Welcome back and to Week 5. Like most weeks, I had some good and some bad in last week’s Stacks Report. The Eagles passing game did not go according to plan and Alshon Jeffery ended up being shadowed by Casey Hayward…but fortunately I played enough Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins stacks to make up for it. I hope everyone had a profitable Week 4 and that maybe I helped a bit (just lie and say I helped even if I didn’t).
Disclaimer: the Top Stacks Report will be a weekly article highlighting my favorite correlated stacks of the week on both Draftkings and Fanduel. I will be using Draftkings pricing in the headers. Unless one site is specified, I like the stack for both.
Lets dive into Week 5…
Le’Veon Bell ($9,500) and Steelers Defense ($3,900)
I wanted to start out with the obvious stack of the week so you all think I’m smart and sensible (before I start giving you fire Colts/49ers plays). Bell had 35 carries…THIRTY FIVE…and 4 receptions last week against the Ravens. Maybe he just needed a few weeks to get back to speed after missing training camp? I’m not even going to attempt to figure those first few weeks out. The nice part is I don’t have to, because we have 30+ touch Le’Veon Bell back! We just watched the Jets backfield of Bilal Powell and Elijah McGuire combine for a 31-256-2 rushing line and a 6-65 receiving line against these Jaguars. That’s 37 touches for the Jets backfield. Bell had 39 touches last week. Play Le’Veon Bell. Oh, and the Jaguars are 1st in pass defense DVOA (Football Outsiders) and 32nd in run defense DVOA. I don’t think I needed to sell you on Bell, but if you’re still not playing him please send me a head to head invite on Draftkings @erosenberg1020. As 7.5 point home favorites against Blake Bortles, the Steelers defense is a great correlation play with Bell. The Jaguars have a week-low team total of 17.5 and a turnover prone QB in Blake Bortles to give that pick-6 upside. The Steelers are 2nd in the NFL in both sacks and adjusted sack rate per Football Outsiders.
Aaron Rodgers ($8,100), Randall Cobb ($6,700), Dez Bryant ($6,500)
The Packers/Cowboys game is by far the highest total of the Sunday slate at 53. DISCLAIMER: Injuries are going to completely shake up how I approach this game. We still don’t know as of Friday if Ty Montgomery, Jamaal Williams, and Davante Adams will play. If Adams is out, I love Randall Cobb (per usual). Cobb has the best matchup for a Packers wide receiver in the slot against Orlando Scandrick. Cobb missed the Bengals game two weeks ago with a chest injury, then played through it on a short week last Thursday night against the Bears and only had 4 targets, but turned that into 4-44 and a touchdown. Coming off an extra few days of rest, Cobb is fully healthy and off the injury report. Cobb is always my go-to Packers receiver because of the $1,400 price drop off Jordy Nelson. On a week where paying up at running back is important, every dollar counts. As road underdogs projected for 25.25 points with their top two RBs banged up, Aaron Rodgers is easily the top QB play of the week from a raw fantasy points perspective. On the other side of the ball, Dez Bryant is finally in a good matchup. Thus far, Dez’s cornerback matchups: Janoris Jenkins, Aqib Talib, Patrick Peterson, and Trumaine Johnson. Now let’s look at how top receivers have done against this Packers secondary: A.J. Green 10-111-1 and Julio Jones 9-108. Dez is also coming off a 13 target game, so look for him to throw the X up in this one.
Russell Wilson ($7,100), Doug Baldwin ($7,000), and Todd Gurley ($8,000)
It’s good to have the Seahawks back on the main slate, because I get to write about Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin some more! From a non-fantasy perspective, this is the game I’m most interested in watching on Sunday. These are the two teams that will most likely be battling the rest of the way for the NFC West title, and the Rams would love to send a message to Seattle that they have serious competition this year. This game currently sits with the Rams as a 1.5 point home favorite. The interesting part to me is the total has moved up 2 points to 48, making it the second highest total of the week behind Packers/Cowboys. There is relatively no hype about this game outside of Todd Gurley. Last week against the Rams, Dak Prescott had his best game of the season throwing for 252 yards and 3 touchdowns and rushing 3 times for 25 yards. After a slow start to the season, Russell Wilson has been fantasy gold the past two weeks, throwing for a combined 668 yards and 6 touchdowns. What has me most excited about Wilson, is that the mobility he lacked for most of last season due to injuries is back. If you follow me on twitter, I’ve retweeted a few amazing Wilson plays that I don’t think any other quarterback in the league can make. Through 4 games, Wilson is averaging 34.5 yards rushing which is just about adding an additional passing touchdown to his fantasy stats every week…I don’t think people consider that rushing floor as much as they should. I never worry too much about matchup with Russ’ favorite target Doug Baldwin, because he can move around the formation to exploit the weakest matchup on the other side. The good news anyway is that he had a great matchup against slot corner Nickell Robey-Coleman. I think we can expect the Wilson – Baldwin stack to come in at 10%, and I’m always on board for that. On the other side, Todd Gurley is the play. I believe he’s still underpriced at $8,000 for his role in the Rams offense. In a few weeks I think we’re going to be playing 2017 Gurley the way we targeted 2016 David Johnson. Gurley leads the 3-1 Rams in everything: rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. Just keep playing Todd Gurley without question until he reaches $10,000.
