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Stephen Strasburg (Scratched)
Strasburg is will face the Marlins in Marlins Park. He’s the top option on the slate and is priced at $12,000 on DraftKings. He’s in a tier of his own on Thursday and is a lock in cash games. The Marlins are the sixth worst offense according to wRC+ and have a strikeout rate of 22.9% against righties. If you want to fade Strasburg in tournaments and hope he blows up at high ownership, I understand the play, but it isn’t highly probable. I’ll have Strasburg locked into my cash games and tournaments.
Gray face the Royals in Yankee Stadium. He’s priced well for an SP2 at $8,200 on DraftKings and makes a solid pair with Strasburg for cash games. Gray is the biggest favorite on the slate, giving him a fantastic shot at the win. He also has the second lowest OTT (see pitcher chart), only behind Strasburg. Gray is not usually someone the DFS community loves to roster as he has a 5.34 ERA this season and multiple negative fantasy point games this season. At the same time, his SIERA is about a full run better and he’s shown upside scoring at least 20 DK points in four of his past nine games. I’ll have Gray as my SP2 on DraftKings, even if it is a bit contrarian.
With Strasburg scratched, we will have to find an SP2 to pair with Gray. I’m leaning toward Mahle against the Phillies and their 25.2% strikeout rate.