Man, am I glad Week 4 is behind us. I had some of the worst calls I think I have ever made last week and I apologize for that. I missed on more picks than I hit, and Facebook and Twitter let me know about it.
He wasn’t the only one to call me out, but no need to beat up myself too much. If I can’t take criticism then I shouldn’t be doing this. I put in some work this week going back to basics. I need to get this bad taste out of my mouth and put Week 4 behind me. On to Week 5…
| Explosive Play | My top play for the position |
| Deep Threat | A deep threat is a second or third tier player that will outperform their price on FanDuel/DraftKings. |
| Hail Mary | Also know as a punt, a Hail Mary is a cheap, low-owned player with a ton of upside. Great for GPP's. |
| Missed Tackle | A missed tackle is a first or second tier player that I’ll be fading in my contests. |
* Prices are based on FanDuel, but most plays will crossover to DraftKings as well
**Main Slate, Sunday Only
Quarterbacks
Explosive Play | Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) vs NYJ $8,600
Take a look at these two QBs touchdowns to interception ratios since 2014 through Week 4 of this year:
Quarterback A: 17 TDs/ 16 Ints
Quarterback B: 47 TDs/ 13 Ints
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Obviously, if you are picking a DFS QB from those two, you would take B, right? What if I told you that quarterback A was Roethlisberger? Say What? Yes, it’s true, but quarterback B is also Roethlisberger. QB A is Big Ben on the road over the last 2-plus years, QB B is Big Ben at home…he is at home this weekend against the Jets who are bottom five in FanDuel points allowed to opposing QBs. Need I say more?
Deep Threat | Derek Carr (OAK) vs SD $8,100
This game has the highest O/U on the slate, currently sitting at 49.5 points, and honestly, I would take the over. The Chargers were already bottom ten in FanDuel points allowed to opposing QBs before losing Pro Bowl CB Jason Verrett for the season. Carr and Co. will have little resistance throwing the ball all over the field.
Hail Mary |Â Carson Wentz (PHI) @ DET $7,500
Only the Falcons are worse than the Lions in FanDuel points allowed to QBs so far this year, and they have allowed, on average, three passing TDs per game this year. Wentz has yet to throw more than two TDs in a game this season, but my bold prediction this week is that he will have his first three touchdown day today in Detroit. This game offers some good stack appeal with either Zach Ertz or Jordan Matthews.
Missed Tackle | Tom Brady (NE) @ CLE $8,700
Okay, before you kill me for putting Brady in my missed tackle column, let me defend it first. Everyone, and I mean everyone, will be on Brady this weekend. He may light it up, but he also might be a little rusty having not been with the team over the past month. Brady will be more of a cash game play for me, but fade him in your GPPs.
Others I like: Philip Rivers $8,300
Running Backs
Explosive Play | LeSean McCoy (BUF) @ LA $7,800
To use a basketball term, McCoy’s usage rate has to be one of the higher ones in the league. Take a look at his total opportunities (targets + rushing attempts):
Week 1: 20
Week 2: 20
Week 3: 21
Week 4: 25
You don’t have to be a math major to notice his “usage” increasing over the last two weeks, which just happens to coincide with the Sammy Watkins injury. The Rams are middle of the pack in FanDuel points allowed to RBs, but David Johnson still had over 100 total yards against them last week in a game where the Cardinals struggled mightily. You can expect McCoy to see 20-25 touches again this week, and that kind of volume makes him a top play.
Deep Threat | Jordan Howard (CHI) @ IND $7,200
Howard was excellent last week against Detroit, rushing for over 100 yards and adding 21 receiving yards. What you really like about it was his 26 total touches and the 4.8 yards per carry. The Colts are bottom four against the RB position and that will continue this week as I expect another 100-plus yards and a score from Howard this week.
Hail Mary | Terrance West (BAL) vs WAS $6,400
Justin Forsett has been released, Kenneth Dixon is making his NFL debut, and Javorius Allen had a total of five touches in Week 4. That leaves West as the clear-cut lead back, at least for now, and he gets a dream matchup with the Redskins, bottom three in FanDuel points allowed to RBs. At $6,400, where do I sign up?
