MLB DFS Pitcher Chart & Lineup Advice – 5/3/2017
Last Updated: 5/3/2017 –Â 7:07 AM CT
The pitcher chart is located under my top plays!Â
Top Plays
Carlos Carrasco
Carrasco is a heavy favorite and has the lowest OTT (see pitcher chart) on the slate. He’ll face the Tigers, who strike out 21.4% of the time against righties. The danger is, the Tigers also have the third highest wRC+ against right handed pitchers. Vegas doesn’t seem too worried, so I’m not too worried. Carrasco is my top pitcher, although depending on the wind, Jake Arrieta could make a case for the top spot as well.
Drew Pomeranz
Yesterday, I wrote about how horrible the Orioles are against lefties. Pomeranz is a lefty, so all of that analysis applies here too. The difference is, Pomeranz has much higher risk than Chris Sale. I still like Pomeranz, but he does carry some risk. For that reason, I’ll load up on Pomeranz in tournaments, but may avoid him in cash games.
Adam Conley
Conley is simply too cheap and will go under owned after his blow up start last time out. The Rays strike out 27.6% of the time against lefties, highest in the major leagues. At just $6,300 Conley is fairly safe because he doesn’t need to do much to reach value, and with the Rays strikeouts, he has plenty of upside for GPPs.
Mets Lefties…again
DraftKings refuses to raise the prices of the Mets hitters, even after monster performances. Each player in the top four of the order will hold the platoon advantage and will cost $3,500 or less. You can stack each of the top four hitters in the Mets order against Barolo Colon for less than $14,000 and have $6,133 per player remaining to fill out your roster. I love a full stack in tournaments, and will at least have Michael Conforto and Jay Bruce in cash games.
Khris Davis
Davis will face Hector Santiago in Target Field. He’ll hold the platoon advantage and will bat cleanup. He has the highest home run projection on the slate, and is my top overall hitter, yet costs just $4,100 on DraftKings. He’ll be the first player into my lineups on Wednesday.
Miguel Sano
Sano is another player who is simply too cheap for his talent and his production. He’ll face a weak righty in Kendall Graveman, and while Sano strikes out a lot, Graveman has a fairly low strikeout percentage. Sano has four home runs and four multi-hit games in his past five contests. I’m not sure if hot streaks are predictable, but if you believe in hot streaks, Sano is on one.
Notes
Adam Wainwright was a great SP2 option, but it looks like the Brewers vs. Cardinals will be rained out.
Nelson Cruz is my favorite GPP play in the outfield. He’s just $4,300 on DraftKings and has the second-highest home run projection on the slate.
The pitching chart will be updated often. Make sure to check back for the newest information, especially if a column is currently incomplete!
| Pitcher | Team | L/R | $Line | OTT | K | +/- | K% | IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Ray | ARI | L | +115 | 3.5 | 7 | 3.5 | 30.2 | 6 1/3 |
| G. Gonzalez | WAS | L | -125 | 3.5 | 6.5 | 3 | 19.4 | 6 2/3 |
| J. Taillon | PIT | R | -116 | 3.5 | 5 | 1.5 | 19.2 | 6 |
| R. Davis | CIN | R | +107 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 5 1/3 |
| J. deGrom | NYM | R | -123 | 3.5 | 6 | 2.5 | 34.4 | 6 2/3 |
| B. Colon | ATL | R | +114 | 4 | 3.5 | -0.5 | 19.2 | 5 2/3 |
| J. Eickhoff | PHI | R | +174 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 21.9 | 6 1/3 | |
| J. Arrieta | CHC | R | -190 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 27.6 | 7 1/3 | |
| C. Anderson | MIL | R | +134 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 20 | 5 2/3 |
| A. Wainwright | STL | R | -145 | 3.5 | 6 | 2.5 | 22 | 6 2/3 |
| J. Samardzija | SFG | R | +145 | 3.5 | 5 | 1.5 | 25.9 | 6 |
| J. Urias | LAD | L | -157 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 17.4 | 6 |
| A. Senzatela | COL | R | -119 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 1 | 14.3 | 6 1/3 |
| J. Weaver | SDP | R | +110 | 4 | 3.5 | -0.5 | 12.2 | 5 2/3 |
| M. Stroman | TOR | R | -101 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 19.4 | 6 1/3 |
| C. Sabathia | NYY | L | -107 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 15.9 | 5 2/3 |
| K. Gausman | BAL | R | +127 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0 | 13.6 | 5 2/3 |
| D. Pomeranz | BOS | L | -138 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 29.4 | 6 |
| C. Carrasco | CLE | R | -165 | 3 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 26.6 | 6 1/3 |
| M. Boyd | DET | L | +152 | 4.5 | 4 | -0.5 | 17.1 | 5 2/3 |
| M. Pelfrey | CHW | R | +134 | 4 | 2.5 | -1.5 | 7 | 5 1/3 |
| N. Karns | KCR | R | -145 | 3.5 | 5 | 1.5 | 19.2 | 5 2/3 |
| K. Graveman | OAK | R | +110 | 4 | 3.5 | -0.5 | 17.4 | 5 1/3 |
| H. Santiago | MIN | L | -119 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 18.7 | 5 2/3 |
| N. Martinez | TEX | R | +156 | 4.5 | 3 | -1.5 | 20.4 | 5 |
| C. Morton | HOU | R | -170 | 3.5 | 6 | 2.5 | 24.6 | 5 2/3 |
| R. Nolasco | LAA | R | +111 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 5 2/3 |
| H. Iwakuma | SEA | R | -120 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 11.3 | 6 |
| A. Conley | MIA | L | +125 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 18.2 | 5 2/3 |
| B. Snell | TBR | L | -135 | 3.5 | 6 | 2.5 | 15.5 | 5 2/3 |
Key
L/R = Lefty or Righty
$Line = Money Line
OTT = Opposing team’s run total
K = Projected Strikeouts
+/- = OTT-K
K% = Strikeout Percentage
IP = Innings Projection
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Many factors can change between the time I write this article and the time lineups lock. I’ll do my best to update the article, so checking back frequently is encouraged. You can also ask questions on Twitter @fantasbeast15. I’ll do my best to get to all of them!
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