Elliott’s Eight: Week 4 Edition
Jacksonville wrecked Baltimore, the Patriots came back in the final minute to beat Houston, and Cam Newton made the Saints defense look…dare I say, good?? The NFL is so unpredictable—just when you think you’ve got it figured out, craziness ensues. Let’s dive in!
Paul Richardson (SEA) WR: Richardson has found the end zone for two consecutive weeks now. While he only has eight receptions on the year, he’s amassed 19 targets, good enough for 2nd on the team behind Doug Baldwin. Baldwin left last week’s contest in the 4th quarter with a groin injury. While the severity is unknown, he won’t be 100% against the Colts and their porous secondary. If Baldwin can’t go Sunday, Richardson becomes a prime candidate for increased volume. The Colts have yielded 35 receptions, 562 yards, and 3 TDs to Wide Receivers through the first three weeks. He’s only owned in 2.8% of leagues, odds are you can grab him off the waiver wire.
Josh Doctson (WAS) WR: FINALLY! Finally we see why Washington took the former TCU wideout in the first round of the 2016 NFL draft. I know what you’re thinking. “Elliott, he had ONE catch that went for a touchdown and he’s only had three targets on the year.” Yes, I’m fully aware. I’m not saying to play him next week against a stingy KC defense. But notice that he’s trending upwards. Each week his snap count percentage has steadily increased. Pryor has been a bust, Reed is banged up (shocker), and Crowder hasn’t lived up to the hype he created last season. He’s available in nearly 70% of leagues–the upside is there, stash him on your bench while his relationship with Kirk Cousins continues to blossom like a beautiful flower.
PANIC or RELAX!
Terrelle Pryor Sr. (WAS) WR: Just BUST a move! GhostBUSTers. The Good, The Bad, and The BUST. ;Okay, I’m not proud of that last one but you get my point. Oh how I feel for you if you wasted a third round pick on this fella. Through the first three weeks of the season, Pryor has brought in a whopping ten balls for 116 yards and no scores. Chemistry is complex in the science world, but it’s even more complex in the football world. Kirk Cousins and Pryor look like a first date on the field—they’re both attracted to one another and want to make it work but the trust isn’t there yet. With Chris Thompson dominating catches out of the backfield and the rise of Josh Doctson, Pryor will continue to fade. He also will be shadowed by Marcus Peters on Monday night. OUCH. PANIC!
Joe Mixon (CIN) RB: Eight rushes in week 1, nine rushes in week 2, EIGHTEEN in week 3! Cincinnati’s new Offensive Coordinator, Bill Lazor, clearly wants to keep his job longer than Ken Zampese (he’s already halfway there). The team was previously implementing a three-headed RB monster, equally dividing up carries between Jeremy Hill, Giovanni Bernard, and Joe Mixon. Our prayers were answered and the Bengals fed Mixon 21 times (he added 39 yards on three receptions). While his 3.44 ypc wasn’t jaw-dropping, he looked powerful and elusive. He gets a tasty matchup against Cleveland. Expect Mixon to be called on early and often. The wait is over, your 4th round draft pick is about to pay off. RELAX!
DFS Value Plays:
Jay Cutler (MIA) QB: $7,300 vs. New Orleans
Smokin’ Jay Cutler has to travel 4,426 miles to get his dream matchup. He has sucked pretty bad the first two weeks but if there’s any defense that can make the worst of QBs look glorious, it’s the Saints. Cam Newton had an off week agaisnt them this past Sunday, but he was playing without Greg Olsen for the first time and then Kelvin Benjamin exited early with an injury. Checking down to McCaffrey can only get you so far. The Saints still remain the worst secondary in the NFL. With 6’4 DeVante Parker and a speedy Jarvis Landry, Cutler will slice through them like a hot knife through butter. Prior to last week’s game against Carolina, the Saints have yielded 6 passing touchdowns and an average of nearly 400 ypg.
Joe Mixon (CIN) RB: $5,600 vs. Cleveland
I love Mixon for DFS this week. He’s priced at freakin’ $5,600! That’s nothing! When he totals over 100 yards and a score against Cleveland, he’ll jump to nearly $7,000 next week I’d guess. Mixon finally has the reigns on the backfield in Cincinnati, proving himself as not only a powerful runner but a receiving threat as well. His total number of touches have increased each contest and I expect with the game flow they will yet again.
DeVante Parker (MIA) WR: $6,500 vs. New Orleans
Remember a few weeks ago when I basically picked the entire Minnesota offense as my sneaky DFS plays because they were going against the Saints defense? If you listened you probably dominated your lineups. Parker is 6’4, 210 lbs. That’s a big fella. He’s been Cutler’s favorite target the first two weeks averaging six receptions and 80 yards per contest. I wouldn’t be surprised if he surpasses both averages in what should be a London shootout.
Jared Cook (OAK) TE: $5,500 vs. Denver
I hate picking a player to perform well against my Broncos, but there’s no hiding the facts—for the last few years Denver has been pretty abysmal at covering the Tight End. Jason Witten hauled in 10 receptions for nearly 100 yards and a TD in week 2, and Charles Clay cashed in last week. When your corners are Chris Harris Jr. and Aqib Talib, it’s difficult to hit your receivers. Denver boasts the 3rd best run defense to start the season so I don’t expect Marshawn to have much success. Cook scored his first TD of the season Sunday night on an athletic run and catch, showcasing his abilities. Oakland won’t score many points, but the ones they do have a good chance of coming from Jared Cook.
I wish you all the best of luck this week. You can praise me if I’m the reason you win but you can’t come after me if I’m the reason you lose 🙂