Week 2 was not a good week for my column. After a great Week 1 with 80 percent of my picks having great days, my Week 2 picks missed more than they hit. Unfortunately, it happens, but instead of crying over spilled milk, I’ll just buy a damn cow.
On to Week 3 we go…
| Explosive Play | My top play for the position |
| Deep Threat | A deep threat is a second or third tier player that will outperform their price on FanDuel/DraftKings. |
| Hail Mary | Also know as a punt, a Hail Mary is a cheap, low-owned player with a ton of upside. Great for GPP's. |
| Missed Tackle | A missed tackle is a first or second tier player that I’ll be fading in my contests. |
*note* Prices are based on FanDuel, but most plays will crossover to DraftKings as well
Quarterbacks
Explosive Play |Â Matt Ryan (ATL) @ NO $8,500
You wanna guess which defense is giving up the most fantasy points to opposing QBs? Yeah, that was an easy one, the Saints are of course. Matt Ryan is coming off a monster game in which he threw for 396 yards and three TDs. Through two games of the season, he is second in total passing yards and has five touchdowns and only one interception. Easily the top cash game QB.
Deep Threat | Philip Rivers (SD) @ IND $8,000
The Colts aren’t too far behind the Saints in points allowed to opposing QBs and the San Diego Chargers love to throw the football. A lot of Rivers’ weapons have been lost for the season with both Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead on IR, but he still has enough talent on the team to be a top QB in this game.
Hail Mary |Â Ryan Tannehill (MIA) vs CLE $7,400
Don’t look now, but Tannehill is currently a top ten QB in fantasy right now averaging over 20 FanDuel points per game. I was really high on Tannehill last year because of what I thought was a high floor due to his rushing numbers. Instead, he barely ran at all in 2015 ending the season with a mere 141 yards rushing. This year he is back to running and his 52 rushing yards through two weeks ranks him third behind only Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert, but I think I buried the lede…
He is playing the Cleveland Browns. I should have saved my research time and just said that.
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Missed Tackle | Russell Wilson (SEA) vs SF $8,700
Whenever you roster Wilson you are expecting him to have decent rushing numbers to give him that high floor we all like, unfortunately, he has a high-ankle sprain that has limited him in the first two weeks. I’m avoiding him until I start to see him move around again.
Others I like: Drew Brees $9,000, Ben Roethlisberger $8,400
Running Backs
Explosive Play | David Johnson (ARI) @ BUF $8,400
Normally if a guy puts up 152 total yards in a game, good things are said about him. Not the case for Johnson who got called out by his coach to the media for bad route running and miscues throughout the game. Expect Johnson to be more focused this week and put up huge numbers against a defense that ranks 24th in run defense and 30th overall. David Johnson is a younger version of Matt Forte who just had three touchdowns and over 100 total yards against the Bills last week.
Deep Threat | Melvin Gordon (SD) @ IND $7,100
Gordon will probably be the highest owned RB on the slate this week. A perfect combination of price ($7,100), opportunity (Danny Woodhead on IR), and matchup (Colts 27th against the run) make him a must-start in your cash games.
Hail Mary | Kenyan Drake (MIA) vs CLE $5,900
Arian Foster has been ruled out for Sunday leaving Jay Ajayi as the projected starter. The Dolphins have made it abundantly clear they do not think Ajayi is a starting caliber RB, so expect him to be on a short leash. If he struggles early, Drake could end up with more touches and against this Browns defense, he may even find the end zone.
Missed Tackle | Â Todd Gurley (LA) @ TB $8,300
Gurley is probably still a good GPP option because his ownership will be extremely low after the way his first two weeks have gone, but personally, I will be fading him in all my lineups. The Buccaneers are capable of putting up some points even with Doug Martin ruled out and if they jump out to an early lead it could limit Gurley’s chances.
Others I like: DeAngelo Williams $8,800, *Christine Michael $6,900, +Jordan Howard $5,300
* DraftKings Only
+ GPP Only
Wide Receivers
Explosive Play | Julio Jones (ATL) @ NO $9,300
Despite being listed as questionable, it looks like Jones will play on Monday, and he may have the best “on paper” matchup for the entire weekend. We have already discussed how bad the Saints defense is and being on Monday night, where it seems the stars shine the brightest, Jones will have a field day.