Carson Palmer ($5,900), Andre Ellington ($4,600), and Zach Ertz ($6,200)
The Cardinals are throwing the football at a record-setting pace, and we should expect nothing less as 6.5 point road underdogs traveling across the country to Philadelphia. Carson Palmer has thrown the ball 48, 36, 48, and 51 times this season, racking up 300+ yards in 3 of 4 games. I expect the Eagles to control this game and the Cardinals to be forced into comeback mode early in this one; Palmer should see 45+ attempts for a 3rd straight week. Over the past two weeks, Andre Ellington is 2nd on the team with 21 targets and 135 receiving yards (Fitzgerald 22 and 181). Ellington hasn’t had more than 5 carries in a game this season, but his receiving volume makes him a great option this week at his price. The Eagles rank 21st in DVOA covering running backs out of the backfield by Football Outsiders. He’s my favorite stacking partner for Palmer this week. On the other side, Alshon Jeffery is going to be shadowed by Patrick Peterson which should funnel targets elsewhere. Wendall Smallwood is questionable for Sunday’s game and would also be a big loss for the passing game. LeGarrette Blount isn’t going to be catching passes, and I doubt there’s enough faith in undrafted rookie Corey Clement to see the 6 targets Smallwood received last week. Basically, I’m telling you that Zach Ertz could be in for an uptick in targets. He hasn’t seen fewer than 8 in a game thus far, and I think we will see 10-12 this week. The Cardinals ranks 22nd in DVOA covering the tight end, so I think Ertz is in a great spot. With such a high price tag at the tight end position, his ownership will be around 5%.
Stack of The Week
Jacoby Brissett ($5,600), T.Y. Hilton ($6,000), Carlos Hyde ($6,900), and Pierre Garcon ($6,100)
My favorite game to target this week is the Colts/49ers matchup. We saw a 31-28 game between the Colts and Browns 2 weeks ago, and this is a similar matchup between two horrible defenses that could shoot out. The total has moved up 1.5 points to 44.5, so sharp people in Vegas are in agreement. Price per dollar, Jacoby Brissett is my favorite quarterback play for tournaments this week. Against the Browns, Brissett threw only 24 attempts, but had 259 passing yards and a touchdown to go with 5 rushes for 14 yards and 2 touchdowns. Last season I played Tyrod Taylor most weeks, and I have started thinking Brissett is a very similar fantasy option. The Niners are 26th in pass defense DVOA, having allowed 292 yards and 3 touchdowns to Jared Goff and 357 yards and 1 touchdown to Carson Palmer the past 2 weeks. Brissett should be able to make plays in this one. Jack Doyle is not playing, so his 21% of the team’s targets will be distributed elsewhere. I think T.Y. Hilton is one of the best plays of the week, as he gets a matchup with human traffic cone Rashard Robinson in the slot. Outside of the Browns matchup, Hilton has seen some difficult matchups against the Cardinals, Seahawks, and Rams. After only a month together, I think the chemistry should continue to develop and we can see big things from Brissett and Hilton in good matchups like this. My favorite tournament play this week is Carlos Hyde. Without sounding redundant, I’m going to post what I wrote in my Pickem article for this week about Hyde, Hilton, and Garcon:
Carlos Hyde saw 28 and 21 touches the last two-week, which included 6 targets in each. The Niners are 1.5 point road underdogs traveling to Indianapolis against the 23rd ranked run defense by Football Outsiders’ DVOA. The Colts are allowing an average of 26.1 fantasy points to opposing backfields, and Hyde is seeing 74% of team snaps and 69% of team carries…Oh, and did I mention that Hyde has the second most targets and receptions on the team behind Garcon ? Well, he does. People don’t like playing road underdog running backs, especially on 0-4 football teams. This is a great matchup for a high volume running back in a game that should stay competitive. The total for the Niners/Colts game has risen 1.5 points from 43 to 44.5. With that said, I also like both Pierre Garcon and T.Y. Hilton in a game that could turn into a profitable dfs spot like the Colts/Browns game did. Hilton and Garcon both easily lead their teams in targets and air yards.
As gross as it sounds, the Indianapolis Colts and San Francisco 49ers are going to win us all the money this week.
Good luck this week, and feel free to reach out with questions/feedback on twitter @EvanRosenberg0. I would love to hear your thoughts and discuss further.