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Nola will face the Marlins in Citizens Bank Park. He’s the highest priced pitcher on DraftKings at $12,400. The Marlins have the fourth worst wRC+ in the league and Citizens Bank Park is a great park for strikeouts. Nola has a 2.35 ERA this season and a 3.51 SIERA which ranks 16th overall among qualified pitchers, and second on the slate behind Jon Gray. In cash games, I’m playing Nola against the righty-heavy Marlins.
Duffy will face the Twins in Target Field. He’s a slight underdog and has an OTT of 4.5 (see pitcher chart), but I frequently find Vegas odds pessimistic toward Duffy. The Twins have the fourth highest strikeout rate and the fourth worst wRC+ against lefties this season. Most of that is with Eduardo Escobar and Brian Dozier. Duffy has at least 21 DK points in seven of his last ten games, creating a fairly solid floor against a weakened Twins offense.
Cahill will face the Tigers in the Coliseum. He’s the biggest favorite of the day and has the lowest OTT. The Tigers have a middling strikeout rate on the season, but have really struggled recently, striking out at the fourth highest rate over the past 30 days. The Tigers also rank last in wRC+ this season. Not only do the Tigers rank last in wRC+ this year, they are also last over the past 30 days with a wRC+ of 60. The Mets rank 29th over the past 30 days with a wRC+ of 75. The Tigers are a sputtering offense that Cahill can take advantage of and provide value for $7,400 on the afternoon slate.