Missed Tackle | Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) vs CIN $7,900
Elliot has two straight 100-plus yard games, but they were against weak run defenses in the 49ers and Bears. This week he has to go up against the Bengals that rank as a top-seven defense in terms of FanDuel points allowed to RBs.
Others I like: DeMarco Murray $8,400, C.J. Anderson $8,000
Wide Receivers
Explosive Play |Â Brandon Marshall (NYJ) @ PIT $7,600
Eric Decker is expected to miss yet another game, and could end up missing a lot more. In Decker’s absence last week, Marshall had 12 targets — even though he was defended primarily by Richard Sherman. Granted, he only caught four of those targets, but it was more about Ryan Fitzpatrick‘s propensity to feed his No. 1 WR targets no matter what the situation. The Steelers’ defense is allowing a healthy 28.63 fantasy points to WRs this year, and the Jets figure to be playing from behind for much of this game so Fitzgerald may throw the ball 50-plus times.
Deep Threat | Amari Cooper (OAK) vs SD $7,200
Cooper is the more talented WR for the Raiders, but Michael Crabtree has been the better WR so far this year. That changes this week. As I mentioned already, the Chargers lost their Pro-Bowl CB Verrett. He is the CB that would have typically matched up with Cooper, but with Verrett on IR, Cooper should have his way with this defense. Cooper lit up the Chargers in Week 7 of last year with 133 yards and a TD — he will be in that neighborhood this weekend.
Hail Mary | Steve Smith Sr. (BAL) vs WAS $6,300
Everyone is looking for a Steve Smith-Josh Norman matchup, but that isn’t going to happen. The majority of Steve Smith’s snaps have come from the slot, a place that Norman does not line up, ever. Smith will play some on the outside as well, so he may see some of Josh Norman, but not enough for me to be afraid of Smith. The Redskins are bottom five in defending WRs and Smith leads the Ravens in targets after four games, at $6,300, he is a steal.
Missed Tackle | Julio Jones (ATL) @ DEN $8,900
I went against convention last week and took Mike Evans against this Denver defense. My thinking being the sheer volume of targets he would receive would make him viable. I was wrong. Even after Jones shredded the Panthers, I’ll still be avoiding him this week.
Others I like: Michael Crabtree $6,900, Dontrelle Inman $6,100
Tight Ends
Explosive Play | Zach Ertz (PHI) @ DET $5,600
This is easily the top play at tight end today. Ertz is returning to the starting lineup after missing the last few weeks with a rib injury, and he gets a dream matchup with the Lions. The Lions have allowed six TDs in four games and at least one in every game to tight ends this year. That’s not good. “Thank you, Captain Obvious”.
Deep Threat | Hunter Henry (SD) @ OAK $5,400
Assuming Antonio Gates misses another game, Henry has a great matchup with the Raiders. On paper, the Raiders look to be decent in defending the tight end, but if you dive a little deeper you’ll see they have benefitted from some good matchups, don’t be fooled, the Raiders still can’t defend tight ends after finishing last year third worst.
Hail Mary | Virgil Green (DEN) vs ATL $4,800
I stated above the Lions have allowed six TDs in four games to TEs, but the Falcons have actually been worse. They rank dead last in points allowed to tight ends, and if Virgil Green makes his return from injury as expected, he could be a sneaky play.
Missed Tackle | Every Tight End over $6,000
I’m not a fan of any of the top-tier tight ends this week. A combination of price and matchups make all of them too risky to pay up for this week.
Others I like: Kyle Rudolph $5,500, Zach Miller $5,400
Defense
Explosive Play | Vikings vs HOU $4,700
I don’t really need to explain to you why the Vikings are the top defense this week. They are just that good.
Deep Threat | LA Rams vs BUF $4,700
This game will be ugly. Neither offense is particularly good and either defense could be viable in this game.
Hail Mary | Bills @ LA $4,600
see above
Missed Tackle | Patriots @ CLE $4,800
This is more about ownership and price than me predicting the Browns to be good offensively. Everyone will be on the Patriots, but I think you can save some money and get just as many points from your defense elsewhere.
Others I like: Eagles @ DET $4,600
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