There are 11 games scheduled in the MLB for DraftKings main-slate this evening. Coors Field will see a lot of ownership again, as the highest expected run total on the board. With a lot of great GPP’s to enter, let’s take a look at some of the best options.
Rick Porcello (BOS): $9,500 @ TOR
The Toronto Blue Jays started the season on fire with a 13-8 record. However, they are coming off of two poor outings managing just two runs against the Yankees. Their lineup is not intimidating and has a lot of strikeout hitters 1-9. Josh Donaldson is still out with an injury leaving a lot to be desired. Rick Porcello is looking more and more like his former Cy Young-winning self. The Red Sox starter has allowed just four runs, one walk while striking out 23 batters through 25.2 innings of work. He has been exceptional in 2018 and should add to his 4-0 start. While other starting pitchers going tonight have more strikeout upside and “flash” behind their name, I feel that Porcello can outscore every pitcher going tonight against an overrated Blue Jays team.
Vince Velasquez (PHI): $7,000 vs. ARI
After a ton of hype in 2017, Velasquez has somewhat gone under the radar in 2018. Meanwhile, he is quietly putting together a solid start to the season. Although the wins haven’t been there for the 25-year-old, the strikeout rate is up, the HR/FB and Hard Contact % are way down. Philadelphia will host the Diamondbacks, who are uncharacteristically struggling out of the gate. The team has been saved by some incredible pitching performances, while the offense is slumping. With a 25.9% K rate, .225 AVG, and 95 wRC+, Velasquez gets a pretty favorable matchup. I am still unsure of what the perceived ownership will be on Velasquez, but either way, he is a great upside starter.
Jake Faria (TB): $6,300 @ BAL
Hopefully going overlooked this evening, Jake Faria will take the mound for his fifth start. This recommendation is a little scary. I would almost consider a hedge stack of Orioles in another lineup. Faria is a great young pitcher coming up in the Rays system who already has one of the better off-speed stuff in the game. There is a lot of risk attached to rostering Faria, but the upside is huge, against a very strikeout-prone team. The O’s are striking out at a 26.9% clip and were shut down against Carlos Carrasco last night.
Chalk – High owned stacks
1.) Colorado Rockies
Even though it was the Padres who poured in the runs last night, Coors Field prevailed, showcasing 18 runs scored. Tonight, the Rockies are once again projected to score the most runs on the night as they take on Eric Lauer. He is a left-handed pitcher, so loading up on the power-hitting righties will be imperative. Nolan Arenado is the top hitter this evening, followed by Trevor Story. Both homered last night.
2.) San Diego Padres
Playing in Colorado makes any team look like a team full of all-stars. In a 37 minute long seventh inning, the Padres piled up the hits and runs against the home team. DraftKings has not increased the price of hitters in this game enough, making them affordable and hard to fade. Wil Myers is locked in right now and is my favorite player to roster, on the Padres, while surrounding him with hitters in the lineup. Do not forget about Franchy Cordero who hit a bomb in Arizona which could have traveled 500 feet, followed up by a 453 footer last night.
Low owned stacks
With so many other options to look at and the Coors Field game being “the chalk”, every other team should be somewhat contrarian. Oakland has been a great hitting team this year. Leading the league in wRC+ and ranked second only to the Yankees in team wOBA, the Athletics are showcasing a lot of power throughout the lineup. Tonight, they will see veteran Cole Hamels at Globe Life Park. While the Rangers ace has had some solid outings, the aging lefty has given up a lot of home runs. In his first five starts this season, Hamels has allowed seven long balls. In an extreme hitters park, the Rangers bullpen is also ranked among the league-worst which bodes well for the A’s hitters.
At home, the Dodgers will host Dillon Peters and the Miami Marlins tonight. Currently sitting with a 6.98 ERA, Peters has struggled this season. Specifically, in his last start against the Brewers, Peters allowed four earned runs while walking five hitters through just four innings of work. This Dodgers team is full of talent and are waiting to break-out in a big way. The left-handed hitters on the Dodgers will go overlooked due to the same handedness matchup. This will be a mistake because Peters should not last long in this one.
A fun team stack is the Pittsburgh Pirates. Always under-owned and overlooked, the Pirates do not necessarily have massive power hitters or superstars, but can string together hits and runs throughout the lineup. Jordan Zimmerman will take the mound for Detroit who has been serviceable in a couple of starts. That being said, he is due for regression. His 24.7% strikeout rate is the highest of his career and we should not expect this to continue. Giving up 41.2% Hard Contact, Zimmerman has been a little lucky and probably due to the cooler weather. There are weather concerns in this game, so be sure to confirm the status of this game before loading up on the Pirates.
Charlie Blackmon $5,800 vs. SD
Bryce Harper $5,300 @ SF
Khris Davis $4,700 @ TEX
Lorenzo Cain $4,500 @ KC
Starling Marte $4,300 vs. DET
Ian Desmond $4,200 vs. SD
Gregory Polonco $4,100 vs. DET
Franchy Cordero $3,900 @ COL
Yasiel Puig $3,800 vs. MIA
Chris Taylor $3,700 vs. MIA
David Dahl $3,500 vs. SD
Mark Canha $3,000 @ TEX
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