DETERMINING PLAYER SELECTION IN NFL DFS – PART TWO

In Part One of the article we discussed basic value in the two types of contests (cash games and tournaments, or GPPs) we generally encounter in daily fantasy sports, and how to exploit match-ups and use players past performances to help us identify the players we want in our line-ups. In this article we’re going to dig a little deeper into our tools available to give us the edge we’ll need to win our contests. Since there’s a salary cap in DFS, we’ll also look at ways to identify less expensive players, who’ll we’ll need in our line-ups to help us afford the studs, who can score fantasy points in bunches.

VEGAS

In Part One I briefly touched on this resource, as it allows us to select players from games that are predicted to be high scoring affairs. By simply looking at the over/under line, we can tell which games Vegas predicts will have high scores. Players from these games get a bump because they’ll have a better chance of scoring big fantasy points.

We can go much deeper that merely using the over under, we can also use Vegas odds to determine potential game flow. We do this by looking at the point spread. A O/U with a close point spread means both teams will likely score a lot of points and still be working hard to score until the end of the game, this a very appealing game from a fantasy perspective. A big spread indicates a potential blowout where the teams may be on cruise control in the 4^th or even resting starters. Players in this type of game get a downgrade.

Let me give you a couple of example to illustrate my point. Let’s say Green Bay is a 13 point favorite at home against Cleveland. Green Bay will not have to score a ton of points, because the Browns offense isn’t very good. The score at the half has Green Bay up 24-7. The Packers will basically be on cruise control in the second half with Aaron Rodgers handing off more than he’s throwing. Also, he’ll like be handing off to James Starks rather than Eddie Lacy, as Green Bay won’t want to burn out their top running back in a blowout. This is a situation to avoid.

Now, let’s use Green Bay’s real life week 1 match up against Chicago as another example. Green Bay is a small favorite versus the Bears in a game with a high O/U. This is fantasy gold. The Packers are likely to have a small lead in the 4^th quarter with both teams scoring a lot of points. Now Rodgers might still be throwing and when he’s handing off it’ll likely be to Lacy. On the other side of the ball, Jay Cutler should be winging it until the end, trying to play catch up, so he and his receivers should be in a great position to score a lot of fantasy points.

Basically we should always give a nice bump to players in games with high Vegas totals. More specifically though, I give a bump to running backs in these games whose team is expected to win and I try to target quarterbacks and receivers whose team is expected to lose.

 INJURIES

Injuries are an unfortunate aspect of all sports, but we can use them to give us an edge in DFS. Generally speaking, most fantasy sites publish their contests on Tuesday morning, after the Monday night game, so known injuries are accounted for and the injured player’s back-up will be more expensive than he would have been without the starter being injured. We still get a discount, but not a huge one. For example, if Sam Bradford tears his ACL in the 2^nd quarter of a Sunday afternoon game, sites will adjust Mark Sanchez salary to reflect that he’s the starter. He still might be a decent value, but not the huge value he would have been had Bradford’s injury not been known.

Injuries that occur after the sites publish their contests for the week are much more beneficial to us, as the new starters’ salaries have not been adjusted to reflect their current status. A great example of this was when Cam Newton had a mid-week car accident last season and Derek Anderson got a spot start against Tampa Bay. Priced at the QB minimum of $5,000 on FanDuel, he scored 18.2 fantasy points, more than 3 times value! Last season Mark Ingram also benefitted from injuries to the rest of the Saints running back committee, that vaulted him to the roll of bell cow RB. Also be on the lookout for starters who are listed as “questionable” or “doubtful” and be ready to pivot to their replacements if they’re ruled out and the match-up is favorable.

A final point concerning injuries, also look at defensive injuries and use these when determining match-ups and values. For example, if the Falcons are playing the Jets, Julio Jones might not be a great value at his high salary because he’d be covered by Darrelle Revis. Now if Revis were injured, Jones becomes a much better value.

NEW ROLES

A “new role” is quite simply what it sounds like, it’s when a player assumes a new role on the team. This can be a player assuming a starting role due to another player being benched, a running back being moved into or out of a committee, etc. Players who are being promoted into the starting line up or running backs who have taken over the bell cow role after being in a committee should basically be treated like injury replacements. Also, since these announcements almost always occur after fantasy sites have published their contests for the week, special attention should be placed on these players, since their salaries do not reflect their new role on the team.

As with injury replacements, do not just blindly insert these cheap options into your line ups. The player’s skill set and their match ups, as well as projected game flow, should always be studied and analyzed and take precedent over salary considerations.

OVERLAY

Simply put, overlay occurs when a GPP fails to fill to capacity. While entering a contest that overlays won’t help you put together a better line up, it will help the line-up you have cash. Let’s say there’s a guaranteed contest with a 10,000 entry limit that locks with only 5,000 entries. Normally around the top 20% win money in a GPP, but since was only half full, now the top 40% win. This is an extreme example but even if a contest only fills to 75%, the top 30%, rather than 20% win money.

Sites take great care to ensure that contests fill, but overlay still occurs from time to time. I like to be on-line right before the contests lock, in the lobby on every site in which I’m playing. In the last couple of minutes before lock, if I see a contest obviously overlaying, I start slamming line-ups (which I already have made up, since I’m playing on that site) in. Make a habit of doing this, especially on short slates that start later in the day, like the Sunday 4PM slate or the “Prime Time” slate on FanDuel. It will eventually pay dividends.

Use these techniques when selecting your players to fill out your line ups. At the end of the day, daily fantasy sports is hard and you’ll need an edge to make yourself profitable. These advanced techniques will give you that edge over casual players who are just “picking guys.”

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