 0 to 5 stars with 0 being a weak play and 5 being a strong play.

HUGE DISCLAIMER: I only provide my “bets” for recreational purposes. I do not place wagers myself and only utilize this data in my DFS analysis and play. That said, I will compile my results to see how they perform and look to improve on them as the rest of the season progresses.

DFS Advice

Teams in Pace Up matchups:

• None, only small differences

Teams in Pace Down matchups:

• None, only small differences

Highest Scoring teams according to my metrics:

• Warriors
• Cavaliers
• Clippers
• Magic

Lowest Scoring teams according to my metrics:

• Knicks
• Kings
• Bulls
• Thunder

Teams I expect to be more productive than the line:

• Nets

Teams I expect to be less productive than the line:

• Thunder
• Warriors

General Overview:

• Cash Game targets:
  • Warriors (High Scoring)
  • Cavaliers (High Scoring)
  • Clippers (High Scoring)
• GPP targets
  • Nets (More Productive)
  • Magic (High Scoring)
• Potential Fades:
  • Thunder (Low Scoring, Less Productive)

Bovada Betting Tips

Today’s plays

Sides

• Kings +7.5 (5-star)
• Nets +8 (4-star)
• Clippers +11 (3-star)
• Knicks +4 (2-star)
• Wizards +6 (2-star)
• Bulls +7 (2-star)

Totals

• Thunder/Kings Under 214 (4-star)
• Clippers/Warriors Under 234 (4-star)
• Wizards/Cavaliers Under 221 (3-star)
• Knicks/Magic Under 216 (2-star)
• Nets/Hornets Under 216 (1-star)
• Sixers/Bulls Under 213 (1-star)

Previous Results

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