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MLB DFS Pitcher Chart & Lineup Advice – 8/21/2017
Last Updated: 8/21/2017 – 10:01 AM CT
Wood looks like the top option on Monday’s slate, but paying $12,100 for him will be hard to do. The two top priced pitchers, Wood and Cole Hamels, both have sub-optimal matchups against offense that don’t strike out often. Wood is the top option because he’s the most talented pitcher on the slate, has the lowest OTT and is also the largest favorite. We’ll see how lineups work tomorrow, but most will probably end up paying down at pitcher.
Davies is an interesting option for $8,400 on DraftKings. He’s getting a solid park upgrade and the Giants rank 29th in wRC+ against righties. Davies is tied with Wood for the lowest OTT on the slate, so run prevention looks like it will be there. I think Davies is safe, but I worry about his upside. The Giants strike out at the 3rd lowest rate in the league against righties and Davies has a strikeout percentage of just 15%. I don’t expect Davies to go crazy with the strikeouts, but he’s fairly safe for cash games.
In the same game, I like Chris Stratton for tournaments. The Brewers offense gets a major park downgrade and is coming off of three games in Coors Field. Stratton has an OTT of 4, second lowest on the slate. The Brewers have the highest strikeout rate in the league against righties at 25.7%. For just $6,800, Stratton allows you to fit in the bats you want, while giving you strikeout upside in a good park.
The Rangers take a park hit traveling to Angel Stadium. Skaggs is a quality pitcher and he’s priced down at $6,700 on DraftKings. The Rangers strike out 25.1% of the time against lefties, fifth highest rate in the league. They also rank just 24th in wRC+. Skaggs is tied for the second lowest OTT and is the third largest favorite. He looks like the clear cash game SP2.
Machado will face Chris Smith in Camden Yards. The Orioles have a team run total of 5.5, highest on the slate. Machado has the second highest home run projection on the slate. Even priced at $5,600, Machado is a great cash game option. We should have the salary to fit in multiple big bats due to the state of pitching on this slate. The Orioles are my favorite stack of the day, and I’m also considering Chris Davis and Wellington Castillo for cash games. Both Davis and Castillo lead their positions in home run projection.
Kyle Seager/Robinson Cano
The Mariners will face Mike Foltynewicz in SunTrust Park. Cano is a lock for me in cash games at $4,400. He’ll have the platoon advantage and Foltynewicz is too cheap. Seager would have been a lock on a normal slate, but since I have money to spend, I’ll probably go with Machado in cash games. If I need to save salary once lineups come out, dropping down to Seager is a great way to save. Even if I go with Machado, I will have exposure to Seager in tournaments. I like stacking Mariners in tournaments, especially their lefties.
This is an ugly day for pitching. Because there are so many pitcher with close projection, watching lineups as they come out will be more important than usual.
The pitching chart will be updated often. Make sure to check back for the newest information, especially if a column is currently incomplete!
|A. Wood||LAD||L||-163||3.5||5||1.5||26.1||6 1/3|
|G. Cole||PIT||R||+150||4.5||5.5||1||21.9||6 1/3|
|T. Walker||ARI||R||-128||4||5||1||20.5||6 1/3|
|C. Stratton||SFG||R||+104||4||4||0||19.5||5 1/3|
|W. Miley||BAL||L||-158||4.5||5||0.5||19.3||5 2/3|
|E. Rodriguez||BOS||L||+119||5||5||0||26||5 2/3|
|M. Clevinger||CLE||R||-129||4.5||4||-0.5||27.1||4 2/3|
|C. Hamels||TEX||L||+133||4||4.5||0.5||15.7||5 2/3|
|T. Skaggs||LAA||L||-144||4||5.5||1.5||23.1||5 2/3|
L/R = Lefty or Righty
$Line = Money Line
OTT = Opposing team’s run total
K = Projected Strikeouts
+/- = OTT-K
K% = Strikeout Percentage
IP = Innings Projection
Many factors can change between the time I write this article and the time lineups lock. I’ll do my best to update the article, so checking back frequently is encouraged. You can also ask questions on Twitter @fantasbeast15. I’ll do my best to get to all of them!