With only five games on tonight’s slate, I didn’t think the spreadsheet would be worth doing. Instead, however, I’m going to revive an old format I used to use when I first started doing this. I always loved this format, it’s just hard to do it every night. I’ll try to do this whenever I have the time to actually sit down and write.
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NBA DFS Legend
|Nothing But Net||My top plays of the night at his position.|
|Dunk||A Dunk is a second or third tier player with the highest upside.|
|Half-Court Shot||Otherwise known as a “punt play.” A Low-priced, high-upside player.|
|Blocked Shot||A player I’ll be avoiding. Otherwise known as “Fading.”|
1. Point Guard
Nothing But Net | Eric Bledsoe $7,500 @ POR
The change of scenery for Bledsoe has been good for him and he seems to be coming into his own with the Bucks over the last few weeks. Six of his last eight games he has gone over 40 FanDuel points, including a game in which he only played 23 minutes. The Blazers actually look good “on paper” defending the point, but I’m not buying it, Damian Lillard is not a good defender.
Dunk | Kris Dunn $6,500 @ DEN
Rumor has it that the Bulls coaches wanted to see Dunn be more aggressive and told him as much leading up to their matchup with the Suns a few nights ago. If his play is any indication (47.8 FD pts) then he got the message loud and clear. Tonight he gets a matchup with a Nuggets team that ranks dead last in defending the point guard.
Half-Court Shot | Jerian Grant $4,400 @ DEN
The Nuggets are so bad against the point guard I decided to go with two Bulls. Grant doesn’t have the upside I normally look for in an H-CS, but on a night with only five games, he is the best cheap PG on the slate.
Blocked Shot | Ricky Rubio $5,500 @ LAC
Okay, so Rubio isn’t the normal top-to-mid-tier guy I like to use for my blocked shot, but his price has gotten so low that I can see people being tempted to roster to him. Don’t. The Clippers are top four in defending the point guard, and, where you used to be able to count on Rubio for 7-to-12 assists a game, he has only been averaging 3.8 over the last month.
2. Shooting Guard
Nothing But Net | Donovan Mitchell $6,800 @ LAC
As good as the Clippers are at defending the point, they are equally bad at defending the shooting guard. Mitchell’s price tag isn’t as appealing as it was a few weeks ago, but on a night with Lou Williams as the highest priced shooting guard, Mitchell is playable at 6.8k.
Dunk | Gary Harris $6,100 vs CHI
The Bulls give up 42.61 FanDuel points per game to shooting guards ranking them as the seventh worst team overall and the second worst on tonight’s slate — only the Clippers are worse tonight.
Half-Court Shot | Malcolm Brogdon $5,300 @ POR
Jason Kidd and his crazy rotations have killed Brogdon’s growth as a player. Last year’s ROY has been relegated to a bench role behind Tony Snell. Yes, Tony friggin’ Snell. Despite his inconsistent minutes, Brogdon has produced over his last three games going for 25 or more FanDuel points in each. Because he is coming off the bench, he will be their primary option with the second unit and he should flourish against the Blazers second unit.
Blocked Shot | Lou Williams $8,000 vs UTA
Williams is likely the biggest beneficiary of the Blake Griffin injury, but a combination of price and matchup has me fading him for this game. Even without Rudy Gobert, this Jazz team is good defensively, and I want no part of a lifetime sixth-man at $8,000, even if he does have 50-point upside.
3. Small Forward
Nothing But Net | Giannis Antetokounmpo $11,800 @ POR
I almost went with LeBron James here simply because I didn’t want to spell the Greek Freak’s full name, but I ultimately think the Freak is the better play. This game should have a much closer spread and the pace of this game will be higher than that of the Cavs/Hawks game. Honestly, you can’t go wrong either way with these two.
Dunk | Jaylen Brown $5,900 vs 76ers
No team is worse than the Sixers in defending the small forward spot. They give up 47.94 FanDuel points per game, a full two and a half points higher than the second worst team, the Brooklyn Nets.
Half-Court Shot | Juan Hernangomez $4,000 vs CHI
Wilson Chandler has already been ruled out of this game making Hernangomez an elite value play. He started and logged 28 minutes in his last game with no Chandler and he should see similar time in this one. At $4,000, on a five-game slate, you won’t get much better.
Blocked Shot | Robert Covington $6,200 @ BOS
The Celtics are a legit defensive team and Covington is too reliant on his three-pointers falling for him to hit value. He has too many single-digit scoring games for my taste. If you’re gonna pay up for SF, go all the way up to LBJ or ABC, not RoCo.
4. Power Forward
Nothing But Net | Ben Simmons $9,900 @ BOS
Simmons is the top play by default. He has the highest upside all the PFs, and quite frankly is head and shoulders a better play at PF than any other player on the slate.
Dunk | Dario Saric $5,500 @ BOS
The rule of thumb over the last year and a half has been if Joel Embiid sits, play Saric. Well, Embiid is expected to sit this game out, and the last time he did, Saric had 37.5 FanDuel points.
Half-Court Shot | Jonas Jerebko $4,000 @ LAC
Double check before lock that Jerebko will draw the start at PF, but if he does, he will be hard to pass up at $4,000. He has scored double-digit NBA points in three of his last five and can grab 5-to-8 rebounds a game.
Blocked Shot | Lauri Markkanen $6,800 @ DEN
He is priced too high for a guy that hasn’t broken 28 FanDuel points in four straight games. At $6,800, his 5x score would have to be 34 for him to hit cash game value. Possible? Yes. Likely? No.
Nothing But Net | Jusuf Nurkic $7,400 vs MIL
The Bucks’ frontcourt is long but extremely slender. They will not have a guy big enough in girth that can matchup with Nurkic on the block, and he will eat them alive.
Dunk | Al Horford $7,300 vs PHI
The Sixers have gotten better with their interior as the season has progressed, but with Embiid sitting out this game they will miss his shot blocking ability. Personally, I hate playing Horford but he is in a good spot tonight to roster him.
Half-Court Shot | None — Pay up
Blocked Shot | Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic
I only put them here cause I will likely be rostering either LeBron James or the Greek Freak, leaving me with very little salary cap space to roster one of these guys. Either one of them can go off for 60 though, so play them in your GPPs.