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Gray will face the Braves in SunTrust Park. The Braves have been an overrated offense all season, and with Ronald Acuna’s dominance over the past week, they may continue to be overrated for some time. Truth is, the Braves are a good offense, ranking 10th in wRC+, but are far from elite. Gray gets a park upgrade traveling to SunTrust Park and has an OTT of four. He has a 27.1% strikeout rate this season, highest number on the slate. At $8,700, Gray is one of my favorite cash game pitchers on Thursday, and if the ownership is low enough, I’ll load up on him in tournaments as well.
Teheran will be opposite Gray in the matchup in SunTrust Park. He’ll face a Rockies offense that is much worse on the road. The Rockies rank 27th in wRC+ and take a big park downgrade. Teheran struggles against lefties, so Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl worry me a little, but there’s enough to like for $8,200. It’s reasonable to expect 16-19 DK points from Teheran. On a typical slate, I may avoid Teheran, but on a limited slate like this one, he’s viable as an SP2 for cash games and tournaments.
I get the appeal of Buchholz, especially if you’re a game-log watcher. He has a great matchup against the Padres and a shiny 2.67 ERA. However, his SIERA is 4.12 so he’s pitching much worse than his ERA suggests. For $9,500, I can’t get behind Buchholz, especially when Teheran and Gray project similarly for a cheaper price. I will have 0% Buchholz in tournaments, and will avoid him in cash games as well.