Fantasy Baseball: News and Notes Week 5

Ryan Zimmerman has had an unreal start to the season and is the best hitting as if he is Barry Bonds 2.0. With that being said, massive regression is coming. He has a ridiculous .432 babip that is over 100 points above his career norm which suggests that his batting average will come climbing down. In addition, Zimmerman has a 39.4% hr/fb which is just above 20 points from his career average. Enjoy this hot streak while you can but I would flip him for someone quickly.

As much as Yankees fans have enjoyed the 2017 version of Aaron Judge, they forget how bad he was in 2016. Now, I can buy the facts that he has made adjustments but those adjustments will not be able to sustain a 46.4% hr/fb. With that being said, some of what Judge is doing is legit. His .330 babip is unsustainable but it isn’t completely ridiculous, like Ryan Zimmerman’s. Judge should hit around .250 the rest of the season but that doesn’t mean everything will come crashing down.

Billy Hamilton is someone that I didn’t want at all this pre season. The argument people always make to me is that he has the potential to steal 80-100 bases. He could very well do this but with a .230 batting average and pretty much nothing everywhere else. Hamilton also has an extensive injury history so there’s always the threat he won’t play 150 games.

Craig Kimbrel is back folks and nobody seems to be talking about it. With the Braves, Kimbrel was a dominant closer and the best in the game by far. Then he got traded twice in two seasons and finally seems to be finding his footing with the Red Sox’s. Control problems have plagued him these last couple season but this season he is on point. Kimbrel’s got a 16.7 k/9 and 2 bb’s issued in 14 innings. When healthy, he is the best closer in baseball.

Andrew Benintendi was a player I wasn’t a big fan of this pre season. This season, he profiled as a guy who would hit 15 homers and steal 10 bases. If you really wanted a player like that why not just draft somebody similar 1o rounds later. It’s safe to say, he has exceeded all my expectations, so far. His peripherals look legit as well because he has a 12.8% hr/fb, 14.1% K, .347 babip. The babip may come down a little but he should still hit around .290-.310.

Gregory Polanco is someone I don’t know what to do with. He is walking more than he ever has and striking out less than he ever has yet can’t seem to get it going. He’s also got a .300 babip which suggests what he is doing is right now is legit. On the other hand, he has a 0.0% hr/fb rate which is a total fluke unless he is injured. The thing to be most worried about with his is that he has a  52.5% ground ball rate which is very worrisome and the worst soft contact rate of his career at 21.5%. To give you some context on the last stat, he posted a 35.7% hard contact rate, and 30.3% the year before. The only conclusion I can have from this is that he is injured. Right before the season started, he happened to injure his shoulder which is probably affecting his overall performance. I would try to trade him before it’s too late.

Freddie Freeman has been a stud this season but he’s the third best first baseman in fantasy this year thanks to the great performances of Ryan Zimmerman and Paul Goldschmidt. Freeman has 11 homers with a .349 batting average but as crazy as it sounds, this is mostly legit. He’s got a .356 babip and is walking more and striking out less. His hard contact rate is even lower than is was last year which suggests he could be getting more doubles and homers. The only unsustainable part of this is his 37.9% hr/fb and the fact that he is hitting 10% more ground balls than last year. Even if he won’t keep up the homer pace expect big production.

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Adam Carter

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