With a little over three weeks until kickoff, it’s time to start preparing and doing some pre-draft research that will help you select a championship caliber team. While first-round picks and top-tier talents are extremely important, sleepers can make or break your season. At the same time, busts could derail your championship season. Here are my thoughts on potential sleepers and busts at the three highest scoring positions: quarterback, running back, and wide receiver.
Sleeper QB: Tyrod Taylor Cleveland Browns
Last season, Taylor unexpectedly lead the Bills to the playoffs using his escapability to extend plays and create more opportunities for the offense. This offseason, he was traded to the Browns where he has a fresh start with some tough competition from the No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield. With the Browns the subject of the HBO show Hard Knocks, Taylor can be seen entering the team facility at 5 a.m earlier than any of his other teammates and being the last one to leave, showing his dedication to furthering his success of last season.
Now he will have the opportunity to throw the ball to Jarvis Landry one of the best possession receivers in the NFL, who had at least five receptions in every game last season. In addition to Landry, Taylor has Josh Gordon whose massive hands and freakish physique make him one of the toughest covers in the league when he returns to the team. Duke Johnson Jr. is a great receiver out of the backfield and David Njoku has shown some early promise in the preseason catching two tds in the team’s first game.
Once all of his weapons return, Taylor has the potential to be a top 12 fantasy quarterback making him an extremely enticing late-round sleeper.
Bust QB: Alex Smith Washington Redskins
The Redskins offense took a huge hit in their first preseason game, losing Derrius Guice who was expected to solve many of their running back woes from seasons’ past. Guice is an extremely talented power back, who was expected to take much of the pressure off Smith. Now the starting running back is Chris Thompson, an outstanding receiving back not known for his downhill running ability. Opposing defenses will be able to gameplan for Thompson’s great receiving ability and will force him to run the ball more often.
Besides the loss of Guice, Washington’s top two weapons Jamison Crowder and Jordan Reed have battled numerous injuries and been inconsistent in seasons’ past. Reed has never played a full season before, sustaining numerous concussions in the past. Besides Crowder who primarily is utilized out of the slot, there are question marks about the outside receivers. Paul Richardson has been thrust into the largest role of his career and Josh Doctson also struggles with injury issues.
Smith does not have anywhere near as talented weapons now as he did in Kansas City last season. He is a week to week starter at best not someone you can rely on to be your consistent quarterback throughout the season.
Sleeper RB: Derrick Henry Tennessee Titans
Henry comes into this season after his dominant performance last postseason against the Chiefs running all over Bill Sutton’s talented defense. He showcased the great combination of power and speed that lead the Titans to victory. In addition to his massive frame and deceptive speed, he is running behind a great offensive line anchored by Taylor Lewan one of the best tackles in the league. New coach Mike Vrabel will not shy away from the run game, he was a very physical player and will run his team the same way.
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Opposing defenses can try forcing Marcus Mariota to beat them, but he has plenty of talented weapons including Corey Davis and Delanie Walker. Without stacking the box it is very hard to limit Henry’s production because of his great ability to bounce off of tacklers. In addition, management signed the perfect complement to Henry, Dion Lewis. He is a much smaller back who is a great receiving threat out of the backfield.
According to ESPN’s Fantasy running back rankings, Henry is not a top 15 fantasy running back, regardless of league type. Do not be surprised if he finishes the season as a top ten fantasy running back and has over 1200 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Bust RB: Kenyan Drake Miami Dolphins
If you are looking for a reliable fantasy option, it’s a smart idea to stay away from the Miami Dolphins offense. Their best weapon was traded to the Dawg Pound, leaving Ryan Tannehill with many questions including who his new number one wide receiver will be. Opposing defenses will be aware that the receiving corps has many question marks and will force Tannehill to beat them stacking the box against the run. When opposing defenses stack the box it will be very difficult for Drake to find running room, which means he has to be an even more important weapon in the passing game.
In addition, veteran Frank Gore is returning to Miami for what is most likely his last season meaning he will be taking away some carries from Drake. Competing against a seasoned veteran and playing on a struggling offense, Drake is going to struggle mightily this season. According to ESPN, Drake is ranked as the 17th highest running back, a very generous preseason ranking for a player on a struggling offense who will have to share carries with a seasoned veteran.
Do not be surprised if Drake finishes the season, outside of the top 25 fantasy running backs.
Sleeper WR: Julian Edelman WR New England Patriots
After tearing his ACL last season, Edelman was suspended the first four games of this season for violating the NFL’s PED policy. Having to wait an extra month to get back on the field in regular season action with his teammates, will give Edelman further motivation to dominate once he gets back on the gridiron. Tom Brady will be very anxious to have his safety net back on the field after Danny Amendola left for the division rival Miami Dolphins. Although it was two seasons ago, Edelman was one of the best fantasy receivers in 2016 and has the tools to duplicate the same production when he returns to the field week five.
When drafting Edelman keep in mind that it’s a long-term investment for the whole season because after he returns Week 5 it will be very hard to take him out of the starting lineup. People will overlook drafting Edelman because he has that big S next to his name, but his long-term potential for the whole season makes him an extremely enticing selection.
Do not be surprised if after he returns from suspension, Edelman finishes as a top 12 fantasy wide receiver and makes an important impact in the fantasy playoffs.
Bust WR: Demaryius Thomas WR Denver Broncos
Last season Case Keenum was outstanding for the Vikings playing in Pat Shurmur’s system with two very talented receivers Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Without Shurmur’s guidance and a talented receiving running back, it will be much tougher for Keenum to duplicate the success of last season.
There are some question marks at the running back position as well, with rookie Royce Freeman and DeVontae Booker battling it out to see who will be the starter come Week 1. With question marks at the running back position and a new offensive scheme, it will be very tough for Keenum to build the same great report he had with his offense last season.
Thomas is widely considered by numerous fantasy sites a top 15 receiver for this upcoming season, but with the question marks surrounding the Broncos offense do not be surprised if he finishes the season outside of the top 20. He had his lowest yards and receptions total since 2011 last season and expect that trend to continue this season.
Depending on the size of the league, Thomas should be at the earliest an eighth-round selection not reflective of a top fantasy receiver.
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