Another week is in the books and boy were there were tons of unexpected outcomes. Like the Raiders, Buccaneers and Jaguars all earning victories against supposedly “superior” competition, after each failed to score more than 14 points in their Week 1 losses. There was also the Jets beating the Colts on Monday night and making Andrew Luck look bad in the process. Then there’s  Jameis Winston who might be a decent quarterback after all, and of course Johnny Manziel went all “Johnny Football” on the Titans. No one, including myself, saw any of that coming. In fact, my Week 2 predictions can all be summed up nicely in this quote:

“The only true wisdom is in knowing you know nothing” — Socrates

I bet you weren’t expecting a quote from Socrates in a fantasy football article, but let’s face it, predicting the NFL is an impossible task. We in the fantasy sports industry do our best “educated guessing” and then hope our picks pan out so we can brag about them.

But the fact is, I missed more than I hit in Week 2. In my defense everyone thought Drew Brees and the Saints were fantasy gold against the Bucs, we all had Martellus Bennett as a top play, and everyone loved Ameer Abdullah against a Vikings team that got shredded by Carlos Hyde. But that is why we love the NFL, why we tune in every week to watch the games, and it is the reason you’re reading this article.

Fantasy Football: Breakout or Fakeout, Week 2 Surprise Players

Breakout

RB Matt Jones, Redskins (19 car 123 yds 2 TDs)

This may have just become the most attractive “time-share” backfield in the NFL. Matt Jones got 19 carries to Alfred Morris‘s 18. Jones was much more effective with his carries so he got the bulk of the work in the red zone. I can see the Redskins using a “hot-hand” approach for the rest of the season, which is the bane of our existence as fantasy team owners, but the fact remains Jones will be a viable starting fantasy running back for the rest of the season.

RB David Johnson, Cardinals (5 car 42 yds 1 TD, 108 yard kickoff return for a TD)

It’s only a matter of time before coach Bruce Arians realizes Chris Johnson is, well, Chris Johnson. Once that happens, David Johnson may be good enough to keep the job. Andre Ellington is supposed to only be out a few weeks, but when he comes back he may be playing second fiddle to David Johnson by then. By my count David Johnson has 7 offensive touches and has converted two of those into touchdowns. That’s a pretty good ratio by any measurment and that doesn’t include his 108 yard kickoff return in Week 2. He averaged 8.4 yards per carry against the Bears, which granted he only had five carries, but it’s not like those numbers were inflated by one huge run, as his longest run on Sunday was a mere 14 yards.

Chris Johnson on the other hand was very “Chris Johnson-esque” on Sunday with 20 carries for 72 yards (3.5 yards per carry). David Johnson is the Johnson you want to own from the Cardinals for the rest of the season, especially if you’re an Ellington owner.

RB Dion Lewis, Patriots (7 car 40 yds 1 TD, 6 rec 98 yds)

I had Lewis in this column last week as a breakout candidate and I just wanted to put him here again in case people were worried about LaGarrette Blount stealing his touches and thus limiting his value. Lewis got 13 total touches to Blount’s 2. The Patriots will be hard to figure out from week to week, and Lewis could definitely put up some dud games, but if I’m owning a Patriots back right now it’s Lewis and it’s not close.

TE Crockett Gillmore, Ravens (5 rec 88 yds 2 TDs)

Raise your hand if you saw this one coming? Put your hand down, no you didn’t. Everyone knows Joe Flacco loves to throw to his tight ends. He made Dennis Pita a household fantasy football tight end, and even made Owen Daniels fantasy relevant in 2014. Everyone, myself included, assumed the tight end to own was Maxx Williams. Everyone, myself included, was wrong.

I’m not ready to put him in “top 10” category or anything, but if your current tight end isn’t pulling his weight on your fantasy team, or if you own the walking wounded Jordan Cameron or Jordan Reed, he is worth a waiver wire add this week.

WR Michael Crabtree, Raiders (9 rec 111 yds 1 TD)

Yes, I know, Crabtree does this every year. Just when we start to buy in, he goes back to being Crap-tree. But this time I think it’s legit and I’ll tell you why.

The number 16.

What does the number 16 have to do with Crabtree’s fantasy impact you ask? Easy. Crabtree got a whopping 16 targets on Sunday and nine of them were completed. You give any receiver 16 targets and they are going to be fantasy relevant. Hell, you give me 16 targets and I can be fantasy relevant.

