DFS NBA FanDuel Lineup 4/14/18
The time has finally come. The NBA Playoffs. No more late scratches. No more rest days. No more excuses.
I haven’t done an advice column for the NBA in some time because it became an exercise in futility when the guys I would feature would end up sitting out. I also stopped doing my NBA Spreadsheet for the same reason, wasted too much time to have the entire player pool landscape change when three or four guys get ruled out. I’m planning to do my spreadsheet again, but I’m waiting on the site I pull my stats from to finish their playoff updates. Once it is up, you can check it out here.
Today we have four games to look at to build our lineups. The biggest detractor to playoff DFS is there won’t be as many value plays as we are used to during the regular season. In fact, sometimes you will have to take a value just for the simple fact that he will actually get minutes, not because he has a good matchup.
For those that have never used the spreadsheet before, the best way to view it and to know when it has been released is to download the GoingFor2 App for iOS and Android. You can download it here. Without further ado, let’s kick off the playoffs right…
Point Guard
NBA DFS Legend
| Nothing But Net | My top plays of the night at his position. |
| Dunk | A Dunk is a second or third tier player with the highest upside. |
| Half-Court Shot | Otherwise known as a “punt play.” A Low-priced, high-upside player. |
| Blocked Shot | A player I’ll be avoiding. Otherwise known as “Fading.” |
Nothing But Net | Damian Lillard $9,800 vs NOP
I’m going to do my best to not just pick the highest priced player and call him my NBN player, but in this case, Lillard is the best of the best. I considered John Wall, but the matchup and pace of the Blazers and Pelicans give Lillard the edge. Over the last four weeks, the Pels have actually defended the point guard position quite well, but on the year they give up 46.94 Fanduel points, ranking them in the bottom half of the league. Lillard may see a lot of Jrue Holiday in this series, but with C.J. McCollum at the two, the Pels may opt to leave Holiday on McCollum. Holiday is one of the best on-ball defenders in the league and will make either guy work for everything, unfortunately, Rajon Rondo is no longer a great defender in this league and Lillard will go “Lillard” in Game 1.
Dunk | Rajon Rondo $6,100 @ POR
Speaking of the aforementioned Rondo, he is my “Dunk of the Night” at the point. When the Pels were fighting for a playoff spot to end the season, Rondo stepped up to the challenge and averaged over 13 assists per game over their last three games, including 14 against the Spurs in their season finale. Rondo proved last year for the Bulls that he can still show up big in the playoffs, averaging 11.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, 10 assists and 3.5 steals per game before getting hurt, limiting him to only two games. Some believe the Bulls could have actually won that series had Rondo not gotten hurt. The Blazers are a tough matchup for Rondo, but it’s his ability to score fantasy points without the need to score NBA points is what draws me to him. He could go out and score 4 NBA points and still have 40 FanDuel points.
Half-Court Shot | Tony Parker $3,500 @ GSW
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The days of vintage Tony Parker are long gone, but head coach Greg Popovich doesn’t rest these guys all season because he cares about how their knees will hold up when they are 45 and retired. No, he rests them for the playoffs, and despite the emergence of Dejounte Murray, Parker will still get a decent amount of minutes, especially if Murray struggles early. The Warriors have not been as good defensively down the stretch as a whole, and they were never good at defending the point guard when they were playing well. The Warriors have given up 45.91 FanDuel points to opposing point guards over the last four weeks, which isn’t terrible, but it’s not great either.
Blocked Shot | Kyle Lowry $6,800 vs WAS
On my podcast The Armchair Fantasy show on Thursday night, my guest Brandon pointed out that the Raptors have dropped Game 1 of the playoffs every year in the history of the franchise except one — way back in 2001. Well, I took that stat one step further and tried to look at their recent history to find out why they can never win Game 1. My conclusion? Kyle Lowry. Yep, I’m going to put it solely on his shoulders. Look at the last three seasons of Game 1s for Lowry:
Game 1 2017 vs MIL – Four points, two rebounds, six assists and four fouls
Game 1 2016 vs IND – 11 points, two rebounds, seven assists, six turnovers and five fouls
Game 1 2015 vs WAS – Seven points, eight rebounds, four assists, three turnovers and he fouled out
Once is chance, twice is coincidence, third time is a pattern…
Honorable Mentions: Ian Clark $4,000, Dejounte Murray $6,300
Shooting Guard
NBA DFS Legend
| Nothing But Net | My top plays of the night at his position. |
| Dunk | A Dunk is a second or third tier player with the highest upside. |
| Half-Court Shot | Otherwise known as a “punt play.” A Low-priced, high-upside player. |
| Blocked Shot | A player I’ll be avoiding. Otherwise known as “Fading.” |
Nothing But Net | DeMar DeRozan $7,000 vs WAS
DeRozan hasn’t had the same issues with Game 1s as Lowry, in fact, last year’s game one he was downright dominant putting up 27 points and eight rebounds. Over the last four weeks, only the Clippers, Hornets and Bulls were worse than the Wizards at points allowed to shooting guards. I don’t need to tell you, but those three teams aren’t in the playoffs, making the Wizards the worst team over the last four weeks for teams still playing for something.
Dunk | Dwyane Wade $4,400 @ PHI
Wade has more playoff experience in his pinky then does the entire Sixers team added together. Yes, he is older. Yes, he is slower. And yes, he is coming off the bench, but expect him to be the one on the court in the fourth quarter if this game is close, and he will likely log more minutes in Game 1 then he has all season as a member the Heat on his second stint. The Sixers are no slouches when it comes to defending the shooting guard, but at $4,400, Wade is my favorite mid-tier guard.
