QB
Patrick Mahomes (KC) 9,200: Pay up for Mahomes in a potential shootout with the Texans that garnered the highest over/under of the week (55) per FanDuel Sportsbook. Coming off two games in which he didn’t have to do much and failed to reach 20 FD points for the first time this season, Mahomes enters prime rebound territory. With affordable upside plays at D/ST and RB, you don’t have to go the stars and scrubs route to fit him in.
Kyler Murray (ARI) $7,700: Murray comes in with the cheapest price tag on the slate among QBs who boast a floor of over 20 FD points per game (20.31). It’s not always pretty but he gets the job done. The potential return of Christian Kirk and a favorable matchup further boost Murray’s outlook against Atlanta. The Falcons allow the fourth-most overall FD points per game and the second-most to QB (23.90). Consider a stack with Larry Fitzgerald ($5,600) or Kirk ($5,600) if he’s healthy.
RB
Alvin Kamara (NO) $7,900: He’s smashed in weeks he’s seen eight or more targets, and prospects look good for that volume here. Kamara’s also officially questionable after missing Friday practice with an ankle injury, so proceed with caution. If he suits up, though, he’s set up for success. On the surface the Jags defense looks tough against receiving backs, having allowed 23 receptions for 187 yards and one TD. But until they played the Panthers last week Jacksonville hadn’t faced an elite receiving back. Christian McCaffrey notched six catches on eight targets for 61 yards and a TD. Expect similar production from Kamara, who also faces a weak run defense. The Jaguars allow an average of 5.6 YPC to opposing backs, who’ve scored five rush TDs against them. If Kamara can’t go, pivot to Leonard Fournette ($7,300).
Derrick Henry (TEN) $6,700: After he feasted in Week 1 with 28.4 FD points, Henry saw a regression to the mean over the past four weeks and failed to reach 20 FD points again. But his Week 6 matchup against the Broncos feels like a smash spot. Denver gave up five rush TDs in its first five games and also got torched by Leonard Fournette (225 rush yards). According to Football Outsiders, Denver’s defensive line ranks No. 27 in run blocking which is more good news for Henry. He ranks in the top-10 with 387 (No. 7) rush yards, five (No. 5) total TDs, and six (No. 3) breakaway runs per PlayerProfiler.com.
Tevin Coleman (SF) $5,000: Someone please explain Coleman’s price to me like I’m five. FanDuel Sportsbook pegs this as the third-highest total matchup with an over/under of 50.5 points. San Francisco boasts the best run-blocking offensive line in the NFL per Football Outsiders and Coleman rushed 16 times for 97 yards (6.0 YPR) and a score in his first game back from injury. The Rams allow an average of 23.76 FD points to opposing RBs, and Coleman figures to be heavily involved despite the timeshare with Matt Breida.
WR
DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) $8,400: Nuk missed out on the TD party last week, which is crazy because Deshaun Watson threw five of them. Hopkins hasn’t caught one since he snagged two in Week 1. Much like his teammate Will Fuller in Week 5, Hopkins enters Week 6 dripping with blowup game potential. He’s averaging close to nine targets per game and faces a beatable Chiefs defense in a game with the highest over/under of the week (55).
D.J. Chark (JAC) $6,500: He’s made the second-year leap in a big way, averaging 18.40 FD points per game and notched just one game with fewer than 10 FD points. He’s tied for the team lead in targets (7.4 per game) and scored five TDs in five games. Chark also shows chemistry with Gardner Minshew and has separated himself from Dede Westbrook as the team’s No. 1 WR. He draws another tasty matchup against the Saints, who yield the sixth-most FD points to opposing WRs (34.60).
TE
Austin Hooper (ATL) $6,400: Hooper averages more FD points per game (13.46) than Travis Kelce (12.78), Zach Ertz (10.74) and George Kittle (10.70) this season but remains cheaper than all of them. Matt Ryan targeted him at least six times in every 2019 game, and he’s thrown Hooper’s way five times in the red zone. He may not carry the brand name of Kelce, Ertz or Kittle, but Hooper’s elite talent put him in the same tier. For the icing on the cake, no team allows more FD points to the position than the Cardinals (20.02).
D/ST
San Francisco $3,500: The Niners quietly averaged 15.00 FD points per game over their first four games. That’s more than Tyler Body for those keeping track at home. San Francisco’s defense also ranks No. 2 in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) per Football Outsiders. Meanwhile, the Rams’ seven INTs are the fourth-most in the league, and they’ve also lost four fumbles. At bargain-basement price, the Niners are a no-brainer.
Player Pool
QB: Deshaun Watson (HOU) $8,400
RB: Mark Ingram (BAL) $7,500; Leonard Fournette (JAC) $7,300
WR: Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk (ARI) $5,600; Amari Cooper (DAL) $8,100
TE: Will Dissly (SEA) $6,000
D/ST: Washington ($4,200)
Week 5 Rewind
Week 5 was a wasteland in cash games if you didn’t stack Will Fuller and Deshaun Watson. I did not and failed to cash in any of my six 50/50 lineups. The most glaring error in roster construction this week came at QB, where paying down for Kyle Allen and trusting Jamies Winston proved futile. I also tried to make Tyler Eifert a thing at TE, which never works.
At $5,700, Fuller should have been a lock since he hadn’t had a blowup game yet this season and drew a smash spot against Atlanta. It’s a valuable lesson: just because a player is volatile, doesn’t mean they can’t be utilized strategically in cash games. In a perfect world, loading up on high-floor RBs drives down that volatility and negates the downside if the player doesn’t pop.
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QB: Jameis Winston (TB) $7,800 (17.46, 2.3 x value)
QB: Kyle Allen (CAR) $6,500 (11.64, 1.8 x value)
RB: Christian McCaffrey (CAR) $9,100 (44.7, 4.9 x value)
RB: Ezekiel Elliot (DAL) $8,800 (16.1, 1.8 x value)
WR: Marquise Brown (BAL) $5,400 (9.70, 1.8 x value)
WR: Golden Tate (NYG) $4,500 (2.8, 0.6 x value)
WR: Auden Tate (CIN) $5,300 (10.1, 1.9 x value)
TE: Tyler Eifert (CIN) $4,600 (2.4, 0.5 x value)
TE: Mark Andrews (BAL) $6,100 (7, 1.1 x value)
D/ST: Cincinnati ($3,700) (1, 0.3 x value)
D/ST: Arizona ($3,700) (1, 0.3 x value)
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