Fantasy Football Week 15 Preview

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Texans at Jets

As I am typing this the Jets placed Isaiah Crowell on IR.  This puts Elijah McGuire in the driver’s seat as their RB1 the rest of the way.  I don’t think he is very usable this week, as the Texans are a dominant defense against running backs.  The best way to beat this team is with speed on the outside. So fire up Robby Anderson as a solid upside sleeper.  Quincy Enunwa and Jermaine Kearse see decent targets, but if you’re starting a Jet at this point in the season you are shooting for upside.  

The Texans take care of business against bad teams, and this game should be no different.  I love Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins, even with Morris Claiborne having a great year for the Jets.  Hopkins is leading the league in target share (again) with 31.5 percent of the total team targets. This does limit the upside of any other Texans player, but I do like Lamar Miller.  He’s scored at least 12 PPR points in six of his last seven games and the Texans should cruise to a victory.

 

Browns at Broncos

I saw last weeks upset coming a mile away.  The Broncos lost their two best players and were expected to win a game on the road?  I wasn’t surprised that the 49ers torched them. I could see the same happening again.  The Broncos are starting three rookies at WR and will need a massive game from Phillip Lindsay to stay in this one.  Daesean Hamilton would be my favorite guy of the bunch, as he took over the high-volume slot role. Tim Patrick did lead the team in targets, but he’s competing on the outside with Courtland Sutton.  I don’t think that happens again.

Baker Mayfield continues to prove that he is the real deal.  This Broncos defense is very bad without their All-Pro CB Chris Harris.  Mayfield can slide in the pocket to avoid the pass rush and his receivers will be open often.  This is also a bounce-back spot for the Browns RBs. This team wants to funnel targets to them, but matchups dictated a slot-heavy game plan the last few weeks.  While Jarvis Landry does have a good matchup with no Harris, I think Nick Chubb and Duke Johnson will be the focus.

 

Cardinals at Falcons

David Johnson caught a season-high eight balls last week.  He turned them into 12 receiving yards. The Falcons give up a lot of passes to running backs, but I think the exact same could easily happen.  Larry Fitzgerald has a good matchup in the slot and both of these teams are really bad. I could see a high-volume game from him, and he usually converts his targets into catches.  

 

Julio Jones has been on a tear (except the one week I played him in DFS) and he has Patrick Peterson this week.  Peterson has shadowed more as of late, so this will be a fun matchup. This could be a boom week for Calvin Ridley.  Falcons are at home and Ridley will be facing David Amerson. He should cook him with his route running. Ito Smith vs Tevin Coleman will be the debate of the week.  I think Smith has the edge, as he’s been trending up while Coleman has been trending down. Coleman has been such a disappointment, but he has the playmaking ability to dominate a game when no one sees it coming.  

 

Raiders at Bengals

This just looks like an awful game on paper.  As we dive deeper into it, it seems even worse.  These teams play at the slowest paces and the Raiders have been the worst road team on the season.  Derek Carr has played well lately, but their offense doesn’t travel well. The matchup looks fine, but I’m not trusting any Raider outside of Jared Cook.  

I love Joe Mixon.  He saw over 20 touches last week and he’s at home against a really bad Raiders D.  The team will continue to feature him, as Jeff Driskel has really struggled to sustain drives with his arm.  John Ross is in a good spot as well. He’s a sneaky play that could easily have a massive week against this really bad secondary.  Not much else I’m interested in from this game.

 

Dolphins at Vikings

The Dolphins are coming off of a miracle, emotional win against a division rival and are now traveling to Minnesota to take on the Vikings who were just embarrassed in primetime.  I give them a 5 percent chance to beat the Vikings. Kenyan Drake single-handedly won last weeks game, but he did it on six touches. These guys are hellbent on giving Frank Gore the ball 20 times a game despite his limited explosiveness.  Kenny Stills has been hot lately, and that could continue. He likely will not see Xavier Rhodes, giving him a plus matchup. With his speed, he could wreck this game.

This is a Dalvin Cook game.  He’s been highly involved in the passing game the last two weeks and now they fired their OC because they weren’t running the ball enough.  If that isn’t signal for Cook then I don’t know what is. I expect them to control the game and Cook should thrive. Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen both have great matchups, as Xavien Howard just had a knee scope.  Usually, that’s a two-week procedure, but even if he played he’d be vulnerable.

