The key to every UFC card is obviously picking the fight winners. More so than that, the fighter that finishes fights by KO or Submission. That being said let’s take a look at the matchups for Saturday and some of the better value picks as well.
Kyle Stewart ($8,700) vs Chance Rencountre (7,500)
I don’t like this fight a ton for betting purposes, but that is because I know very little about these two fighters. What I like about Rencountre is his cheaper price tag, also he is 12-3 as a fighter winning 8 of the 12 by finishing the fight. On the other side, is Kyle Stewart. Stewart is making his UFC debut and is 11-1 as an MMA fighter. In his 11 fights, he finished 7 of them and lost his only match be a decision. While I am likely not picking this fight for my lineup, I would likely choose Rencountre because of value. However, I am picking Stewart to win the fight.
Winner: StewartÂ
Geoff Neal ($8500) vs Belal Muhammad ($7700)
Neal is 10-2 and has finished both of his fights since becoming a UFC fighter. Only 2 of his fights have ever gone to decision. He won both. I like Neal for a few reasons in this one. The first being that he is averaging 108.3 points per fight. The second being he is a lesser known fighter making him a great tournament play. Lastly, he finishes fights. If you are dead set on choosing this fight, then spend the extra $800 on Neal. This isn’t to say Muhammad is a bad fighter, as he just put up 83 points against Rencountre in a victory. He just isn’t a fighter that I want to bet money on in this scoring. He is a takedown specialist and once he gets there the fight can quickly become boring and low scoring. Even if Muhammad wins this fight there more than likely will not be enough points there to make him worthy of his 7.7K price tag.
Winner: Neal
Te Edwards ($8,200) vs Dennis Bermudez ($8,000)
To start this off, I am avoiding this fight completely. Bermudez is making his UFC debut at lightweight after fighting featherweight since being promoted to the UFC. Bermudez is another fighter who likes to take fights to the mat and land a high number of strikes, however, in his last fight, he succeeded in 6 takedowns yet still lost the fight. This tells me while his strength is to take fighters to the mat, he struggles to score points once he gets there creating a frustrating fight in terms of fantasy points. I like Edwards more, however. Te Edwards has fought at this class more recently but has a limited career with only a 6-2 record. What I do like about Edwards is all 6 of his wins were by KO and his style is wrestling. This means he should have solid takedown defense countering the strength of his opponent. If he can stay on his feet and prevent Bermudez from taking the fight to the mat, he has great potential for an early finish and all the points that come along with it.
Winner: Edwards
Cory Sandhagen ($9,300) vs Mario Bautista ($6,900)
I like Cory Sandhagen even at this price tag. He has won his last 2 fights via KO and scored over 100 points in each of them. This dude is an all-around brawler. He has finished fights with body shots, knees, and ground and pound. The perfect fighter you want to score points and win you some cash. He is fighting Mario Bautista who is 6-0 making his UFC debut. He could make for a sneaky tournament play or cheap fill in because he is a submission specialist and is sneaky enough to squeeze out an early win. I think this is a slim chance and would not pick him unless you are either tight on salary or are looking for a low owner tournament play.
Winner Sandhagen
Alonzo Menifield ($9,100) vs Vinicius Moreira ($7,100)
This fight is interesting because it features 2 fighters both making their UFC debut. Starting with Moreira, he is a submission specialist and has won all but 1 of his nine matches via submission. This is rather uncommon in the light heavyweight division as most of these guys use their raw power for knockouts. It also makes him an interesting prospect because most light heavyweight fighters don’t face too many submission attempts in competition. He is facing the up and coming Alonzo Menifield. Menifield is mostly a power fighter but has won a match via submission. He also has never lost a match and has never had a fight go to decision. At 9.1K this is a very steep price tag, but maybe one worth paying since Menifield finishes fights. I like the prospect of Moreira, but I do not believe he will be able to defeat Menifield.
Winner Menifield
Joanne Calderwood ($7,400) vs Ariane Lipski ($8,800)
This is a huge fight for Lipski as it would cement her place in the UFC scene. She has won 9 fights in a row leading up to her UFC debut and is fighting the #10 fighter, Joanne Calderwood. I expect Lipski to win this fight and cement her place among the top 10, but Calderwood is a seasoned veteran who has many fights under her belt. Calderwood is on the wrong side of 30 and I believe we will begin to see her slide down the rankings as she is currently a gatekeeper fighting up and comers with a lot of hype coming into each fight.
