The spreadsheet has returned! I know a lot of you inquired why I stopped the spreadsheet towards the end of the season. The short answer? Because it had become useless. The long answer. The spreadsheet weighs heavily on usage and a player’s production over his last five games, but with all the players resting or playing limited minutes it was impossible to keep the sheet accurate.

Now that the playoffs have started, we know that we won’t have any “resting” players going forward so that should help us make better decisions with our lineups. No more asking yourself, “Who is the third string PG from the Utah Jazz?”. Now we can concentrate on the stars and play them with confidence.

There will be one small change to the spreadsheet until the third or fourth game of the playoffs. I’ll be using season averages for some of the metrics, where during the regular season I was using “last five games”. I’m doing this to hopefully get a more accurate read on what to expect, and also to avoid having guys graded high because they were getting a ton of minutes towards the end of the season. Once we get a better sample size of the NBA Playoffs under our belt, I’ll go back to the more accurate “last five games” averages.

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Here is today’s spreadsheet…

DFS NBA FanDuel Lineup Spreadsheet 4/15/17

What I See….

“BEST” 

The first thing that stood out to me was that there was no one with a “Best” grade on this slate. DeMar DeRozan is the closest at a 34.4 grade, but this may be the first time all year there hasn’t been at least one “best” player. DeDe was actually graded a “best” until I put in the Vegas lines, but the 199.5 over/under brought his grade down.

Rodney Hood $4,000

He is the top “value” according to the sheet, but I’m not buying it. In his last two games, he boasted over 30 percent in usage rate, something he had done only four other times all year. That usage rate is what is helping his grade be this high but is an unstainable rate on a team where he is, at best, the fourth option.

Serge Ibaka $5,300

If we ignore Hood as the top value, Ibaka is next in line for value, and his “value” designation I am buying. He has a 19 percent usage rate, and while some of that is due to Kyle Lowry being out for so long, I think having Lowry will help Ibaka with his efficiency. At $5,300, he is a great value piece to help you stack some studs.

Deron Williams $4,000

Not buying him either.

Mike Conley $7,200

Conley is the highest graded PG on the slate today, and I 100 percent agree with this assessment. With the exception of George Hill, most of the point guards in the playoffs benefit from a high pace of play, and their production suffers when they play slower-paced teams. Conley, on the other hand, is not affected by a slow pace of play because all of his averages are already based on a slow pace, since that is how the Grizzlies play.

Shooting Guard

The SG position tonight is a black hole. I wish we could turn SG into a flex position for this slate because you are either going to pay up for DeDe or Giannis Antetokounmpo, or you are going to punt the position. Neither of those two top players has played particularly well in their matchups this year, with the Alphabet having a slight advantage in that department. I think I’ll be saving the money by using DeDe over the Alphabet and punting my second SG spot.

Small Forward

Picking this position right will be the difference between winning and losing. The quintet of LeBron James, Gordon Hayward, Kawhi Leonard, and Paul George are “usage monsters”, and figure to see an uptick in that category in the playoffs. I’m currently leaning in favor of LBJ and PG13 stack because historically these guys bring out the best in each other and this game has by far the highest over/under of any of the games on this slate. Don’t go cheap at this position. Khris Middleton would be as low as I would go, after that, they are all too volatile.

Blake Griffin $8,200

Griffin is the highest graded power forward, but there is no way in hell I’ll be playing him. He has struggled mightily against the Jazz over the last two years averaging only 39.7 FanDuel points, which is inflated by a 51 point game this year — a game in which Chris Paul did not play leaving Griffin to have a 29 percent usage rate, his season average is in the low 20s.

Kevin Love $8,300

I think I’ll be pairing Ibaka with either Kevin Love or Zach Randolph, both of which I really like on this slate. Love is the only top-tier power forward with any matchup” thumbs ups”, of which there are very few thumbs at all on this slate, in fact, there are zero “two” or “three” thumbs ups at all.

The Gasol Brothers

These two have historically struggled when they play one another, and this year was no different. They were both well below their season averages when they played each other this season. I think I’ll be looking at the high-upside/high-risk guys like Tristan Thompson and Jonas Valanciunas with a little Myles Turner mixed in.

HOT

The “Hot” tag is pretty sparse on this slate because the grades are based on their season averages, not their “last five games” like I did during the regular season. As the playoffs progress, you will start to see more players with the “hot” tag.

That’s all I got for tonight. I’d recommend going light in the playoffs to start off until we start to see some trends. It is too hard to predict what the coaches will do in each of these series. Good Luck!

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