Deep Threat | Mike Evans (TB) vs LA $8,000
With 24 targets on the year, Evans is a true target monster and even added a TD in each of his games through Week 2 — one shy of what he caught all of last season! I wrote in the preseason that I thought Mike Evans was in for a huge year, and even though he hasn’t had one of those ridiculous breakout games yet, it is coming, and it might be this weekend. The Rams are traveling from L.A. to Tampa Bay so the 1pm start time may affect them, and Evans will take advantage.
Hail Mary | Phillip Dorsett (IND) vs SD $6,000
Donte Moncrief is out for 4-to-6 weeks and leaves plenty of targets on the table as he was getting more targets than T.Y. Hilton through two weeks. Dorsett was a first-round pick a few years ago and now he will get his chance to shine in this high-powered Colts offense.
The Chargers defense is actually pretty good despite the perception to the contrary. They are the fifth best team in points allowed to opposing WRs, but anytime you have a team like the Colts that’ll pass it 40-plus times a game, their WRs will get enough targets to be fantasy relevant. At $6,000, Dorsett won’t break the bank and I can easily see him scoring a TD in this game.
Missed Tackle | Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG) vs WAS $8,900
The rumor is that Josh Norman is going to shadow OBJ on Sunday, even if Norman himself says he didn’t “get the memo.” But, Norman’s cover skills are not the reason I’m avoiding OBJ this week, but rather his ability to get inside the head of Mr. Beckham. A beat reporter had a story about the Giants bringing in OBJ’s college wide receiver coach to “keep his head in the game” and maintain his “mental concentration” for this game. That tells me even the Giants are worried about Norman, and as a DFS player, you should be as well.
Others I like: Brandin Cooks $8,100, Allen Robinson $7,900, Jarvis Landry $7,000
Tight Ends
Explosive Play | Delanie Walker (TEN) vs OAK $6,900Â Jordan Reed (WAS) @ (NYG) $7,500
Reed averaged 7 catches and 97 yards in two games against the Giants last year, the only thing missing from his resume was a TD. With the Redskins in danger of starting the season 0-3, they will go to their talented tight end early and often. Only the Saints are worse than the Giants in terms of points allowed to tight ends this year. He will score at least one TD this week and have over 100 yards.
Deep Threat | Â Dwayne Allen (IND) vs SD $6,100
With T.Y. Hilton and Phillip Dorsett both listed at 5-foot-10 and 6-foot-2 Donte Moncrief out for this game, the 6-foot-3 Dwayne Allen becomes the Colts biggest “goal-to-go” receiver on the field. Andrew Luck has always looked Allen’s way in the red zone and now he will be targeting him even more when they get inside the 10-yard-line.
Hail Mary | Dennis Pita (BAL) @ JAC $5,000
A lot of people were on Dennis Pita early in the week as their value TE but have since moved on to Hunter Henry of the Chargers because Antonio Gates is doubtful. I’m not one of those people. Tight end is traditionally one of the most difficult positions to transition to from college to the pros, and to think Henry is going to step in and do it in Week 3 of his rookie season is asking too much.
I’ll take Pitta’s 16 targets through two weeks, and his chemistry with Joe Flacco, over a rookie TE making his first NFL start every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
Missed Tackle | None
Others I like: Jacob Tamme $5,500
Defense
Explosive Play | Arizona Cardinals @ Bills $5,100
After a rough outing against the Patriots, the Cardinals took care of business against Tampa Bay. The trip cross-country worries me some, but I still see the Cardinals forcing at least two turnovers.
Deep Threat | Miami Dolphins @ Browns $4,600
The Dolphins are the chalky of chalk plays this week. I’m not even going to analyze this one. If you don’t know why you should be playing the Dolphins, save your money and stop playing DFS.
Hail Mary | San Francisco 49ers @ Seahawks
Maybe this is me being a fan, but the 49ers defense hasn’t looked horrible over the first few weeks. Yes, the Panthers dropped 47 points on them, but the 49ers defense still had seven fantasy points. Normally a team giving up that many points will put you in the negative numbers.
The Seahawks on-the-other-hand haven’t looked very good offensively and Russell Wilson is dealing with a high ankle sprain. Couple that with poor offensive line play by Seattle and the Niners could be looking at a pretty decent fantasy day.
Missed Tackle | None
Others I like: Pittsburg Steelers @ Eagles
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