DFS MMA DraftKings: Fight Night Phoenix 2/17/19 (UFC)

Fight Night Phoenix is headlined by a heavyweight bout between Francis Ngannou and Cain Velasquez. The best part about heavyweight matches is they usually don’t go to decision. Velasquez is back after a 2.5-year break from the octagon and is fighting Ngannou who is a knockout threat that is ready to make himself a household name. The other high profile fight on this card is Jimmie Rivera vs Aljamain Sterling. These fighters come into Phoenix ranked #5 and #7 respectively at the bantamweight division. Both of these fighters frequently have their fights go to decision making this fight appear to be highly competitive.

$9,000+

Vicente Luque (9,400)

Vicente Luque comes as the highest price point on the fight card which in itself creates a risk. Picking Luque means you are betting on him to be the highest scoring fighter on this card because it will severely limit your next 5 fighters. This is one of the few times I am willing to take this risk, however, as Luque has broken 100 points in 6 of his last 7 fights. He finishes fights and is fighting a much lesser opponent.

Cain Velasquez ($9,000)

There are 5 fighter listed at $9,000 or above and Velasquez is easily my favorite. While he hasn’t fought in 2.5 years I was hoping he would come in at a little better value, Velasquez averages 113.5 points per fight and is set up in yet another match that could end in an early knockout. As long as he doesn’t get caught by one of Ngannou’s menacing blows, he should win this fight and possibly in dominant fashion.

$8,000-$8,900

Andrea Lee ($8,900)

Andrea Lee comes into this fight with a 9-2 record and averaging 97 points per fight. She is fighting Evans-Smith who has been somewhat underwhelming with a 6-3 record. She has also lost 2 out of her 3 fights in dominant fashion. Lee is on a 5 fight win streak and has won 3 of the 5 by finishing the fight. While Lee has only fought 1 fight at the UFC level she has shown talent and I believe will easily take care of her opponent.

Alexandra Albu ($8,600)

Alexandra Albu comes into this fight undefeated at 7-0. She is also averaging 96.5 points per fight making her a great fighter at this price point. Her biggest downfall is she hasn’t fought since July of 2017, however, she is fighting a favorable opponent in Emily Whitmire who is only 3-2 in her professional fighting career.

Scott Holtzman ($8,500)

Scott Holtzman is 12-2 as a professional fighter and is fighting Nik Lentz who has fought 40 professional fights. The only thing that worries me about this fight is how much experience Lentz has in the octagon. While this fighter is a little riskier in your lineup, he has broken the 100 point barrier in 4 of his last 5 fights.

Best of the Rest

Aljamain Sterling ($7,900)

While Sterling is listed as the underdog and is listed as only having a 70.6 point per fight average, he broke the 100 point threshold in each of his last 2 fights. Sterling is by no means a safe play as he has lows in the range of 30 points, but in my opinion, the reward is well worth the risk.

Nik Lentz ($7,700)

While I have already mentioned that I like his opponent Scott Holtzman, Lentz brings in the experience to win this fight and with that score some points Sunday night. He doesn’t carry a great reputation as a finisher, but when he does finish a fight he can post scores above 130 as he did vs Maynard and McBride. Look to include Lentz in your GPP lineups and maybe as a cheap play in your more expensive lineups as he comes in $600 below the average.

Francis Ngannou ($7,200)

Francis Ngannou is fighting an all-time great heavyweight in Cain Velasquez, but this guy has bricks for hands. Velasquez has been out of the fight game for almost 3 years and if Ngannou can rock him early he has a real chance to win this fight and break that 100 point barrier. This is a very high-risk play and should probably be saved for a tournament where you are shooting for a low owned fighter with a very high ceiling.

Bryan Barberena ($6,800)

Bryan Barberena is fighting a very talented fighter in Vicente Luque. Barberena though comes with knockout power and also the ability to win by submission. He is another fighter that should be saved for a tournament play as Luque is the heaviest favorite on this fight card.

Projected Winners

Winners in Bold*

1. Alexandra Albu vs Emily Whitmire
2. Luke Sanders vs Renan Barao
3. Jessica Penne vs Jodie Esquibel
4. Scott Holtzman vs Nick Lentz
5. Ashlee Evans-Smith vs Andrea Lee
6. Benito Lopez vs Manny Bermudez
7. Jimmie Rivera vs Aljamain Sterling
8. Andre Fili vs Myles Jury
9. Vicente Luque vs Bryan Barberena
10. Alex Caceres vs Kron Gracie
11. Cortney Casey vs Cynthia Calvillo
12. James Vick vs Paul Felder
13. Francis Ngannou vs Cain Velasquez

My Lineup

1. Vicente Luque ($9,400)
2. Cain Velasquez ($9,000)
3. Alexandra Albu ($8,600)
4. Aljamain Sterling ($7,900)
5. Nik Lentz ($7,700)
6. Andre Fili ($7,400)

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