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Bauer will face the Twins in Progressive Field. He’s a big favorite against Kyle Gibson and has an OTT of 3.5 (see pitcher chart). The Twins are a middle-of-the-pack offense, but have gotten worse after trading away key pieces. They also recently added Miguel Sano to the offense. Sano is a power hitter, but has a strikeout rate of 39.7% this season, adding some upside for Bauer. Bauer has allowed just 0.41 HR/9 this season, so I’m not too worried about Sano taking him out of the park. Averaging 25.5 DK points per game this season, I’ve played Bauer frequently this season, and Monday looks like another good day to plug him into our lineups.
Morton will face the Giants in AT&T Park. He gets a park upgrade as well as a positive league shift. Morton will face Dereck Rodriguez instead of a DH in this game, boosting his upside and helping him navigate the batting order. He has the lowest OTT of the slate, and is a moderate favorite. The Giants strike out 22.8% of the time and Morton owns a 30.8% strikeout rate. It’s a good matchup for Morton and he’s $1,200 less than Bauer on DraftKings. Opposing lineups, weather, and umpire data will help me decide whether to use Morton or Bauer in cash games, but as of now, I’m leaning toward Morton.
Lynn will face the White Sox in Guaranteed Rate Field. Now with the Yankees, Lynn has an better chance at earning wins and is one of the biggest favorites on the slate. He has an OTT of four, but should be able to take advantage of the White Sox 25.5% strikeout rate. The more righties the White Sox put into their lineup, the better I’ll feel about Lynn, but at $7,100, he’ll make a strong case for SP2 no matter what.