For the next few days, I’ll be unable to write a complete article. I have limited time available, so I will not have time to produce a pitcher chart or write a full article. Here is a short write up for pitcher and hitters. Make sure to look for the article in the mornings, and by Monday (July 16) I should be back with my full pitcher chart and article!
Scherzer is your top option of the day by almost eight DK points. If you’re not playing him in cash games tonight, you might want to consider avoiding cash games in the future. Just like we saw with Chris Sale yesterday, high-priced aces are still the most valuable, even if the bats are in strong spots. Both Cleveland and Colorado put up 19 runs, but if you didn’t have Sale, you were still in a hole. Play Scherzer in cash games, then worry about the rest of your lineup.
It’s a bad park for strikeouts, but Taillon costs just $5,700. He’s the cash game pair with Scherzer who allows you to fit some of the top bats. It makes no sense why Taillon would be priced this low. He was $8,400 against Milwaukee less than a month ago. At $5,700, we would need about 15 DK points to be completely satisfied. Taillon will be popular, so my tournament interest will be determined by the Milwaukee lineup. Keon Broxton, Brad Miller, and Jacob Nottingham all strike out over 30% of the time. Nate Orf, Jonathan Villar, Eric Thames, and Jesus Aguilar all strike out over 25% of the time. If the Brewers lineup contains enough of these players, I’ll have interest in Taillon for tournaments, even at high ownership.
Corey Kluber/Luis Severino
Although they are great pitchers, I’m not touching Kluber or Severino in cash games or tournaments on Thursday, even at their cheap prices. If it ends up working out for someone else, good for them, but it’s not a smart probability play to roster either of these pitchers today.
In tournaments, if you fade Scherzer, Stripling would be my favorite SP1. He’ll garner some ownership, but there is upside against the Padres. Some may even play Stripling as a pair with Scherzer in cash games, but I personally believe Taillon is the better SP2 option considering the price difference.
If you’re playing the early slate, or even the all-day slate, feel free to load up on Coors bats. Both teams have high expected run totals, even with solid pitchers in the game. Only Boston has a team run total close to the two Coors teams today.
On the main slate, the Dodgers look like the best option to score runs, but I’ve found it difficult to predict where the runs will come from. Justin Turner is the easiest to roster due to his cheap price, while Cody Bellinger has the most upside, assuming he’s batting near the top of the order.
Outside of the Dodgers, quality stacks are sparse. Most of the teams project for a team run total of less than five. In lieu of more stacks, here are players I believe are underpriced for this slate.
Mitch Garver ($2,800)
David Freese ($3,200)
Jonathan Villar ($3,400) – if he’s leading off
Brian Dozier ($4,000)
Justin Turner ($4,200)
Kike Hernandez ($3,400)
Jordy Mercer ($3,200) – as long as he’s not batting 8th
Michael Conforto ($3,000) – tournament only
Kevin Kiermaier ($3,900)
Joc Pederson ($4,300)