Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Devin Singletary

RB Devin Singletary (Buffalo Bills) | 2nd Year

2019 Stats: 151 carries for 775 yards, 2 TD; 29 receptions for 194 yards, 2 TD touchdowns

All in all Devin Singletary had a productive rookie season for the Buffalo Bills, with 969 yards from scrimmage on 180 touches. His 5.1 average yards per carry tied with Derrick Henry for the highest among running backs with at least 150 carries.

But early in the season, Singletary had a limited role. He had just 10 carries and five catches in the first two games (all of the catches in Week 1), then he missed three games with a hamstring injury. In his first two games back, he totaled 10 carries with a receiving touchdown on four catches the second contest.

Starting in Week 9 against the Washington Redskins, Singletary had at least 14 carries in seven of his last eight games last season with at least 60 yards on the ground six times in that span. Widening out to total yards, Singletary had at least 50 in each game from Week 9-15 with more than 70 total yards six times and over 100 four times.

From Week 9-Week 16, with a rest for a Week 17 game that was irrelevant for the Bills, Singletary was RB16 in standard fantasy leagues, RB18 in full PPR and RB17 in half-PPR. Extrapolate his raw numbers over 16 games, and you’d get 262 carries for 1,206 yards and 40 catches (on 50 targets) for 272 yards. That would have been good for RB16 in full PPR for the season through Week 16 (199.8 fantasy points) and RB15 in standard scoring.

A major shortfall for Singletary as a rookie was in the touchdown department. He had four total scores for the season, and just two during his strong run in the second half. He had 18 red zone carries, which isn’t that bad, but 12 of them came in just three games and even with a lesser role Frank Gore had 16 red zone carries from Week 9 on.

The Bills drafted Utah running back Zack Moss in the third round, and general manager Brandon Beane confirmed what the rookie’s role will be.

“I think more of the goal line and things like that as we did with Frank last year, you’ll see Zack do. I think Devin will do a similar role that he had,”

Further holding down Singletary’s scoring potential is quarterback Josh Allen. He has 17 rushing scores over the last two seasons, with a total of 43 red zone carries (more than a 30 percent share in both seasons). Allen also runs a lot in general (109 attempts in 2019), and that is not going away as a core part of his game.

Even with the addition of Stefon Diggs, the Bills should still run the ball plenty this year. So being the No. 1 back from the start will foster good volume for Singletary, even if Moss gets 100 touches and Allen takes away 90-100 rush attempts.

Singletary was a solid RB2 for fantasy once he became the lead guy last year, but it’s hard to see a whole lot more for him in 2020. Staying in the same place you were (or would have been, if we’re projecting) doesn’t qualify as a breakout. And truly, there is a measure of downside if big plays aren’t quite as plentiful (14 runs of 15 or more yards last year).

2020  Projection: 215 carries for 965 yards, 3 TD; 33 receptions for 260 yards, 1 TD

Breakout Confidence Level: 20%

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