Even Antonio Brown, the best fantasy wide receiver in the game, has only accomplished that feat once in his entire career. Ironically that game was last year against these same Ravens.

Crabtree won’t get 16 targets every game, or possibly ever again, but he had 8 targets in Week 1 which is pretty good in it’s own right and enough to make him relevant again.

QB Derek Carr, Raiders ( 30/46 351 yds 3 TDs 1 int, 2 car 23 yds)

Man did Carr and the Raiders play well in Week 2. Stark contrast to their performance from last week in which they looked lack luster and very “Raider-esque” against the Bengals. Derek Carr has some weapons on the outside with Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree both going over 100 yards receiving in Week 2. He also has a respectable run game with Latavius Murray. Yes, Murray only had 65 yards and a 4.3 ypc average, but that was against a pretty good Baltimore run defense. 

I’m not quite ready to put Carr in a top 12 spot, but he can be a great bye week fill in and potentially could become a starting fantasy QB before long. 

Fakeout

WR Travis Benjamin, Browns ( 3 rec 115 yds 2 TDs, 154 RetYds 1 TD)

Huge game for Benjamin in Week 2 after a solid performance in Week 1. He will be a popular waiver wire addition this week, but I think adding him will be a mistake. He is a big play waiting to happen, no doubt, but in fantasy football counting on big plays can hurt you in the end. Through the first two weeks of the season Benjamin has seven targets. That’s it. Seven. Most starting fantasy wide receivers get more than seven targets in a game, it took Benjamin two games to get there.

I have no doubt that he will be added in nearly every league, and I have no issue with you picking him up as a flier, but don’t drop anyone semi-decent to get him. His production is unsustainable.

WR Torrey Smith, 49ers ( 6 rec 120 yds 1 TD)

Smith finally made an impact with the 49ers after doing nothing in the Week 1 victory over the Vikings. The main reason he makes it to the “fakeout” list is because 75 of his yards came on one play, a play in which the 49ers were already down big and were forced to throw a lot more than they would have liked. The injury to Carlos Hyde also forced the 49ers to throw the ball more, in fact the 46 passing attempts for Colin Kaepernick were a career high. All those attempted passes and Torrey Smith still only got seven targets — or a mere 15%. No thanks.

QB Jameis Winston, Buccaneers (14/21 207 yds 1 TD, 6 car 23 yds 1 TD)

Winston had a better game in Week 2 than he did in his first career start last week. He makes the fakeout list for the simple fact that he really didn’t have to do much. He threw the ball a mere 21 times, completing 14 of them. That’s just not enough volume to be fantasy relevant. The rushing TD was nice but not something you can count on from week to week. Leave him on the waiver wire.

WR Leonard Hankerson, Falcons (6 rec 77 yds 1 TD)

Of all the “fakeouts” in this column, this is the one guy that nearly made it to the breakout list. He received a whopping 11 targets and out targeted Roddy White who only had a single target all game. Slotting Hankerson in the fakeout category is purely a gut call as I believe Hankerson won’t get that many targets in any game for the rest of the season. He is definitely worth an add in all formats but temper your expectations until we see more.

WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, Steelers ( 4 rec 77 yds 1 TD)

Darrius Heyward-Bey makes the fakeout list based on one critically important fact. He is Darius Heyward-Bey.

WR Aaron Dobson, Patriots ( 7 rec 87 yds)

Tom Brady threw the ball 59 times and Dobson was targeted on 14% of those passes. That’s just not a high enough ratio to bring Dobson to fantasy starter status. Leave him on the waiver wire unless your really hurting for depth on your bench or play in an extremely deep league.

QB Blake Bortles, Jaguars ( 18/33 273 yds 2 TDs)

He completed only 54% of his passes and he targeted Allen Robinson on 18 of his 33 attempts. He just doesn’t have enough weapons around him to make him worth starting. Robinson can’t get 182 yards and 2 TDs every week.

Thanks for checking out my fantasy football “Breakout or Fakeout’ article. Do you disagree with something? Let me know by commenting below or on Twitter @GeoffLambert77. Also be sure to subscribe to our newsletter by entering your email below. Good luck in Week 3!

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