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Winner Lipski
Alexander Hernandez ($8,600) vs Donald Cerrone ($7,600)
Donald Cerrone has been around the fight game for a while, coming into this fight with a 34-11 record. While some consider him another “gatekeeper” he is one of my favorite fighters to watch and one of my favorite DK plays as this dude is a brawler. He comes out to stop fights. With this comes some risk, but after all the trash talking done by Hernandes at the presser, this is looking like a fight when we see “Cowboy” at his best. Hernadez is an up and coming fighter and I think he will be near the top of this division eventually, but I think he may have bitten off more than he can chew with Cerrone. I may be wrong, but I am taking Cerrone as a riskier play with the great potential for 100+ points Saturday night.
Winner Ceronne
Glover Teixeira ($8,300) vs Karl Roberson ($7,900)
If you haven’t noticed a trend by now, I’m not sure what you’ve been looking at, another fight with a rising fighter and an aging fighter. Teixeira is 3-3 since last April winning every other fight. If he keeps this trend he will win Saturday night. For DraftKings purposes, I am choosing Teixeira because he has a higher ceiling due to his fight style. When he wins, he almost is always right around that 100 point mark, however, when losing he falls to the 20 point range making him a low floor/high ceiling play. Perfect for large tournaments. While Roberson has a great chance of winning this fight as a submission specialist he just isn’t the type of fighter to score points in bunches. the longer this fight lasts the harder it will be for Roberson to pull out a victory.
Winner Teixeira
Paige VanZant ($8,400) vs Rachael Ostovich ($7,800)
This will be VanZant’s second fight at the flyweight division after struggling to get down to strawweight. With this, her strength should be increased and her overall health improved as well. She also has a lot to prove in this fight as she feels like another loss could lead to her no longer being with the UFC. Ostovich, on the other hand, has a lot to prove as a newer fighter fighting against a big name like VanZant. With both fighters having a lot on the line, this should be a good fight. Neither fighter has been great on the UFC scene recently, but both of which are capable of capturing stardom. I think Ostovich wins, but I’m likely not using this fight in any of my lineups.
Winner Ostovich
Joseph Benavidez ($9,000) vs Dustin Ortiz ($7,200)
Benavidez is no joke as he beat Cejudo not too long ago. With his only losses coming against top fighters, he is nothing to scoff at. I expect him to dominate this fight, but the price tag is steep. Ortiz hasn’t had many big fights and I just don’t expect him to show up on Saturday either.
Winner Benavidez
Gregor Gillespie ($9,400) vs Yancy Medeiros ($6,800)
Gillespie is undefeated and looking to continue that streak. So far in all of his fights in the UFC, he has finished all 5 of his fights. I expect the same from this fight as Medeiros is coming back from being knocked out by Donald Cerrone. While Medeiros has been in more fights, I don’t think his experience will help enough to win this fight.
Winner Gillespie
Greg Hardy ($9,500) vs Allen Crowder ($6,700)
Crowder has one fight at the UFC level and he was knocked out in round 1 scoring only 7.5 points. Unfortunately for him, he faces Greg Hardy who is another knockout specialist. While this is Greg Hardy’s UFC debut, I believe he comes out and dominates this fight to let the world know that he’s in the UFC to stay.
Winner Hardy
TJ Dillashaw ($8,900) vs Henry Cejudo ($7,300)
Both of these guys currently hold a title belt and have earned it in dominating fashions. Cejudo recently won his defeating the longtime champion “Mighty Mouse” Johnson. Dillashaw won his belt after defeating Cody Garbrandt in dominating fashion in back to back fights. Cejudo is a great wrestler and will look to take this fight to the mat. If he controls this fight, there is a great chance neither fighter scores many points. Whereas if this fight stays vertical, then expect a high scoring bout with both fighters being potential assets in Draft Kings. Any time a fight has 5 round potential both fighters have a great shot at value. I’m taking Dillashaw to win this fight and his second belt.
Winner Dillashaw
MY Lineup ($50,000)
- Gregor Gillespie ($9,400)
- Rachael Ostovich ($7,800)
- Geoff Neal ($8,500)
- Henry Cejudo ($7,300)
- Donald Cerrone ($7,600)
- Cory Sandhagen ($9,300)
Tournament Lineup
- Ariane Lipski ($8,800)
- Vinicius Moreira ($7,100)
- Donald Cerrone ($7,600)
- Glover Teixeira ($8,300)
- Kyle Stewart ($8,700)
- Greg Hardy ($9,500) Really you can pick your favorite fighter here as Hardy is most expensive.
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