 

Cowboys at Colts

This will be a very interesting matchup for the Colts WRs.  It basically comes down to how much pre-snap motion they use to give them free releases at the line, and how well they can beat the press.  They have done a great job doing this with T.Y. Hilton the last few games, so I think he should be in line for another massive game. Eric Ebron has seen 24 targets over the last two weeks, so it would be smart to roll with him again.  The Cowboys got abused by Dallas Goedert even with the BS OPI that would have sealed the game.

Ezekiel Elliott caught 12 balls last week and the Colts give up the second-most receptions to running backs.  I ran a poll back in August asking how many receptions people thought Zeke would have this season. The most popular answer was 40-49.  He’s done that in his last six weeks alone. Amari Cooper had a massive game, but I think he’s an easy fade this week. He has been up and down ever since joining the Cowboys and this just feels like a Zeke game.  Dak Prescott is still a great streamer, and he gets Tampa Bay next week so pick him up while you can.

 

Buccaneers at Ravens

Jameis Winston is stuck in this purgatory where he has a couple good games and then a couple bad games.  The Buccaneers are in a tough spot because they could easily move on from him, but he keeps flashing upside.  This game will be telling what they want to do with the franchise. If he goes into Baltimore and lights up the Ravens, then I think they extend him.  If he (predictably) flops, then I think he’s gone after this season. Cameron Brate is a solid streamer again, as the Ravens cover everything well except the tight ends.  Brate has three touchdowns over the last three games and should keep that rolling despite the limited opportunities. Mike Evans has a tough matchup with Jimmy Smith, but he’s the type of receiver that can shake free easily.  It’ll be dependent on how well Winston is spinning it.

Lamar Jackson is the certified starter so I’m going to keep rolling with him.  Gus Edwards showed why he can’t be trusted, as he got vultured by Kenneth Dixon, struggled to create without wide open running lanes, and still got blanked in the passing game.  I think Kenneth Dixon’s role expands and he takes over the backfield for the rest of the season. I wouldn’t roll out any Ravens receiver, but Willie Snead has been very consistently average.  He has a good matchup in the slot.

 

Lions at Bills

Josh Allen has over 300 yards rushing over his last three games.  Maybe he is what we hoped Lamar Jackson would be? I think he keeps it rolling.  Chris Ivory should take over as the lead back with LeSean McCoy banged up. He’s not very exciting and Allen steals tons of rushing work from him, but he’ll see 20 touches.  Robert Foster went for over 100 yards last week and I think he could do it again. The Lions aren’t a good secondary and they just lost Ziggy Ansah, their best pass rusher. Allen should have time to find his deep receivers.

The Lions offense is just disgusting.  I wouldn’t even trust Kenny Golladay against Tre White.  I’m just gonna move onto the next game.

 

Packers at Bears

I thought that the only thing holding the Packers back was Mike McCarthy (and injuries, of course).  Then Philbin takes over and finds a way to squander two timeouts and both his challenges in under two minutes.  It was actually unbelievable. They still managed to win the game, but without much work for Aaron Jones in the first half.  The Packers came to their senses in the second half and he turned in a nice box score, but this was still concerning. This game will be very cold and very difficult for Green Bay.  You can always trust Davante Adams and his consistent target share and scoring. I’m trusting Aaron Jones again as well, but it’s risky.

I love the Bears in this matchup.  Tarik Cohen should ball out in the passing game and I even like Taylor Gabriel.  Gabriel has seen at least seven targets in four straight games and he should avoid Jaire Alexander.  He has game-breaking ability and he has seen opportunity. I think he capitalizes on it this week.

 

Redskins at Jaguars

When the Jaguars play in competitive games, Leonard Fournette has seen 29, 30, and 21 touches.  That 21 touch game was one where he was ejected before the fourth quarter. There is literally no way the Redskins blow out the Jaguars, so you can reasonably project 25 touches for Fournette.  We just saw Saquon Barkley break off massive runs against this defense, and Fournette has the same breakaway speed. I would also trust Dede Westbrook in this game. He’ll be facing Greg Stroman, who sounds like a WWE wrestler.

