To quote Forrest Gump (1994), “My mama always said life was like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re gonna get.” And that my friends describe Week 9 in fantasy football correctly.
So let’s ask ourselves one question “Do I feel lucky? Well, do ya?” Yeah, we do, so let’s do this!
ATLANTA FALCONS @ DALLAS COWBOYS, 53.5 o/u, Cowboys -9
Sit: Mike Davis, Running Back, Atlanta
I suppose the real question is, who is still starting, rostering, keeping out hope for Davis? Then this is for you. Davis has not rushed for more than 55 yards all season, and he has seen one rushing touchdown, and that was against the New York Jets, October 10. His erratic targets keep him only semi-PPR relevant but without production (2 targets, five yards, six targets 22 yards, and five targets eight yards, his last three games) only nominally relevant.
It is not only time to sit Davis but time to fish or cut bait with him.
DraftKings Sportsbook currently has Davis Over 33.5 -115, under 33.5 -115 rushing yards and over 13.5 -115, and under 13.5 – 115 receiving yards
Start: Ezekiel Elliott, Running Back, Dallas
Last week Elliott was in and out of the game with an injury, and he still out-snapped Tony Pollard 33-to-24. Elliott finished with 10 rushing attempts to Pollard’s four, he had three targets to Pollard’s two, and Elliott led the team in rushing yards.
It wasn’t pretty for the Cowboys last week, and this week they play the Falcons, who have allowed seven rushing touchdowns and two passing touchdowns to the running back position. They have also given up an average of 21.0 fantasy points per game to the position.
Over/Under for this game has moved to 54.5.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ LOS ANGELES CHARGERS, 52.5 o/u, Chargers -2.5
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Sit: Jared Cook, Tight End, Chargers
Cook has been respectable of late…until Donald Parham decided to show up. Last week Cook was on the field for 42% of the offensive snaps and Parham 41%. Cook finished with four targets, four receptions, and 48 yards, and Parham had three targets, three receptions, 39 yards, and a touchdown.
According to fantasypros.com, Parham has a 66.7% efficiency in the red zone compared to Cook’s 60%.
Now add to that the Vikings have not allowed a touchdown by a tight end all season.
Start: Alexander Mattison, Running Back, Vikings
This is contingent on Dalvin Cook’s status for the game. The Chargers have given up 11 rushing touchdowns and two receiving touchdowns to the running back position, and they have also allowed running backs to average 23.6 fantasy points per game against them.
The over/under for the game has dropped to 52.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ LAS VEGAS RAIDERS, o/u 52.5, Chiefs -2.5
The over/under for the game has dropped to 52
Sit: Any Chiefs Wide Receiver Not Named Tyreek Hill
You are only playing Hill because he has been averaging 14.5 targets in the last two weeks, and he also has 11 red-zone targets and four touchdowns (for the season).
Just keep in mind that the Raiders are allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to receivers out wide, the fourth-fewest to the perimeter, and the ninth fewest to the slot receivers.
Start: Derek Carr, Quarterback, Raiders
The Chiefs are currently giving up the second-most fantasy points to the quarterback position (21.9). They have allowed 15 touchdowns on seven interceptions.
Meanwhile, Carr has thrown 13 touchdowns on seven interceptions and is averaging 8.22 yards per attempt.
PlayPicks.com Prop Bets for Tyreek Hill Week 10: receiving yards under 73.5 -115, over 73.5 -115, receptions made under 6.5 -111 (BetMGM lines)
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ WFT, o/u 51.5, Buccaneers -9.5
Sit: Antonio Gibson, Running Back, WFT
You know the story the Buccaneers are really good against the run. They have only given up two rushing touchdowns to the position (but they have given up four passing touchdowns to the position, hello JD McKissic).
Then there is the concern on whether Gibson is healed. Either way, this game is suited more for McKissic than Gibson.
Start: Chris Godwin, Wide Receiver, Buccaneers
The WFT has allowed the second-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position. This includes the second-most points to the slot position. Godwin has run 69% of his routes out of the slot.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS, o/u 49.5, Packers -4
Sit: AJ Dillion, Running Back, Packers
Dillion has been on the field for 23%, 40%, and 38% of the offensive snaps in the last three weeks. Aaron Jones has been on the field for 73%, 66%, and 63% of the offensive snaps during the same time.