Half-Court Shot | Wayne Ellington $3,700 @ PHI
Ellington set an NBA record this season for the most 3-pointers off the bench. That record has stood for 12 long…months, Eric Gordon held the record after last season. Jokes aside, the point is he shoots a ton of threes, and if he can get hot, he will more then justify his $3,700 price tag. He only averaged around 23 minutes per game though, and if he misses his first few threes, head coach Erik Spoelstra may pull him early because he isn’t good for much else, making him a GPP option only.
Blocked Shot | C.J. McCollum $7,000 vs NOP
As I mentioned earlier, Jrue Holiday is likely to be defending McCollum, and as one of the best on-ball defenders in the league, Holiday will make McCollum’s night a difficult one. The last time these teams met, Holiday held McCollum to seven NBA points.
Honorable Mentions: Jrue Holiday $8,700, Danny Green $3,800
Small Forward
NBA DFS Legend
| Nothing But Net | My top plays of the night at his position. |
| Dunk | A Dunk is a second or third tier player with the highest upside. |
| Half-Court Shot | Otherwise known as a “punt play.” A Low-priced, high-upside player. |
| Blocked Shot | A player I’ll be avoiding. Otherwise known as “Fading.” |
Nothing But Net | Kevin Durant $10,900 vs SAS
I’m not even going to bother wasting time defending this pick. The next “best” small forward on this slate in terms of price is Robert Covington. Durant is the only top-tier small forward tonight.
Dunk | Rudy Gay $5,500 @ GSW
Gay is the closest Robin to LaMarcus Aldridge’s Batman that the Spurs have. He was their second leading scorer down the stretch despite coming off the bench and he averaged over five rebounds per game this season. At a position where everyone is likely to pay up for Durant, Gay’s price tag will make a good salary balancer as your second small forward. Over the last four weeks, only four teams were worse than the Warriors as they gave up 45.49 FanDuel points per game to the position.
Half-Court Shot | Darius Miller $3,500 @ POR
As a Pels fan, this is my homer pick. Miller is a 3-point specialist off the bench for the Pels. He averaged more than 25 minutes per game over the Pels last nine games — nine games that mine as well have been playoff games with their season in jeopardy. The Blazers are a very good defensive team, but they will have their hands full with Anthony Davis which could lead to some open shots for Miller.
Blocked Shot | Otto Porter $5,900 @ TOR
Porter was injured in the second to last game of the season and his availability for Game 1 is still in question, but even if he plays I wouldn’t want him in my lineup. He will be less than 100 percent and will be guarded by dark horse candidate defensive player of the year Kevin Durant. No thanks.
Honorable Mentions: None
Power Forward
NBA DFS Legend
| Nothing But Net | My top plays of the night at his position. |
| Dunk | A Dunk is a second or third tier player with the highest upside. |
| Half-Court Shot | Otherwise known as a “punt play.” A Low-priced, high-upside player. |
| Blocked Shot | A player I’ll be avoiding. Otherwise known as “Fading.” |
Nothing But Net | LaMarcus Aldridge $10,200 @ GSW
I have yet to try to build a roster, but I would suspect that trying to fit in Anthony Davis is going to be very difficult, which is why I’m putting LMA here. No, he doesn’t have the ridiculous upside of Davis, but if I can save over $2k and get 55 FanDuel points, I’ll be okay with that. LMA dropped 56 on the Warriors the last time they played and I could see that happening again here.
Dunk | Draymond Green $7,000 vs SAS
I really wanted to put Nikola Mirotic here, but not because I thought he was the better play, but because I wanted to ask the question, could New Orleans be any more perfect for Mirotic? I mean, his name literally has NOLA in it, NikOLA.
Okay, back to Green. He is way underpriced at $7,000. His has a ton of upside at that price point and his floor may be the highest of any player outside of Anthony Davis. He is going to give you 30 FanDuel points at minimum, but he could get a triple-double and put up 55 FanDuel points as well.
Half-Court Shot | Pascal Siakam $4,100 vs WAS
There isn’t really any value that I truly love at this position, but forced to choose I’d take Siakam. He is one of those players that is just constantly active the entire time he is on the court and could easily have 12 points and 5 rebounds — with an assist a steal and a block thrown in for good measure.
Blocked Shot | None. I mean Davis will be hard to fit in, but I’m not going to tell you to fade him.
Honorable Mentions: Nikola Mirotic $7,700, Amir Johnson $4,100
Center
NBA DFS Legend
| Nothing But Net | My top plays of the night at his position. |
| Dunk | A Dunk is a second or third tier player with the highest upside. |
| Half-Court Shot | Otherwise known as a “punt play.” A Low-priced, high-upside player. |
| Blocked Shot | A player I’ll be avoiding. Otherwise known as “Fading.” |
Nothing But Net | Jusuf Nurkic $8,000 vs NOP
With Joel Embiid out, Nurkic is the best of a very shallow group of centers and he gets the top spot by default.
Dunk | Jonas Valanciunas $6,200 vs WAS
He really came on strong to end the season and the Wizards are one of the few teams that still have a true center, so JVal isn’t forced to the bench for matchup purposes.
Half-Court Shot | Richaun Holmes $4,500 vs MIA
With Embiid out, Holmes will pick up extra minutes, and while I wish his price was a little cheaper, if you’re looking for value at center, he is your best option.
Blocked Shot | Hassan Whiteside $7,000 @ PHI
With Embiid out, I just realized that would have been the third time I started my analysis with, “with Embiid out”. Let’s just say this, Whiteside could be a victim of matchups if the Sixers decide to play small ball, and Erik Spoelstra has shown he isn’t opposed to sitting his center on the bench if the matchup dictates.
Honorable Mentions: Pau Gasol $5,000
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