Guess who has given up the most rushing yards and touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks?  Yeah, the Jags. Josh Johnson is coming off of a 25-point, top-5 QB week. I’m trusting him again.  Vernon Davis will take over as the featured TE with Jordan Reed doubtful and I have him as a top-10 play.  

 

Titans at Giants

The Giants ruled out Odell Beckham, which was a little surprising to me.  He said he was healthy enough to play last week and he was healthy on Monday, so I think they are just in pure tank mode.  It’ll be hard to trust Sterling Shepard after seeing just three targets with Odell’s absence last week. Saquon Barkley is an obvious must-start, but this is a good run defense and they’ll likely gameplan a little bit better than Washington.  

Anthony Firkser is a Harvard product that has streaming appeal this week with Jonnu Smith out again.  He had elite college production and has excellent size-adjusted agility. I like Corey Davis based on his target share.  He’s been able to perform despite bad matchups because he just gets fed. Derrick Henry will look to build on his four-touchdown game against the Giants, but this feels like a let-down spot.  He could easily have 10 carries for 36 yards and disappoint everyone.

 

Seahawks at 49ers

Nick Mullens hung 400 yards on the Seahawks in Seattle the last time these teams played.  I think he’ll have success, especially with how George Kittle has been playing. Matt Breida looks like he’ll be healthy.  If he is, he has done nothing to lose his job and he should slide back into his full-time role. Jeff Wilson underwhelmed as a featured guy and I would be shocked if he gets more than 10 touches.  

The Seahawks have been incredibly efficient through the air and it is saving their offense.  This team will not make it far just trying to run the ball 40 times a game. Doug Baldwin is questionable.  If he misses again, Tyler Lockett would slide into the slot role and should see close to 10 targets. David Moore has seen tons of downfield shots that just haven’t landed.  He’s going to explode one of these games. It looks like Chris Carson is still the preferred running back, but you basically need a touchdown. It’s very possible against this defense, but he is a super thin play.  

 

Patriots at Steelers

The annual Patriots-Steelers matchup is upon us!  This one has a very different feel to it because whoever loses this game has a legit shot at missing the playoffs.  I like the Steelers in this one, as Big Ben at home is usually easy money. I don’t think James Conner plays, so Jaylen Samuels looks to be a solid RB2.  The Patriots linebackers are good in run defense, but they are exploitable through the air due to their lack of speed. This also helps Vance McDonald, who is dominant after the catch.  Antonio Brown and Juju Smith-Schuster are locked in WR1s.

My favorite Patriots play is Julian Edelman.  We just saw how the Steelers leave their linebackers on the field to cover slot receivers, and that is the easiest matchup on the field.  Tom Brady will be able to exploit that coverage. You’re starting every other Patriot with confidence, but I’m not in love with any of the matchups.

 

Eagles at Rams

Every Ram is a must-start in this game, as per usual.  They’re going to thrash this banged-up Eagles team.

Nick Foles is likely taking over as the starter with Carson Wentz dealing with a back fracture.  This hurts the offense as a whole, but I think Zach Ertz will be fine. Alshon Jeffery will see shadow coverage from Aquib Talib, but Golden Tate should have an easy time in the slot against Nickel Robey-Coleman.  His snaps have been up and down, but they just have to use him in this game. Josh Adams is still the workhorse for this offense, but with Corey Clement out I could see Darren Sproles having a solid game from a pass-catching standpoint.

 

Saints at Panthers

Alvin Kamara has destroyed the Panthers every time he’s played them, but covering running backs is one of the only things they are good at.  They are very weak in the slot, where Michael Thomas has been lining up. He should dominate this game. Drew Brees on Monday Night Football is usually lights-out, but this is a road game.  He needs a massive game to get back in the MVP lead.

Cam Newton is still dealing with his shoulder injury but it hasn’t affected the offense much.  The Saints are excellent against tight ends and running backs, but Christian McCaffrey sees so much volume that it doesn’t matter.  He could have a massive PPR day without a ton of yardage. I like D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel. They have speed and after-the-catch ability that the Saints struggle with.  They’ll keep this game interesting.

 

That’s all for this week!  Thank you for reading and good luck in this round of the playoffs!  Only one week left, you got this.

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