In the two games, Aaron Rodgers was under center. Jones has six rushing attempts and five targets for Week 7 to Dillion’s three rushing attempts and two targets. In Week 8, Jones had 15 rushing attempts and 11 targets, to Dillion’s 16 rushing attempts and zero targets.
The Seahawks are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to the running back position and 24.4% of the receiving yards to the running backs.
Dillion might be becoming a thing in Green Bay, but it looks like it is Jones’ backfield right now.
Start: Tyler Lockett, Wide Receiver, Seahawks
Russell Wilson is back. Lockett has not had a touchdown since Week 2. In the three weeks he played with Geno Smith, he had 16 receptions, 12 coming Week 8 against Jacksonville.
So the pessimist could say just as he is getting together with Smith, Wilson comes back. Or the optimist could remember he had 25 targets, 333 receiving yards, and three touchdowns in the four games with Wilson.
BETMGM Player Props: Tyler Lockett receiving yards over 66.5 -115 under 66.5 -115,
AJ Dillion rushing yards over 41.5 -115, under 41.5 -115; Aaron Jones rushing yards over 61.5 -115, under 61.5 -115
LOS ANGELES RAMS @ SAN FRANCISCO NINERS, o/u 49.5, Rams -4 Monday Night Football
Sit: Tyler Higbee, Tight End, Rams
This has nothing to do with the recent acquisition of the Rams.
In their last three games, Higbee has been on the field for 100%, 69%, and 97% of the offensive snaps. He has had eight, three, and 10 targets for those games. He did not reach over 55 receiving yards and has not seen the end zone since October 7.
Now he will play the Niners, who are only giving up an average of 5.9 fantasy points per game to the tight end and have only allowed three tight ends to score.
Start: Brandon Aiyuk, Wide Receiver, Niners
Last week Aiyuk had a target share of 20.5%, which tied with George Kittle and behind Deebo Samuel (23.1%). Aiyuk was on the receiving end of eight targets, six receptions, 89 yards, and a touchdown.
This will come in handy as Samuel will likely be seeing more of Jalen Ramsey.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS, o/u 47.5, Colts -10.5
Sit: Nyheim Hines, Running Back, Colts
The Jaguars have given up the fourth-fewest PPR fantasy points per game (12.6) to running backs in their last three games. Hines was a stud last week with six targets, four receptions, 34 to go with his six rushing attempts, one touchdown, and 74 rushing yards. But before that game, he had not rushed for over 25 yards in five weeks. He also did not see more than six targets, have more than four receptions, and accumulate more than 35 receiving yards.
Start: Marvin Jones Jr., Wide Receiver, Jaguars
Jones has 70% perimeter work. The Colts have allowed the second-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position (27.6), including giving up 15 touchdowns to the position (the most in the NFL).
Their generosity includes the most over expected and fourth-most to the perimeter.
BUFFALO BILLS @ NEW YORK JETS, o/u 47.5, Bills -13
Sit: Elijah Moore, Wide Receiver, Jets
The Bills are giving up the least amount of fantasy points to the wide receiver position (13) and have only allowed two touchdowns from the wide receivers.
Mike White will be the starting quarterback for this game. In White’s last completed game, Moore was third in targets (6) but only managed 67 yards and zero touchdowns.
Start: Emmanuel Sanders, Wide Receiver, Bills
This is the Bills get right, shake off last week, make Josh Allen (the quarterback) an MVP candidate again. So look for lots of passing, and while Cole Beasley led the team in targets last week in their abysmal effort ( yeah, I’m slightly bitter), Sanders was second on the team in targets and second on the team in receiving yards.
Over the past month, the Jets are giving up fantasy points to the right perimeter receivers and the slot (12th most).
BETMGM.com Player Props: Emmanuel Sanders receiving yards over/under 49.5 -115
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ TENNESSEE TITANS, o/u 45, Titans -3
Sit: Adrian Peterson, Running Back, Titans
The Saints are giving up the third-fewest fantasy points per game to the running back position (14.5). They have allowed running backs to rush for a touchdown four times all season.
