Disclaimer: the Top Stacks Report will be a weekly article highlighting my favorite correlated stacks of the week on both Draftkings and Fanduel. I will be using Draftkings pricing in the headers. Unless one site is specified, I like the stack for both. I apologize if this article is shorter than usual, with Thanksgiving I had less time to write.
Let’s dive into Week 12…
Jacoby Brissett ($5,400), T.Y. Hilton ($6,700), and Corey Davis ($4,900)
With the 5th highest total on the week at 45.5, this game could be a sneaky shootout. This matchup features the #26 and #27 pass defenses by Football Outsiders’ DVOA, and not as terrible run defenses of #17 and #19. In tournaments I will be stacking this game with both quarterbacks, but I prefer Jacoby Brissett due to the $900 discount on both Draftkings and Fanduel. The Titans have given up 250+ yards and multiple touchdown passes each of the past 3 games. T.Y. Hilton gets a matchup with a secondary giving up the 5th most fantasy points to opposing receivers while being at home on the turf (he has severe home/road splits). Not that any of the Titans corners are good enough to cover Hilton, he does line up all over the field and will be able to exploit all the corners. On the Titans’ side of the ball, Rishard Matthews did not practice on Friday and I am expecting him not to go on Sunday. Corey Davis has 22 targets in his past 3 weeks since returning from injury, 2nd on the team to only Delanie Walker‘s 23 over that span. Davis is a special talent that is going to have his breakout game sooner rather than later, and what better matchup that the Colts secondary? This stack is cash viable, but don’t get carried away with exposure to the Colts in cash games.
Russell Wilson ($7,000), Jimmy Graham ($5,800), and Carlos Hyde ($5,500)
It’s always upsetting when Russell Wilson goes bananas on prime time and I can’t play him on the main slate, but we go right back to the well this week. The Niners’ 30th ranked pass defense that has allowed the 4th most fantasy points to the quarterback position this season is an ideal matchup. With Wilson, you also get the #1 running back on the Seahawks which just increases his floor and ceiling. My favorite stacking partner this week is NOT Doug Baldwin for a change, although I still like him quite a bit. Jimmy Graham is back to being the Graham of old, scoring 7 touchdowns in his past 6 games. Since the team’s Week 6 bye, Graham leads all tight ends in PPR fantasy points with 82.8 and he’s still priced at a large discount from Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, and Zach Ertz on Draftkings (not so much on Fanduel). Even though the Seahawks will be without Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, and Shaquill Griffin at corner, I don’t love any Niners receivers. Marquise Goodwin is in play, but with his limited volume, he’s going to need to break a big play. With Earl Thomas back there, you can never bank on it. Since C.J. Beathard took over, Carlos Hyde leads the team with 19% of the team’s targets. In a game we can expect the Niners to be trailing as 6.5-point underdogs, Hyde should be in for 7+ targets along with his 12+ carries. This stack is cash viable.
Paxton Lynch ($4,400) and Emmanuel Sanders ($5,200)
Here’s my gross but cheap stack of the week: Paxton Lynch and Emmanuel Sanders. Lynch is most likely not ready to be a starter in the NFL, but he does get a dream matchup with the #32 pass defense by DVOA in the Raiders. The Raiders don’t have an interception this season…just let that sink in. It’s Week 12. People will want to treat this game like Nathan Peterman last week and play the Raiders defense, but I strongly advise against it. Unlike the Chargers, the Raiders defense is very very very bad. The Raiders have given up 300 yards and 3 touchdowns to 3 of the past 4 quarterbacks faced. I’m not expecting that from Lynch, but at $4,400, you don’t need much. I think you can pair him with either Emmanuel Sanders or Demaryius Thomas, but I chose the cheaper one for this stack. In a limited sample, Sanders has 35% of Lynch’s targets compared to 25% for Thomas. This stack is for large field tournaments only.
Tom Brady ($7,700), Rex Burkhead ($4,300), Brandin Cooks ($7,100), and Jarvis Landry ($6,800)
The Patriots are 16.5-point home favorites projected to score 32 points. You want Patriots exposure, but that’s a weekly thing. The Dolphins rank 15th in run defense by DVOA compared to 30th in pass defense: expect a lot of Tom Brady for 3 quarters until Brian Hoyer comes in for cleanup duty in the 4th. After Rex Burkhead flopped as the chalk last week, I want to go right back to him at a fraction of the ownership. He fumbled early in the game, and Bill Belichick has a zero tolerance policy when it comes to fumbling. Burkhead still had 6 targets, however, and leads the backfield with 17 targets since returning from injury in Week 7. Still only $4,300 on Draftkings, Burkhead is a great tournament pairing with Brady. Brandin Cooks torched the Raiders, as expected. This week he gets another great matchup with Xavien Howard and a Dolphins secondary ranking 25th in explosive pass play rate, per Sharp Football Stats. Since Chris Hogan’s injury, Cooks leads to team with 27% of targets and 54% of air yards (AirYards.com). On the other side, people will gravitate towards Kenny Stills with Matt Moore at QB. I think Jarvis Landry is one of the best plays on the week. He’s relatively expensive on both sites, but has seen double digit targets and scored a touchdown in 7 of his last 8 games. This stack minus Burkhead is cash viable.
Stack of The Week
Jared Goff ($6,700), Todd Gurley ($8,800), Sammy Watkins ($4,800), and Alvin Kamara ($7,800)
Jared Goff has become a play for me every week in tournaments, because he’s shown us his ceiling (over 29 points twice) and is never highly owned; Goff’s ownership in the Draftkings’ Millionaire Maker has exceeded 6% only once (10.1% in Week 10) according to Fantasy Labs. At his elevated price, he’s in no way my favorite QB play…he’s only $300 away from Russell Wilson…but he’s going to be 6% owned again in by far the highest total of the week at 54. It seems like just yesterday I was writing about the underrated Saints defense. Now, the Saints defense is getting over-hyped after matchups against Mitch Trubisky, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Brett Hundley. Don’t get me wrong, I do think the Saints have a decent defense, but it’s not elite. Also, they will be without both of their boundary corners Marshon Lattimore or Ken Crawley. The Saints’ 26th ranked run defense DVOA should help open up the passing game as well. I love stacking Todd Gurley with the Rams passing game, because he’s involved in every facet of the offense and you get exposure to all offensive touchdowns of a team with a 28 implied total. The volume has not been there for Sammy Watkins this season, but Robert Woods is out for this game and Watkins will be lining up against backup corners. It only takes one or two plays for Watkins to hit value. On the other side, I’ll flip a coin on the Saints running backs and play Alvin Kamara in a pace up game for the Saints as 2-point road underdogs. People don’t like playing opposing running backs from the same game, even though Gurley and Kamara are all-purpose backs. This stack is for tournaments.
Good luck this week, and feel free to reach out with questions/feedback on twitter @EvanRosenberg0. I would love to hear your thoughts and discuss further.