Early DraftKings Value Plays- NFL Week 1 (9/8/19)

With week 1 quickly approaching, and plenty of juicy matchups in store, let’s dive into some of the potential value plays for the first week of football on DraftKings. Overall, DraftKings did a good job pricing up the matchups with the highest potential to shootout. In addition, backup players coming into potentially starting roles (See Austin Ekeler or Tony Pollard) have seen a price increase.

However, there are still good values to be found based on preseason performance and/or recent injuries. Below are 1-2 players from each position who are set up to deliver value on week 1. Please note, an update will be provided the week of kick-off.

QUARTERBACK

Matt Stafford ($5,400), Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

You probably read the hype surrounding the Kliff Kingsbury/Kyler Murray Air Raid offense. While I will definitely be keeping a close eye on the Cardinals in week-long and daily fantasy circles, why not load up on their week 1 opponent? If you haven’t heard, the Cardinals defense will be BAD and are missing their top 2 cornerbacks for the first part of the season. So while everyone looks to stack the Cardinals, I will be getting my shares of the Detroit offense. To me, it’s not a matter of IF the Lions put up points, it’s a matter of whether it’s on the ground or through the air.

RUNNING BACK

Matt Breida ($4,000), San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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Jerick McKinnon is down, leaving Matt Breida as the 1b to Coleman’s 1a. Coach Shanahan has coordinated numerous offenses that supported two viable fantasy RB’s. Let’s add a JUICY week 1 meeting with the Tampa Bay Bucs pushing an over/under around 50 points. Don’t forget Jimmy G. is coming off a torn ACL, I fully anticipate the 49ers leaning heavily on their running game. Last but not least, Tampa was #31 DVOA against the run last year. This is a recipe for fantasy success. I’m sure more value will open up as we draw closer to week 1 but Matt Breida will remain firmly in the conversation as the best point per dollar play.

WIDE RECEIVER

Curtis Samuel ($4,200), Carolina Panthers vs. Los Angeles Rams

All aboard the Curtis Samuel hype train. I am your conductor! Like you have probably heard a million times this offseason, Mr. Samuel is a prime breakout candidate in season-long fantasy leagues. I think the breakout starts in week 1 and for DFS purposes, we get our hands at probably his lowest price of the season. Starting in week 12 last year, when Curtis saw more than 80% of the teams snap shares, he averaged 11.6 FFPG on DraftKings. The floor is 3X the value with upside for MUCH more facing a Rams team (that has a good defense on paper) that Vegas projects to be one of the highest-scoring games of Week 1.

David Moore ($3,500), Seattle Seahawks vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The D.K. Metcalf injury opened value at the #2 WR pass-catcher position for the Seahawks. While this isn’t a glamorous pick, the value at $3,500 is too great to ignore. Add to this a Bengals defense which was ranked #25 DVOA against the pass (and #28 against #2 WR’s) and I anticipate David Moore returning value at his bottom-barrel price tag.

TIGHT END

Hunter Henry ($3,900), Los Angeles Chargers vs. Indianapolis Colts

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More value will probably open up as we get closer to kick-off weekend. Hunter Henry is the 7th most expensive TE on DraftKings which I don’t think necessarily screams VALUE. However, I do think this is one of the lowest prices we will see Hunter all year. If Andrew Luck is healthy, I fully anticipate this game to be high scoring, back and forth affair. It doesn’t hurt that the Colts were also #29 against TE’s last year either.

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DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Detroit Lions ($2,900) at Arizona Cardinals

First article and already breaking my rule of only playing home team defenses on DraftKings. However, I think this is a great spot to be contrarian when building your lineups. The Arizona Cardinals hype machine is out of control at the moment and I fully anticipate a Cardinals Stack to be one of the more popular plays in GPP’s. Playing the Lions defense is a great chance to get some leverage on this situation. As we saw in week 2 of the preseason, the Cardinals offense is going to be prone to giving up plenty of turnovers and sacks as they try to bring the Air Raid to the NFL.

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