Peterson is remarkable, no doubt. But last week, he averaged 2.1 yards per carry, and at this point, he is touchdown-dependent for fantasy value.
Start: Deonte Harris, Wide Receiver, Saints
This depends upon who is under center for the Saints. If it is Trevor Siemian, Harris is in play. Last week he was targeted a team-high eight times for six receptions and 52 yards.
The Titans are giving up the most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position (30.3), and they have allowed 12 touchdowns.
The Lines break down of player props for Adrian Peterson: Rushing Yards Caesars Sportsbook over 33.5 +100, BETMGM under 34.5 -115, and PointsBet under 37.5 -115
CLEVELAND BROWNS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS, o/u 45, Patriots -1.5
Sit: Baker Mayfield, Quarterback, Browns
Mayfield had a good *FU* game last week, compiling 218 passing yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions. That was then. This week he goes against Bill Belichick and a resurging Patriots defense who are currently the third-best defense against quarterbacks in fantasy. The Patriots are giving up an average of 14.4 fantasy points per game, have allowed 12 passing touchdowns, hauled in 13 interceptions, and accounted for 19 sacks.
Start: Brandon Bolden, Running Back, Patriots
Monitor the status of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, who both have to clear concussion protocol to play. IF they don’t look for Bolden to take up the reigns and be the lead back in this backfield.
Given that New England runs the ball on average 43.16% of their offensive plays (9th in the league), whoever is the primary back should have plenty of opportunities.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ DENVER BRONCOS, o/u 45, Broncos -2.5
Sit: Courtland Sutton, Wide Receiver, Broncos
There is a good chance that Darius Slay will shadow Sutton. The Eagles have allowed the fewest fantasy points to right perimeter receivers, Slay’s primary side.
Start: Jordan Howard, Running Back, Eagles
So it’s Howard’s world, and we are all just flabbergasted bystanders. Howard has inexplicably become the lead back in Philly. In the last two weeks, he has had three touchdowns and 128 rushing yards. Last week he had 17 rushing attempts, Boston Scott had 10, and (my man) Kenneth Gainwell had two.
This will be no easy feat as the Broncos are only giving up 98.3 average rushing yards per game (6th ranked), but they did allow D’Ernest Johnson to rush for 146 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries. Of course, last week, they held an injured Ezekiel Elliott to 51 yards on 10 carries.
DraftKingsSportsBook.com has Howard o/u 41.5 rushing yards -115
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS, o/u 44.5, Cardinals -10
Sit: PJ Walker, Quarterback, Panthers
The Panthers signed Cam Newton, and this displays a glaring lack of trust in Walker. So if they don’t trust him, why would you?
Besides, the Cardinals are giving up the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to the quarterback position (14.6).
Start: James Conner, Running Back, Cardinals
This is a temper your expectations PSA. Chase Edmonds is out, and Conner smashed last week with three touchdowns, 96 rushing yards, and 77 receiving yards.
Conner isn’t built to carry the majority of the workload day in and day out as good as he is. The Cardinals run the ball on 50.1% of their offensive plays (4th most), so the volume will be there if he can hold up.
But keep in mind Carolina is giving up the seventh-fewest fantasy points to the running back position (15.41).
DETROIT LIONS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS, o/u 43.5, Steelers -9.5
Sit: Jared Goff, Quarterback, Lions
There is a chance with the bye week you were considering playing Goff. In his last three starts, he has thrown one touchdown and three interceptions. He is rocking a 66.9% completion percentage for the season, with eight touchdowns, six interceptions, and 22 sacks.
This just seems like a game you want to start the Steelers’ defense.
Start: Najee Harris, Running Back, Steelers
Duh! I know, but in case you forgot, the Lions are giving up the second-most fantasy points to the running back position (26.2) and have allowed running backs to score 10 rushing touchdowns and six receiving touchdowns.
There you go, my attempt at rectifying last week’s abomination. Always available (with some time lag) on Twitter @gladysLtyler
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