Smash Spots
QB
- Jameis Winston (TB) $7,500: Winston carries a practical price tag along with immense upside. The Bucs ranked No. 4 in pass attempts (625) last season, and with the addition of coach Bruce Arians, they stand a good chance to lead the league this season. Winston posted five finishes in the QB1 range in 2018 despite playing just 11 games. Gamers looking for a solid stack could do worse than pairing Winston with Chris Godwin ($6,900), who is $1,000 cheaper than teammate Mike Evans, who missed Friday practice with an illness.
RB
- Chris Carson (SEA) $6,600: Carson’s price tag makes him a much more appealing option than other RBs at the same cost. Marlon Mack, Derrick Henry, and Damien Williams all carry a higher degree of volatility than Carson. Don’t overthink it: he’s the lead dog on the most run-heavy team in football and Seattle is favored at home. Carson also draws a dream matchup. The Bengals ranked No. 29 in fantasy points allowed to opposing backfields.
- Christian McCaffrey (CAR) $8,900: CMC looks ready to hulk out and offers gamers the best option for an elite RB. He’s projected for the second-most fantasy points among the position and faces a Rams defense which ranks No. 14 in fantasy points allowed to running backs. While Ezekiel Elliot faces a weaker defense, it’s fair to wonder if the Cowboys will unleash him given his recent return. He’s also $200 more than McCaffrey.
WR
- Adam Thielen (MIN) $7,400: With his teammate and 1B receiver Stefon Diggs (hamstring) dinged up per usual, Thielen’s potential to see an increased target share jumps. Even if a less-than-healthy Diggs suits up it could more of a decoy move. Simply put, Diggs’ track record of playing hurt doesn’t bode well for his prospects. Putting the icing on the cake for Thielen, he gets to face the Falcons leaky secondary which allowed opponents to average 259.6 receiving yards per game.
- DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) $9,000: Get ready to dish out that salary but don’t worry, Nuk is worth every dollar. Hopkins boasts the highest price tag of any receiver because he’s got the best matchup of the bunch. The Texans are road dogs (+6.5 FanDuel Sportsbook) facing a Saints defense that hemorrhages fantasy points per game. It sets up for a potential ceiling game from Hopkins.
TE
- George Kittle (SFO) $7,300: He’s $500 cheaper than Travis Kelce and gets a fantastic matchup versus Tampa Bay. The freak athlete led the Niners in receiving yards last season and tied for the team lead in TDs. Outside of Marquise Goodwin, San Francisco rolls out an unproven young WR corps. Kittle should feast against the Bucs, who ranked in the top-10 in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
- Evan Engram (NYG) $6,400: Not paying up for Kittle? Pivot to Engram, the third receiving option on the Giants behind Saquon Barkley and Sterling Shepard. Over his last three games of 2018 Engram averaged 14.8 fantasy points per game.
Crash Spots
QB
- Patrick Mahomes (KC) $8,700: Don’t pay for the most expensive QB on the slate when he’s facing the defense which held him to the fewest fantasy points in a game last season (17.82). Jacksonville allowed 17 passing TDs in 2018, the second-best mark behind Minnesota (15). For gamers going all in at QB, Deshaun Watson offers a much better option.
RB
- Kalen Ballage (MIA) $5,700: Although he’s cheaper than backfield mate Kenyan Drake, Ballage should be faded in all contests. Miami’s strategy at present? Tanking. And that’s bad news for its offensive line, which finished dead last in 4for4’s latest o-line rankings. If Ballage slots into the grinder role and Drake plays satellite back, it’s going to be a long season for the former.
WR
- T.Y. Hilton (IND) $7,700: Andrew Luck retired and Jacoby Brissett returns to the helm. That’s not necessarily bad news for Hilton’s outlook, however, just don’t expect the pair to display instant chemistry. Factor in the Chargers top-10 defense in terms of fantasy points allowed to receivers, and it’s clear Hilton slots into the fade category.
TE
- David Njoku (CLE) $5,800: A multitude of factors work against Njoku. He faces stiff competition from target hogs Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry. To make matters worse, the Browns signed free agent TE Ricky Seals-Jones, a surprise cut from the Cardinals. Seals-Jones possesses size-adjusted speed and ranked in the top-10 for average target distance (10.1) in 2018. Cleveland’s matchup against Tennessee should be avoided. The Titans held opposing TEs to the second-fewest fantasy points last season.
Contrarian Value
QB
- Josh Allen (BUF) $6,900: Allen offers the cheapest QB gamers can roster and still feel confident with. Over the Bills final five games last season, Allen averaged a robust 25.2 fantasy points per game. His rushing prowess provides a safe floor and offers TD upside. Despite his talent, the masses will fade him.
RB
- Justin Jackson (LAC) $5,900: All signs point to Austin Ekeler being the chalkier play, but don’t sleep on Jackson for $500 cheaper. He stands a good chance to finish with more fantasy points than his backfield mate in this timeshare.
- Matt Breida (SFO) $5,400: Breida’s sneaky upside makes a solid play for dirt cheap. He ranked No. 9 in true yards per carry in 2018 (4.8), per PlayerProfiler.com. Listed atop the depth chart over Tevin Coleman, he also benefits from playing the Bucs, a team he scored 15.5 fantasy points against last season. Tampa Bay fielded one of the worst overall defenses in 2018 and ranked No. 24 against the run.
WR
- Dede Westbrook (JAC) $5,900: Westbrook projects at low ownership but sure looks like the Jaguars WR1 at present. For what it’s worth, new Jacksonville QB Nick Foles targeted Westbrook more than any other receiver during the preseason. It could be a coming-out party against the Chiefs, who gave up the second-most passing yards per game last season (273.4).
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