Week 5 was a much better week for me. My picks were actually ranked as the No. 3 expert on DailyOverlay.com, a site that has a grading system for DFS advice experts. I’m hoping to keep the momentum going this week, let’s jump into Week 6…

*Prices are based on FanDuel, but most plays will crossover to DraftKings as well

**Main Slate (Sunday Only)

Quarterbacks

Explosive Play | Drew Brees vs CAR $8,500

Okay, so I’m picking the low-hanging fruit on this one, but can you blame me? Brees will be at home against a Panthers team that hasn’t shown they can stop the pass yet this season and they haven’t been able to generate much of a pass rush either. He put up nearly 24 FanDuel points on them last year, and the Panthers were actually good on defense in 2015.

Deep Threat | Blake Bortles @ CHI $7,800

If you’re looking for a guy with high upside that will be lower owned than Brees, than Bortles is probably your guy. He had a really nice game two weeks ago in London, and is now coming off a bye week. He should be well rested and ready to pick up where he left off. Surprisingly, he has played better on the road this season than he has at home averaging a little over 20 FanDuel points on the road but only 15 at home (I’m including the London game as a road game, though technically it’s a home game). The Jaguars have been a disappointment thus far and currently sit at 1-and-3, so this game will go a long way to helping them get back on track. Look for a lot of Bortles to Allen Robinson this week.

Hail Mary |  Alex Smith @ OAK $6,800

I’ve done these articles for three years now, and I don’t think Alex Smith has ever made the cut, so why now? Easy.

1. The Oakland Raiders allow the second most fantasy points to opposing QBs at 23.48.
2. At his price tag, he is the fourth cheapest QB on the slate, only Colin Kaepernick, Cody Kessler, and Case Keenum are cheaper.
3. He only needs 13.5 FanDuel points to hit value, and in two games against the Raiders last year he averaged 21.6 — including a 24.7 point game in Oakland.

Missed Tackle | Ben Roethlisberger @ MIA $8,700

I already wrote a piece on why you should fade Big Ben in Week 6 on FantasyPros.com and I posted a similar stat last week on why you should play him, so I’m just going to copy/paste an excerpt here…

Take a look at the following two QBs’ touchdown to interception ratio from 2014 through Week 5 of this year;

• Quarterback A: 17 TDs/ 16 INTs
• Quarterback B: 51 TDs/ 13 INTs

Obviously, if we are picking one of those guys to fade in DFS surely we would fade quarterback A, right? What if I told you quarterback A was Ben Roethlisberger?

“Say what!?”

Okay, it was a trick question. They are both Roethlisberger. Quarterback A are his  numbers on the road over the last two-plus years and Quarterback B are his home numbers. Pretty astounding splits and something that can’t be ignored regardless of how well he is playing right now. He is on the road this week and at his price tag, there are better options.

Others I like: Russell Wilson $8,400

Running Backs

Explosive Play | LeSean McCoy vs SF $8,200

I actually like all three of the top RBs on this week’s slate, but I decided to go with McCoy because his price tag is lower than the other two. The narrative here is that this is a revenge game for McCoy with his old coach Chip Kelly on the other side, but even if we take that out, the number of touches McCoy is going to get against this very soft run defense is why he makes the cut. I’ve said before that McCoy and David Johnson are similar backs, did anyone see what Johnson did to the 49ers last week? Enough said.

Deep Threat | Christine Michael vs ATL $7,400

Honestly, I think this is a “pay-up” week for RBs, but Michael makes an interesting play coming out of the bye week, in a matchup with the Falcons who are ranked in the bottom five of points allowed to opposing RBs. He has received no less than 18 carries over his last two games and has averaged five targets for the season, some quick math tells me you can expect about 23 opportunities for him, at $7,400 you love that.

Hail Mary | **Giovani Bernard @ NE $5,700

The caveat here is Jeremy Hill. If he sits this game out and Bernard gets 80 percent of the workload out of the backfield, at his price he is a near must-start. Now, don’t get me wrong, he could make a good play even of Hill does play with the Bengals likely in catchup mode and he being the preferred option in the passing game, but if Hill sits I LOVE me some Gio.

Missed Tackle |  Carlos Hyde @ BUF $7,300

Hyde has been one of the bigger surprises of the season for me. He has faced more eight-man fronts than every other back not named Todd Gurley, yet is the league’s eighth-leading rusher and tied for the league lead with six touchdowns. He won’t be able to continue that pace this week.

**if Jeremy Hill is ruled out

Others I like: Le’Veon Bell $9,300, DeMarco Murray $8,800, Jordan Howard $7,700

Wide Receivers

Explosive Play | Allen Robinson @ CHI $8,600

Robinson has had a quiet start to the season after some pretty high expectations, but he is now coming off a bye week and gets the Bears defense. The Bears have actually played decently against the pass but haven’t faced any top passing offenses outside of the Colts last week, where they gave up 171 yards and a TD to T.Y. Hilton. Robinson will have his 2016 coming out party on Sunday.

Deep Threat | Jarvis Landry vs PIT $6,900

Last week marks the first time all season that Landry did not receive at least 10 targets, and I think that bad game will lead to him being low-owned. The Steelers pass defense is not very good, ranking 30th in the NFL, and I expect the Dolphins to be playing from behind for much of this game — leading to more passes in catchup mode. Landry could get a season high in targets this week, I’m setting the over/under at 13 and I’ll take the over.

Hail Mary | Michael Thomas vs CAR $5,400

I was torn between Thomas and Cameron Meredith, but I ultimately went with Thomas because he has the better QB, is playing in the higher scoring game, and will be lower owned. Thomas has led the team in targets the last two weeks (before their bye) and has a receiving TD in each of his last two games. The Panthers have shown they have trouble against the pass and no one passes more than the Saints do at home.

Missed Tackle | Julio Jones @ SEA $8,500

Richard Sherman is expected to shadow Jones — that is all.

Others I like: Jordy Nelson $8,300, Willie Snead $7,000, Jeremy Maclin $6,900, Cameron Meredith $5,400, **Alshon Jeffery $7,600 

**Contrarian GPP play only

Tight Ends

Explosive Play |  Jimmy Graham vs ATL $6,900

The Falcons were dead last in the league in points allowed to tight ends going into last week, they come into this week ranked third worst, but only because last week’s opponent , the Denver Broncos, do not have a pass catching tight end (Virgil Green did not play). It’s not because they are suddenly able to defend the position.

Deep Threat |  Zach Miller vs JAC $5,800

I think this is the week to pay up at tight end, but to give you some cheaper options, Miller could be a good player to target. He has received at least eight targets  in two of the last three games and has three TDs in that span. The Jags statistically look good against the tight end, but I think it’s more the level of their competition than good defense.

Hail Mary | Zach Ertz @ WAS $5,400

If you’re looking for a low-owned tight end, look no further than Ertz. Recency bias will ensure low ownership because he only had three targets last week, but another week under his belt after coming back from an injury, I expect him to see a healthy dose of targets against this weak Redskins defense.

Missed Tackle | Jordan Reed vs PHI $7,500

I was going to put Reed here, but now he isn’t expected to play, so I’m not putting any of the top-tier tight ends here. I think they all have a chance to be good this week. If Reed does play, don’t use him.

Others I like: Delanie Walker $6,700, Travis Kelce $6,400, Greg Olsen $8,100

Defense

Explosive Play | Buffalo Bills vs SF $4,800

The 49ers are flying across the country for a 1pm east coast game, which is not something they are good at doing, and Colin Kaepernick is getting his first start of the season. This will not end well for the 49ers.

Deep Threat |  LA Rams @ DET $4,600

The Lions haven’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard as they were expected to going into the season. They can’t run the ball and the Rams are good at getting to the QB. That’s a recipe for disaster if you are a Lions fan.

Hail Mary | None- pay up

Missed Tackle | Carolina Panthers @ NO $4,700

Why are they still priced this high?

Others I like: Titans $4,700

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